Sunday · September 13, 2026·full·gamePk 823658past slate · free
refreshed 299h 6m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Target Field
gametime 2:10 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
68°F
humidity 41%
wind
8 mph
out to RF
precip
1%
clear
park
MIN
open · HP→CF 73°
wind impact on total
+0.24 R/Gminor out
Minor wind out: +0.24 R/G vs neutral. _Northwest summer winds — typically wind-in from LF, suppresses RH HR_
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Tanner BibeeRHP · CLE
Joe RyanRHP · MIN
xERA 2026
4.34
3.51
xwOBA 2026
0.320
0.290
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.010
0.011
xERA 2025
3.64
3.43
xwOBA 2025
0.297
0.289
Outs/TB 25-26
1.94
1.99
FIP 25-26
4.47
3.62
kwERA 25-26
3.85
2.75
K% 25-26
20.1%
27.6%
BB% 25-26
7.2%
5.4%
IP 25+26 combined
353.0
300.7
ERA actual 2026
4.22
3.68
ERA (L4)
5.75
8.38
WHIP (L4)
1.52
1.60
K% (L4)
17.6%
18.5%
BB% (L4)
9.9%
3.3%
IP/gm (L4)
5.08
4.83
L4 window
08/22→09/08 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
07/20→09/07 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
99 (−3)
101 (−6)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
6.33 (+1.71)
3.92 (+0.00)
Arsenal RV/100
0.14
0.33
away arsenal — CLE
RV/100 0.14
Cutter—+0.40xwOBA 0.338
4-Seam Fastball—+0.20xwOBA 0.331
Sinker—+0.50xwOBA 0.359
Changeup—-0.50xwOBA 0.235
Curveball—-0.30xwOBA 0.305
Sweeper—+0.00xwOBA 0.308
home arsenal — MIN
RV/100 0.33
4-Seam Fastball—+0.20xwOBA 0.322
Sweeper—+0.70xwOBA 0.218
Split-Finger—+0.80xwOBA 0.270
Curveball—+1.00xwOBA 0.186
Sinker—-0.60xwOBA 0.377
Slider—-0.30xwOBA 0.407
away · CLE vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.829
Σ match
2.729
Σ FRV
+14.9
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
CF
Steven Kwan
0.321
0.301
+7.1
2
RF
Chase DeLauter
0.345
0.335
+1.7
3
2B
Travis Bazzana
0.304
0.296
-3.0
4
DH
Jo Adell
0.322
0.304
-8.1
5
1B
Nathaniel Lowe
0.340
0.320
-2.5
6
LF
Angel Martínez
0.304
0.291
+2.7
7
3B
Angel Genao
0.292
0.296
+0.4
8
C
Patrick Bailey
0.309
0.300
+5.5
9
SS
Brayan Rocchio
0.292
0.285
+11.1
home · MIN vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
3.288
Σ match
3.088
Σ FRV
-19.3
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
RF
Luke Keaschall
0.316
0.327
-10.9
2
3B
Brooks Lee
0.276
0.303
-0.2
3
2B
Kody Clemens
0.338
0.354
-2.3
4
C
Ryan Jeffers
0.361
0.389
-4.1
5
DH
Trevor Larnach
0.325
0.343
-2.2
6
1B
Royce Lewis
0.312
0.337
-1.8
7
LF
Emmanuel Rodriguez
0.812
0.447
+0.1
8
CF
Walker Jenkins
0.259
0.284
+0.0
9
SS
Ryan Kreidler
0.289
0.304
+2.2
defense · CLE catcher (Savant FRV)
Patrick Bailey
FRV+5.5
framing+4.3
blocking-1.7
throwing+2.9
defense · MIN catcher (Savant FRV)
Ryan Jeffers
FRV-4.1
framing-0.7
blocking-0.0
throwing-3.4
CLE · Tanner Bibee
Last outing 2026-09-08 vs BAL · 4.1 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
102
102(-0)
99
Location+
100
99(-1)
93
Pitching+
101
102(+1)
92
botStf
51
47(-3)
49
botCmd
55
49(-6)
51
botOvr
54
52(-2)
50
SIERA
4.62
6.84(+2.22)
6.33
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-28 → 2026-09-08. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.36
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-08; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
MIN · Joe Ryan
Last outing 2026-09-07 vs DET · 4.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
106
111(+5)
101
Location+
108
69(-38)
92
Pitching+
110
75(-35)
91
botStf
51
54(+3)
49
botCmd
60
45(-15)
52
botOvr
58
47(-11)
49
SIERA
3.92
2.17(-1.75)
3.92
Last 3 starts: 2026-07-29 → 2026-09-07. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 5.34
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-07; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
CLE · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.40R / inningband [0.31–0.49]
0.094 R/PA · 0.134 R/out · worst: Tim Herrin (4.12)
MIN · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera
0.40R / inningband [0.32–0.47]
0.094 R/PA · 0.133 R/out · worst: Taylor Rogers (4.45)
CLE
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Cade Smith
CLOSER
CL
2.38
35.3
8.2
1.05
36/0/37
stable
Erik Sabrowski
SETUP
SU
2.84
37.0
14.4
0.78
1/24/2
stable
Matt Festa
SETUP
MR
3.40
24.6
7.0
0.97
1/7/13
stable
Hunter Gaddis
SETUP
SU
3.74
22.3
9.4
0.86
1/28/2
stable
Tim Herrin
SETUP
MR
4.24
22.3
11.6
0.79
0/15/5
stable
Daniel Espino
MR
MR
1.85
40.0
8.0
1.00
0/0/1
stable
Craig Yoho
MR
MR
4.49
26.0
9.7
1.33
0/2/5
stable
Connor Brogdon
unknown
MR
6.10
20.9
4.5
—
1/4/0
—
Slade Cecconi
SP
LR
4.66
18.2
7.3
5.21
0/0/0
ramping up
MIN
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Yoendrys Gómez
CLOSER
CL
4.56
21.0
12.9
1.12
22/6/26
ramping down
Jeff Hoffman
SETUP
SU
2.38
35.0
9.5
0.94
5/19/16
stable
Kody Funderburk
SETUP
MR
3.80
21.8
12.8
0.94
1/12/1
stable
Taylor Rogers
SETUP
MR
4.10
19.1
11.2
0.82
2/9/10
stable
Andrew Morris
OPENER
MR
3.22
20.9
8.2
1.31
4/22/6
ramping down
Tommy Nance
MR
MR
3.78
25.6
9.0
1.04
0/6/4
stable
A.J. Minter
MR
SU
3.84
22.5
4.4
1.00
1/8/8
stable
Travis Adams
MR
LR
4.11
26.0
10.6
1.46
2/1/6
stable
glossary
Pitcher metrics
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.
Post-game
actual vs projected
Final total
11
9 CLE · 2 MIN
Projected total
—
Delta
—
actual − projected
Band cover
—
CLE
9 R
14H · 3HR · 4BB · 4K · 18LOB
OBPe 0.422 · SLGe 0.692 · K% 8.9
Their pitching
9.0 IP · 2 ER · 11 K · relief 2.3 IP · 4 arms
MIN
2 R
6H · 1HR · 2BB · 11K · 14LOB
OBPe 0.229 · SLGe 0.333 · K% 31.4
Their pitching
9.0 IP · 9 ER · 4 K · relief 5.0 IP · 4 arms
CLE · standout lines
big nights
Steven Kwan (LF) · 3-4 | HR, 2B, BBHR · 3 H · 7 TB