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today's slate

CWS @ STL

Sunday · September 13, 2026·full·gamePk 823008past slate · free

refreshed 299h 0m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Busch Stadium

gametime 2:15 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

83°F

humidity 61%

wind

6 mph

in from RF

precip

partly cloudy

park

STL

open · HP→CF 4°

wind impact on total

-0.08 R/Gnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	David SandlinRHP · CWS	Michael McGreevyRHP · STL
xERA 2026	4.28	5.38
xwOBA 2026	0.318	0.352
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.028	-0.034
xERA 2025	—	4.64
xwOBA 2025	—	0.332
Outs/TB 25-26	1.72	1.84
FIP 25-26	5.89	4.25
kwERA 25-26	4.04	4.22
K% 25-26	22.6%	15.9%
BB% 25-26	11.3%	6.0%
IP 25+26 combined	24.7	249.7
ERA actual 2026	6.93	3.92
ERA (L4)	5.56	6.55
WHIP (L4)	1.32	1.45
K% (L4)	20.8%	15.5%
BB% (L4)	10.4%	8.2%
IP/gm (L4)	5.67	5.50
L4 window	06/26→08/07 (2 outs) · 1/2 dates verified	08/20→09/07 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	—	83 (+2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	—	5.09 (+0.55)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.32	0.08

away arsenal — CWS

RV/100 -0.32

4-Seam Fastball—-1.60xwOBA 0.378
Curveball—+0.90xwOBA 0.227
Cutter—+0.60xwOBA 0.458

home arsenal — STL

RV/100 0.08

4-Seam Fastball—-0.80xwOBA 0.389
Changeup—+0.70xwOBA 0.317
Sinker—+2.30xwOBA 0.309
Curveball—+0.30xwOBA 0.271
Cutter—+0.00xwOBA 0.399
Sweeper—-2.00xwOBA 0.422
Slider—-1.70xwOBA 0.437

away · CWS vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.842

Σ match

3.222

Σ FRV

+10.2

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Sam Antonacci	0.341	0.381	-8.8
2	C	Kyle Teel	0.313	0.338	-1.2
3	3B	Miguel Vargas	0.380	0.434	-3.8
4	1B	Munetaka Murakami	0.343	0.399	-2.5
5	DH	Andrew Benintendi	0.311	0.362	-1.6
6	RF	Tristan Peters	0.317	0.363	+9.4
7	2B	Chase Meidroth	0.297	0.328	+11.1
8	SS	Colson Montgomery	0.304	0.345	+9.6
9	CF	Brenton Doyle	0.236	0.272	-2.0

home · STL vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.920

Σ match

3.231

Σ FRV

+12.5

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Bryan Torres	0.299	0.345	+1.8
2	C	Iván Herrera	0.332	0.346	-4.5
3	1B	Alec Burleson	0.376	0.428	+4.7
4	RF	Jordan Walker	0.344	0.399	-8.2
5	DH	Leo Bernal	0.385	0.397	+0.4
6	3B	Nolan Gorman	0.280	0.340	+1.1
7	2B	Thomas Saggese	0.317	0.333	+0.0
8	CF	Nathan Church	0.289	0.325	+1.4
9	SS	Masyn Winn	0.298	0.319	+15.8

defense · CWS catcher (Savant FRV)

Kyle Teel

FRV-1.2
framing-1.3
blocking-0.9
throwing+0.9

defense · STL catcher (Savant FRV)

Iván Herrera

FRV-4.5
framing-0.9
blocking+0.4
throwing-3.9

CWS · David Sandlin

Last outing 2026-08-07 vs Cleveland Guardians · 5.1 IP

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 2
Stuff+	101	93(-7)	—
Location+	95	93(-2)	—
Pitching+	96	91(-4)	—
botStf	51	51(+0)	—
botCmd	50	44(-6)	—
botOvr	51	44(-6)	—
SIERA	4.52	4.28(-0.24)	—

Last 2 outings: 2026-06-26 → 2026-08-07. 1/2 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-08-07: Stuff+ 93 · Location+ 93 · Pitching+ 91 · botStf 51 · botCmd 44 · botOvr 44 · SIERA 4.28

Latest botERA 5.75

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-07; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

STL · Michael McGreevy

Last outing 2026-09-07 vs SF · 6.2 IP

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	81	84(+3)	83
Location+	110	101(-9)	97
Pitching+	95	86(-9)	84
botStf	47	46(-0)	47
botCmd	56	52(-4)	50
botOvr	51	49(-3)	48
SIERA	4.55	4.93(+0.38)	5.09

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-26 → 2026-09-07. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.

Latest botERA 4.98

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-07; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

CWS · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)5 arms · kwera

0.41R / inningband [0.34–0.47]

0.095 R/PA · 0.135 R/out · worst: Chris Murphy (4.06)

STL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.46R / inningband [0.38–0.53]

0.107 R/PA · 0.152 R/out · worst: Gordon Graceffo (4.55)

CWS

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Sean Newcomb	SETUP	MR	2.87	22.6	8.7	1.51	4/11/6	ramping up
Grant Taylor	OPENER	CL	2.77	32.5	8.8	1.33	8/10/11	stable
Bryan Hudson	OPENER	CL	3.08	22.5	6.6	0.98	8/9/8	stable
Chris Murphy	OPENER	MR	3.85	22.4	11.2	1.05	1/1/6	stable
Jordan Hicks	MR	MR	3.80	28.5	15.0	0.91	1/8/6	stable
Trevor Richards	MR	MR	4.04	22.3	7.7	1.46	1/1/16	stable
Hagen Smith	unknown	SU	2.35	38.2	13.2	—	0/1/0	—

STL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Riley O'Brien	CLOSER	CL	3.81	23.2	10.4	0.99	36/1/33	stable
Justin Bruihl	SETUP	MR	3.95	16.0	8.3	1.11	0/10/5	ramping up
Ryne Stanek	SETUP	SU	4.55	24.6	11.5	0.89	2/25/5	stable
George Soriano	SETUP	MR	4.83	22.7	11.6	0.98	3/21/7	stable
Brycen Mautz	BULK	MR	6.54	22.9	14.6	3.00	0/0/1	insufficient data
Gordon Graceffo	MR	SU	3.98	18.3	11.2	1.18	1/6/10	stable
Luis Gastelum	MR	MR	4.28	29.0	8.4	1.00	0/1/1	stable
Cade Winquest	unknown	MR	3.10	20.7	10.3	—	0/1/0	—
Cooper Hjerpe	unknown	LR	3.10	39.1	17.4	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

1 CWS · 3 STL

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

CWS

1 R

4H · 0HR · 5BB · 9K · 16LOB

OBPe 0.257 · SLGe 0.241 · K% 25.7

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 0 ER · 9 K · relief 2.3 IP · 3 arms

STL

3 R

4H · 0HR · 0BB · 9K · 8LOB

OBPe 0.138 · SLGe 0.207 · K% 31.0

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 1 ER · 9 K · relief 3.0 IP · 3 arms

CWS · standout lines

tough nights

Munetaka Murakami (1B) · 0-3 | BB, 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K

STL · standout lines

tough nights

Bryan Torres (LF) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K
Iván Herrera (C) · 0-4 | K, R0-for-4
Jordan Walker (RF) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K