Sunday · September 13, 2026·full·gamePk 822928past slate · free
refreshed 298h 42m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · George M. Steinbrenner Field
gametime 1:40 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
81°F
humidity 80%
wind
5 mph
in from RF
precip
29%
light drizzle
park
TB
open · HP→CF 45°
wind impact on total
-0.13 R/Gminor in
Minor wind in: -0.13 R/G vs neutral. _Steinbrenner Field is fully open spring training park — first wind-sensitive home for the Rays since Tropicana_
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Hayden WesneskiRHP · HOU
Freddy PeraltaRHP · TB
xERA 2026
3.69
3.93
xwOBA 2026
0.297
0.306
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.030
0.026
xERA 2025
4.30
3.43
xwOBA 2025
0.321
0.289
Outs/TB 25-26
2.23
2.17
FIP 25-26
4.00
4.01
kwERA 25-26
3.67
3.45
K% 25-26
20.9%
25.0%
BB% 25-26
6.5%
8.7%
IP 25+26 combined
77.7
329.7
ERA actual 2026
3.35
4.82
ERA (L4)
1.57
2.52
WHIP (L4)
0.74
0.76
K% (L4)
21.2%
20.2%
BB% (L4)
8.2%
2.1%
IP/gm (L4)
5.75
6.25
L4 window
08/21→09/08 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/21→09/08 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
96 (+1)
99 (+3)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
3.93 (−0.43)
4.05 (−0.41)
Arsenal RV/100
1.09
-0.19
away arsenal — HOU
RV/100 1.09
Sweeper—+1.90xwOBA 0.241
4-Seam Fastball—+1.00xwOBA 0.345
Sinker—+0.50xwOBA 0.297
Cutter—+0.00xwOBA 0.342
Changeup—+1.50xwOBA 0.227
home arsenal — TB
RV/100 -0.19
4-Seam Fastball—-0.30xwOBA 0.342
Changeup—+0.20xwOBA 0.270
Curveball—-0.10xwOBA 0.241
Sweeper—-0.60xwOBA 0.238
Slider—-0.60xwOBA 0.450
away · HOU vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.863
Σ match
2.841
Σ FRV
-8.0
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
SS
Jeremy Peña
0.321
0.330
-2.9
2
DH
Yordan Alvarez
0.443
0.454
-2.7
3
3B
Isaac Paredes
0.321
0.308
+0.8
4
2B
Jose Altuve
0.275
0.273
-9.7
5
C
Yainer Diaz
0.301
0.292
-4.3
6
CF
Daulton Varsho
0.288
0.292
+4.2
7
1B
Christian Walker
0.302
0.283
+5.9
8
RF
Cam Smith
0.322
0.307
+2.3
9
LF
Taylor Trammell
0.290
0.303
-1.6
home · TB vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.796
Σ match
2.603
Σ FRV
+8.7
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
DH
Yandy Díaz
0.351
0.317
—
2
1B
Jonathan Aranda
0.347
0.336
-1.2
3
3B
Junior Caminero
0.363
0.340
-8.6
4
RF
Victor Mesa Jr.
0.332
0.298
+9.2
5
LF
Chandler Simpson
0.264
0.237
+2.7
6
CF
Jonny DeLuca
0.267
0.254
+10.1
7
2B
Richie Palacios
0.310
0.290
-4.2
8
SS
Nick Madrigal
0.287
0.284
+1.4
9
C
Nick Fortes
0.275
0.246
-0.8
defense · HOU catcher (Savant FRV)
Yainer Diaz
FRV-4.3
framing-4.1
blocking-0.2
throwing-0.1
defense · TB catcher (Savant FRV)
Nick Fortes
FRV-0.8
framing-1.2
blocking+0.1
throwing+0.3
HOU · Hayden Wesneski
Last outing 2026-09-08 vs PHI · 6.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
95
95(+1)
96
Location+
99
112(+14)
98
Pitching+
95
101(+5)
91
botStf
52
48(-4)
51
botCmd
52
63(+11)
54
botOvr
52
58(+6)
52
SIERA
4.36
4.47(+0.12)
3.93
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-27 → 2026-09-08. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.36
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-08; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
TB · Freddy Peralta
Last outing 2026-09-08 vs ATL · 6.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
96
97(+1)
99
Location+
105
114(+8)
122
Pitching+
102
109(+6)
119
botStf
55
54(-1)
57
botCmd
51
53(+2)
56
botOvr
52
56(+4)
59
SIERA
4.46
5.50(+1.04)
4.05
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-26 → 2026-09-08. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.73
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-08; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
0.092 R/PA · 0.131 R/out · worst: Ty Johnson (4.31)
HOU
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Josh Hader
CLOSER
CL
1.60
35.8
7.3
0.91
25/0/14
stable
Bryan Abreu
CLOSER
SU
4.59
30.3
15.9
0.92
8/14/21
stable
Enyel De Los Santos
SETUP
MR
3.65
22.2
6.5
1.07
5/10/13
stable
AJ Blubaugh
SETUP
SU
4.20
24.0
10.1
1.68
1/10/6
ramping up
Bryan King
SETUP
MR
4.79
17.4
7.9
1.07
6/12/11
stable
Miguel Ullola
MR
MR
4.22
33.3
3.3
2.00
0/0/1
insufficient data
Bennett Sousa
MOP_UP
MR
4.50
22.6
13.9
0.67
0/9/2
stable
Tatsuya Imai
SP
LR
4.43
28.0
15.4
3.86
0/0/0
ramping down
TB
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Bryan Baker
CLOSER
CL
3.05
27.1
9.2
0.96
40/2/28
stable
Kevin Kelly
SETUP
SU
3.27
21.0
4.3
1.10
4/30/9
stable
Tyler Wells
SETUP
SU
3.37
26.0
6.5
1.26
6/15/13
stable
Casey Legumina
OPENER
MR
3.54
17.7
6.1
1.25
0/7/7
stable
Cole Sulser
OPENER
MR
3.87
23.4
7.2
1.11
2/11/9
stable
Steven Matz
SWING
LR
5.15
17.1
7.6
3.53
1/1/1
ramping down
Cam Booser
MR
MR
3.18
29.6
4.4
1.11
0/10/5
stable
Ty Johnson
unknown
MR
3.53
36.4
27.3
—
0/1/0
—
glossary
Pitcher metrics
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.
Post-game
actual vs projected
Final total
18
4 HOU · 14 TB
Projected total
—
Delta
—
actual − projected
Band cover
—
HOU
4 R
4H · 3HR · 6BB · 7K · 13LOB
OBPe 0.270 · SLGe 0.452 · K% 18.9
Their pitching
8.0 IP · 10 ER · 5 K · relief 5.0 IP · 3 arms
TB
14 R
15H · 4HR · 2BB · 5K · 11LOB
OBPe 0.405 · SLGe 0.775 · K% 11.9
Their pitching
9.0 IP · 4 ER · 7 K · relief 4.0 IP · 5 arms
HOU · standout lines
big nights
Nick Allen (SS) · 1-2 | HR, BB, RBIHR
Nelson Velázquez (DH) · 1-2 | HR, RBI, RHR
Isaac Paredes (3B) · 1-3 | HR, BB, 2 RBIHR
tough nights
Jose Altuve (2B) · 0-40-for-4
Yainer Diaz (C) · 0-3 | BB, 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K
Cam Smith (RF) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
TB · standout lines
big nights
Jonathan Aranda (1B) · 2-4 | 2 HR, BB, 2 K2-HR night · 8 TB