SD @ SF

Sunday · September 13, 2026·full·gamePk 823171past slate · free
refreshed 294h 17m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Oracle Park

gametime 7:20 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
70°F
humidity 54%
wind
16 mph
out to RF
precip
0%
clear
park
SF
open · HP→CF 91°
CFHP1B3BOUT
wind impact on total
+0.49 R/Gmoderate out

Moderate wind out: +0.49 R/G vs neutral. _Oracle Park — the famous wind park. McCovey Cove wind blows IN HARD from west most days, suppresses HR violently. Calm summer warm games (rare) let ball fly to LF_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metricNick PivettaRHP · SDLogan WebbRHP · SF
xERA 20262.424.08
xwOBA 20260.2420.311
wOBA−xwOBA 2026-0.019-0.024
xERA 20253.963.58
xwOBA 20250.3090.295
Outs/TB 25-262.582.14
FIP 25-263.282.96
kwERA 25-263.013.28
K% 25-2626.9%23.4%
BB% 25-267.0%5.7%
IP 25+26 combined202.7362.7
ERA actual 20263.434.10
ERA (L4)0.009.18
WHIP (L4)0.401.86
K% (L4)11.8%20.2%
BB% (L4)0.0%9.5%
IP/gm (L4)5.004.17
L4 window09/07→09/07 (1 st) · 1/1 dates verified08/21→09/07 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)89 (−14)104 (+5)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)4.90 (+1.90)3.76 (−0.26)
Arsenal RV/1001.860.83

away arsenal — SD

RV/100 1.86
  • 4-Seam Fastball—+2.00xwOBA 0.293
  • Curveball—+0.20xwOBA 0.197
  • Cutter—+2.20xwOBA 0.291
  • Sweeper—+3.90xwOBA 0.091

home arsenal — SF

RV/100 0.83
  • Sinker—+1.60xwOBA 0.363
  • Changeup—-0.20xwOBA 0.290
  • Sweeper—+1.10xwOBA 0.296
  • 4-Seam Fastball—+1.50xwOBA 0.251
  • Cutter—-0.10xwOBA 0.301

away · SD vs RHP

confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.740
Σ match
2.817
Σ FRV
+18.6
#posbatterxwOBAmatchFRV
12BFernando Tatis Jr.0.3760.356+5.1
2RFDustin Harris0.3240.317+0.5
33BManny Machado0.3350.326+5.7
4DHLuis Campusano0.3430.344-3.0
5CFJackson Merrill0.3460.351+9.1
6SSXander Bogaerts0.3200.317+4.6
71BJake Cronenworth0.2690.251-2.3
8LFSamad Taylor0.3020.307-0.8
9CEthan Salas0.1250.249-0.4

home · SF vs RHP

confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.363
Σ match
2.364
Σ FRV
-0.3
#posbatterxwOBAmatchFRV
1LFDrew Gilbert0.3280.278+3.6
2RFJung Hoo Lee0.3170.258-6.0
31BBryce Eldridge0.3540.318+1.7
4CFJonah Cox0.2670.233+1.6
5DHScott Bandura—0.285—
62BShay Whitcomb0.2690.254+0.3
7CAndrew Knizner0.2610.245-4.0
83BBrett Harris0.3110.281+0.2
9SSChristian Koss0.2560.213+2.4

defense · SD catcher (Savant FRV)

Ethan Salas
  • FRV-0.4
  • framing-0.5
  • blocking+0.1
  • throwing—

defense · SF catcher (Savant FRV)

Andrew Knizner
  • FRV-4.0
  • framing-2.0
  • blocking-0.9
  • throwing-1.2

SD · Nick Pivetta

Last outing 2026-09-07 vs WSH · 5.0 IP

MetricPrior gamesLatest (Δ)Last 1
Stuff+10289(-14)89
Location+102111(+9)111
Pitching+105105(-0)105
botStf5248(-4)48
botCmd5052(+2)52
botOvr5451(-3)51
SIERA3.004.90(+1.90)4.90

Last 1 starts: 2026-09-07 → 2026-09-07. 1/1 outings have verified ratings.

Latest botERA 4.58

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-07; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

SF · Logan Webb

Last outing 2026-09-07 vs STL · 6.0 IP

MetricPrior gamesLatest (Δ)Last 3
Stuff+99105(+6)104
Location+104104(+0)96
Pitching+104106(+2)99
botStf5353(-0)53
botCmd5854(-3)53
botOvr5658(+2)53
SIERA4.022.70(-1.33)3.76

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-26 → 2026-09-07. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.

Latest botERA 3.32

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-07; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

SD · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera
0.40R / inningband [0.33–0.47]
0.094 R/PA · 0.133 R/out · worst: Wandy Peralta (4.45)
SF · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera
0.48R / inningband [0.38–0.58]
0.112 R/PA · 0.159 R/out · worst: Philip Abner (5.72)

SD

PitcherDerivedCardFIPK%BB%Mean IPSV/HD/GFTrend
Mason MillerCLOSERCL1.0048.39.51.0436/0/34stable
Adrian MorejonSETUPSU2.3430.57.31.163/25/6stable
Kyle HartSETUPMR3.3722.97.61.400/8/5stable
Bradgley RodriguezOPENERSU2.6627.16.61.092/14/5stable
Wandy PeraltaOPENERMR3.9715.87.91.170/4/14stable
David MorganMRMR4.2323.413.31.220/2/5stable
Yuki MatsuiMRMR4.2926.413.61.350/9/5ramping down
Griffin CanningSPMR4.7422.810.44.240/1/0ramping down

SF

PitcherDerivedCardFIPK%BB%Mean IPSV/HD/GFTrend
Joel KuhnelSETUPCL5.6313.18.01.017/6/16stable
Dylan SmithMRMR3.5027.011.20.884/7/5stable
Jason FoleyMRMR3.8812.99.71.000/2/0insufficient data
Reiver SanmartinMRMR4.2918.06.71.670/4/1insufficient data
Philip AbnerMRMR5.359.512.21.870/0/1stable
Carson SeymourMRMR5.9816.412.12.171/7/0insufficient data
Trent HarrisunknownMR1.7831.310.4—1/4/0—
Matt WilkinsonunknownMR5.7414.15.6—0/0/0—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

  • xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
  • xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
  • wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
  • Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
  • FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
  • kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
  • K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
  • IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
  • Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

  • AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
  • vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
  • xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
  • xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
  • FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
  • Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
  • Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

  • 🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
  • 🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

  • MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
  • Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
  • Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
  • Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected
Final total
10
6 SD · 4 SF
Projected total
—
Delta
—
actual − projected
Band cover
—

SD

6 R

9H · 1HR · 1BB · 10K · 13LOB

OBPe 0.278 · SLGe 0.429 · K% 27.8

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 4 ER · 9 K · relief 5.0 IP · 6 arms

SF

4 R

9H · 1HR · 4BB · 9K · 22LOB

OBPe 0.325 · SLGe 0.333 · K% 22.5

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 6 ER · 10 K · relief 4.0 IP · 3 arms

SD · standout lines

big nights
  • Fernando Tatis Jr. (RF) · 3-4 | K, 2 RBI, 2 R3 H
  • Manny Machado (3B) · 1-3 | HR, BB, KHR
tough nights
  • Luis Campusano (DH) · 0-40-for-4
  • Xander Bogaerts (SS) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K

SF · standout lines

big nights
  • Andrew Knizner (C) · 1-2 | HR, 2 RBI, RHR
tough nights
  • Jung Hoo Lee (RF) · 0-50-for-5
sources · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant · Baseball Prospectus · Open-Meteo · reference, not picks