NYM @ NYY

Sunday · September 13, 2026·full·gamePk 823495past slate · free
refreshed 299h 38m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Yankee Stadium

gametime 1:35 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
74°F
humidity 88%
wind
4 mph
cross RF to LF
precip
16%
mostly clear
park
NYY
open · HP→CF 75°
CFHP1B3BCROSS
wind impact on total
-0.01 R/Gnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metricChristian ScottRHP · NYMCam SchlittlerRHP · NYY
xERA 20263.852.91
xwOBA 20260.3030.265
wOBA−xwOBA 2026-0.002-0.019
xERA 2025—4.10
xwOBA 2025—0.314
Outs/TB 25-262.272.62
FIP 25-263.592.93
kwERA 25-263.282.63
K% 25-2627.8%30.3%
BB% 25-2610.2%7.2%
IP 25+26 combined99.3251.7
ERA actual 20263.812.01
ERA (L4)5.141.01
WHIP (L4)1.240.79
K% (L4)24.2%31.3%
BB% (L4)12.1%8.1%
IP/gm (L4)5.256.67
L4 window08/16→09/06 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified08/21→09/08 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)107 (−0)116 (+3)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)5.09 (+0.66)2.65 (−0.49)
Arsenal RV/1000.261.24

away arsenal — NYM

RV/100 0.26
  • 4-Seam Fastball—-0.10xwOBA 0.324
  • Sweeper—+0.70xwOBA 0.245
  • Cutter—+1.80xwOBA 0.320
  • Curveball—-3.70xwOBA 0.256
  • Split-Finger—+0.40xwOBA 0.364

home arsenal — NYY

RV/100 1.24
  • 4-Seam Fastball—+1.90xwOBA 0.231
  • Cutter—+0.30xwOBA 0.301
  • Sinker—+1.80xwOBA 0.267
  • Curveball—-0.50xwOBA 0.338

away · NYM vs RHP

confirmed
Σ xwOBA
3.031
Σ match
2.676
Σ FRV
+10.2
#posbatterxwOBAmatchFRV
1SSFrancisco Lindor0.3340.302-0.1
2DHJuan Soto0.4170.370-4.4
33BBo Bichette0.3280.283-2.4
4RFCarson Benge0.3350.306+7.3
51BJared Young0.3150.272-0.0
6CFA.J. Ewing0.3230.292+6.8
7CFrancisco Alvarez0.3250.271+1.4
82BBrett Baty0.3130.282+0.3
9LFNick Morabito0.3410.296+1.3

home · NYY vs RHP

confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.971
Σ match
2.962
Σ FRV
+17.4
#posbatterxwOBAmatchFRV
1DHBen Rice0.3750.391-4.7
2LFCody Bellinger0.3390.317+9.9
3RFAaron Judge0.4070.395-1.2
41BLuis García Jr.0.3540.378+1.2
5CFSpencer Jones0.3340.341-2.6
62BAnthony Volpe0.2900.280+5.3
73BRyan McMahon0.3030.306+1.8
8CAustin Wells0.2880.300+6.4
9SSJosé Caballero0.2810.255+1.3

defense · NYM catcher (Savant FRV)

Francisco Alvarez
  • FRV+1.4
  • framing+2.4
  • blocking-1.6
  • throwing+0.6

defense · NYY catcher (Savant FRV)

Austin Wells
  • FRV+6.4
  • framing+6.0
  • blocking+1.9
  • throwing-1.4

NYM · Christian Scott

Last outing 2026-09-06 vs SF · 4.2 IP

MetricPrior gamesLatest (Δ)Last 3
Stuff+107110(+2)107
Location+97109(+12)93
Pitching+102115(+13)100
botStf5854(-4)58
botCmd5356(+3)52
botOvr5758(+0)55
SIERA4.442.31(-2.13)5.09

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-22 → 2026-09-06. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.

Latest botERA 3.44

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-06; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

NYY · Cam Schlittler

Last outing 2026-09-08 vs COL · 7.0 IP

MetricPrior gamesLatest (Δ)Last 3
Stuff+113113(+1)116
Location+10393(-11)93
Pitching+115105(-10)108
botStf5656(-0)57
botCmd5544(-11)49
botOvr5851(-7)54
SIERA3.141.55(-1.59)2.65

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-28 → 2026-09-08. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.

Latest botERA 4.64

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-08; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

NYM · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera
0.39R / inningband [0.32–0.46]
0.092 R/PA · 0.130 R/out · worst: Jonathan Pintaro (4.04)
NYY · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.45R / inningband [0.36–0.55]
0.107 R/PA · 0.152 R/out · worst: Luis Gil (5.29)

NYM

PitcherDerivedCardFIPK%BB%Mean IPSV/HD/GFTrend
Kodai SengaBULKCL5.7925.814.43.397/0/1ramping down
Austin WarrenOPENERMR4.2525.910.91.350/1/9stable
Tobias MyersOPENERMR4.7117.86.11.772/3/5stable
Daniel DuarteMRMR3.3425.96.51.672/6/2insufficient data
Jonathan PintaroMRMR4.8122.611.32.470/2/2ramping up
Nate LavenderunknownSU1.3530.95.5—0/9/0—
Jack WeisenburgerunknownMR2.2820.06.7—0/0/0—
Dedniel NúñezunknownSU4.0524.10.0—0/3/0—

NYY

PitcherDerivedCardFIPK%BB%Mean IPSV/HD/GFTrend
David BednarCLOSERCL2.6227.77.01.1033/0/35stable
Brent HeadrickSETUPSU2.3129.97.91.010/28/6stable
John SchreiberSETUPMR4.7017.610.80.911/14/5stable
Tim HillSETUPMR5.8111.15.80.842/10/6stable
Paul BlackburnOPENERSU3.7921.19.91.531/10/13stable
Ryan YarbroughMRMR3.7117.29.21.593/2/14stable
Michael FulmerunknownMR4.0326.211.9—0/2/0—
Bradley HannerunknownMR10.7826.93.8—0/0/0—
Luis GilSPMR7.4313.212.34.830/0/0ramping up

glossary

Pitcher metrics

  • xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
  • xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
  • wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
  • Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
  • FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
  • kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
  • K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
  • IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
  • Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

  • AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
  • vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
  • xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
  • xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
  • FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
  • Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
  • Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

  • 🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
  • 🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

  • MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
  • Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
  • Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
  • Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected
Final total
2
0 NYM · 2 NYY
Projected total
—
Delta
—
actual − projected
Band cover
—

NYM

0 R

3H · 0HR · 2BB · 10K · 9LOB

OBPe 0.156 · SLGe 0.133 · K% 31.3

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 2 ER · 9 K · relief 2.0 IP · 3 arms

NYY

2 R

3H · 2HR · 4BB · 9K · 7LOB

OBPe 0.241 · SLGe 0.360 · K% 31.0

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 0 ER · 10 K · relief 3.0 IP · 4 arms

NYM · standout lines

tough nights
  • Francisco Lindor (SS) · 0-3 | BB, 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K
  • Juan Soto (DH) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
  • Carson Benge (RF) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K

NYY · standout lines

big nights
  • Ben Rice (DH) · 1-2 | HR, 2 BB, KHR
  • Austin Wells (C) · 1-3 | HR, 2 K, RBIHR
tough nights
  • Cody Bellinger (LF) · 0-40-for-4
  • Aaron Judge (RF) · 0-3 | 3 K0-for-3 · 3 K
sources · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant · Baseball Prospectus · Open-Meteo · reference, not picks