Sunday · September 13, 2026·full·gamePk 822764past slate · free
refreshed 299h 40m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Rogers Centre
gametime 1:37 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
82°F
humidity 55%
wind
10 mph
out to RF
precip
0%
clear
park
TOR
retractable · HP→CF 0°
wind impact on total
neutralnone cross
Cross wind, but too light to move the total.
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Trevor RogersLHP · BAL
Dylan CeaseRHP · TOR
xERA 2026
3.61
2.78
xwOBA 2026
0.294
0.259
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
0.011
-0.012
xERA 2025
3.41
3.46
xwOBA 2025
0.288
0.290
Outs/TB 25-26
2.48
2.56
FIP 25-26
3.17
3.02
kwERA 25-26
3.40
2.72
K% 25-26
23.0%
32.5%
BB% 25-26
6.3%
10.1%
IP 25+26 combined
261.3
329.3
ERA actual 2026
4.15
2.40
ERA (L4)
4.15
2.28
WHIP (L4)
1.04
0.93
K% (L4)
30.0%
28.6%
BB% (L4)
2.0%
8.8%
IP/gm (L4)
6.50
5.92
L4 window
08/21→09/07 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/22→09/07 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
100 (−2)
97 (−9)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
2.63 (−1.64)
3.28 (+0.17)
Arsenal RV/100
0.29
1.41
away arsenal — BAL
RV/100 0.29
4-Seam Fastball—+0.90xwOBA 0.306
Changeup—-1.70xwOBA 0.340
Sweeper—+1.20xwOBA 0.212
Sinker—+0.30xwOBA 0.271
Cutter—+0.30xwOBA 0.316
home arsenal — TOR
RV/100 1.41
4-Seam Fastball—+1.00xwOBA 0.302
Slider—+3.00xwOBA 0.208
Changeup—+1.50xwOBA 0.167
Curveball—-0.80xwOBA 0.348
Sinker—+1.00xwOBA 0.320
Sweeper—-1.10xwOBA 0.237
away · BAL vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.893
Σ match
2.445
Σ FRV
-9.8
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
LF
Dylan Beavers
0.299
0.258
-7.3
2
1B
Pete Alonso
0.395
0.340
-3.1
3
SS
Gunnar Henderson
0.316
0.253
+1.0
4
DH
Coby Mayo
0.328
0.281
-2.0
5
C
Samuel Basallo
0.323
0.271
-2.2
6
3B
Christian Encarnacion-Strand
0.347
0.282
+2.1
7
2B
Jackson Holliday
0.296
0.242
-2.9
8
RF
Leody Taveras
0.271
0.240
-2.7
9
CF
Colton Cowser
0.318
0.278
+7.3
home · TOR vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.685
Σ match
2.585
Σ FRV
+34.2
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
RF
Brett Bateman
0.310
0.297
+3.3
2
DH
George Springer
0.305
0.301
-0.3
3
1B
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
0.332
0.321
+5.4
4
3B
Kazuma Okamoto
0.327
0.324
-2.5
5
LF
Charles McAdoo
0.267
0.263
+0.6
6
2B
Ernie Clement
0.262
0.243
-3.2
7
SS
Andrés Giménez
0.276
0.260
+15.0
8
C
Brandon Valenzuela
0.309
0.293
+11.4
9
CF
Myles Straw
0.297
0.285
+4.5
defense · BAL catcher (Savant FRV)
Samuel Basallo
FRV-2.2
framing-4.8
blocking+1.0
throwing+2.1
defense · TOR catcher (Savant FRV)
Brandon Valenzuela
FRV+11.4
framing+7.7
blocking-0.8
throwing+4.7
BAL · Trevor Rogers
Last outing 2026-09-07 vs CLE · 7.1 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
101
107(+6)
100
Location+
106
123(+18)
116
Pitching+
104
122(+18)
108
botStf
53
53(-0)
51
botCmd
59
63(+4)
62
botOvr
58
63(+4)
60
SIERA
4.27
3.43(-0.83)
2.63
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-27 → 2026-09-07. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 2.57
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-07; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
TOR · Dylan Cease
Last outing 2026-09-07 vs ATH · 5.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
106
96(-10)
97
Location+
99
98(-1)
107
Pitching+
105
95(-10)
105
botStf
56
52(-4)
53
botCmd
52
60(+8)
59
botOvr
54
56(+2)
57
SIERA
3.11
3.71(+0.60)
3.28
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-28 → 2026-09-07. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.68
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-07; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
BAL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera
0.39R / inningband [0.35–0.43]
0.091 R/PA · 0.130 R/out · worst: Luis De León (4.26)
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.
Post-game
actual vs projected
Final total
9
1 BAL · 8 TOR
Projected total
—
Delta
—
actual − projected
Band cover
—
BAL
1 R
9H · 0HR · 6BB · 15K · 30LOB
OBPe 0.366 · SLGe 0.286 · K% 36.6
Their pitching
8.0 IP · 8 ER · 6 K · relief 2.0 IP · 3 arms
TOR
8 R
10H · 3HR · 5BB · 6K · 12LOB
OBPe 0.385 · SLGe 0.647 · K% 15.4
Their pitching
9.0 IP · 1 ER · 15 K · relief 4.0 IP · 6 arms
BAL · standout lines
big nights
Pete Alonso (1B) · 3-5 | K, RBI3 H
tough nights
Jackson Holliday (2B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
TOR · standout lines
big nights
George Springer (DH) · 2-5 | HR, 2B, KHR · 4 RBI
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B) · 4-5 | HR, 2B, KHR · 4 H · 8 TB