Sunday · September 13, 2026·full·gamePk 822682past slate · free
refreshed 299h 41m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Nationals Park
gametime 1:35 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
83°F
humidity 76%
wind
3 mph
cross RF to LF
precip
7%
overcast
park
WSH
open · HP→CF 30°
wind impact on total
+0.01 R/Gnone cross
Cross wind, but too light to move the total.
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Grayson RodriguezRHP · LAA
Jake IrvinRHP · WSH
xERA 2026
5.67
5.35
xwOBA 2026
0.360
0.351
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
0.008
-0.012
xERA 2025
—
5.59
xwOBA 2025
—
0.360
Outs/TB 25-26
1.54
1.63
FIP 25-26
5.07
5.40
kwERA 25-26
4.17
4.30
K% 25-26
20.3%
17.9%
BB% 25-26
10.0%
8.7%
IP 25+26 combined
81.7
271.3
ERA actual 2026
6.28
5.52
ERA (L4)
3.97
4.50
WHIP (L4)
1.50
1.65
K% (L4)
20.2%
19.4%
BB% (L4)
9.1%
11.8%
IP/gm (L4)
5.67
5.00
L4 window
08/20→09/07 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/22→09/07 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
102 (−1)
99 (+1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
4.92 (+0.18)
5.09 (+0.55)
Arsenal RV/100
-1.26
-0.50
away arsenal — LAA
RV/100 -1.26
4-Seam Fastball—-1.30xwOBA 0.386
Changeup—-0.10xwOBA 0.276
Curveball—-1.70xwOBA 0.408
Slider—-3.40xwOBA 0.377
home arsenal — WSH
RV/100 -0.50
4-Seam Fastball—-1.00xwOBA 0.394
Curveball—+1.70xwOBA 0.234
Sinker—-1.70xwOBA 0.466
Cutter—-0.10xwOBA 0.384
Sweeper—-2.90xwOBA 0.325
Changeup—-0.20xwOBA 0.225
away · LAA vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.714
Σ match
3.103
Σ FRV
-3.1
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
SS
Zach Neto
0.308
0.366
-1.2
2
DH
Mike Trout
0.376
0.429
-2.7
3
LF
Wade Meckler
0.313
0.351
+1.2
4
1B
Vaughn Grissom
0.308
0.358
-5.3
5
C
Moisés Ballesteros
0.288
0.315
-1.6
6
3B
Denzer Guzman
0.271
0.301
+1.2
7
RF
Josh Lowe
0.291
0.328
+5.3
8
CF
Jose Siri
0.309
0.359
+1.9
9
2B
Christian Moore
0.250
0.294
-1.9
home · WSH vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.915
Σ match
3.429
Σ FRV
-13.7
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
RF
James Wood
0.413
0.491
-8.5
2
DH
Abimelec Ortiz
0.291
0.369
-0.4
3
3B
Andrés Chaparro
0.339
0.442
-3.7
4
SS
CJ Abrams
0.329
0.394
-12.3
5
1B
Yohandy Morales
0.320
0.335
+0.0
6
LF
Daylen Lile
0.324
0.364
+2.8
7
C
Keibert Ruiz
0.288
0.328
+1.1
8
2B
José Tena
0.297
0.320
-1.5
9
CF
Jacob Young
0.314
0.387
+8.6
defense · LAA catcher (Savant FRV)
Moisés Ballesteros
FRV-1.6
framing-1.5
blocking-0.3
throwing+0.1
defense · WSH catcher (Savant FRV)
Keibert Ruiz
FRV+1.1
framing+2.9
blocking+0.1
throwing-1.9
LAA · Grayson Rodriguez
Last outing 2026-09-07 vs BOS · 4.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
104
100(-4)
102
Location+
99
83(-16)
98
Pitching+
100
82(-18)
98
botStf
53
54(+1)
53
botCmd
54
48(-7)
54
botOvr
57
52(-5)
57
SIERA
4.74
6.74(+2.00)
4.92
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-26 → 2026-09-07. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.40
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-07; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
WSH · Jake Irvin
Last outing 2026-09-07 vs SD · 5.2 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
98
106(+8)
99
Location+
99
96(-3)
98
Pitching+
95
100(+5)
96
botStf
49
45(-4)
46
botCmd
55
57(+2)
57
botOvr
53
55(+2)
53
SIERA
4.54
5.45(+0.91)
5.09
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-27 → 2026-09-07. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.94
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-07; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
LAA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.38R / inningband [0.31–0.46]
0.090 R/PA · 0.128 R/out · worst: Luke Murphy (4.24)
WSH · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)9 arms · kwera
0.45R / inningband [0.39–0.52]
0.106 R/PA · 0.151 R/out · worst: Richard Lovelady (4.91)
LAA
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Samy Natera Jr.
MR
SU
1.90
36.6
9.9
1.16
3/5/3
stable
Tayler Saucedo
MR
MR
2.38
29.9
6.0
0.56
0/7/0
stable
José Fermin
MR
MR
3.92
26.9
10.8
1.11
1/7/7
stable
Ryan Watson
MR
SU
4.03
20.0
7.6
1.61
2/7/21
stable
Mitch Farris
MR
LR
4.83
24.7
11.4
2.12
1/1/6
stable
Ben Joyce
unknown
CL
2.61
30.6
14.3
—
4/2/0
—
Blake Weiman
unknown
MR
2.65
19.0
1.7
—
0/2/0
—
Luke Murphy
unknown
MR
3.96
24.2
14.5
—
0/4/0
—
Sammy Peralta
unknown
MR
5.51
28.3
8.3
—
0/1/0
—
WSH
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Brad Lord
SETUP
MR
4.41
21.1
9.2
2.15
1/6/4
stable
Richard Lovelady
OPENER
MR
5.40
18.5
14.4
0.92
4/9/11
ramping down
Will Dion
MR
SU
4.10
28.0
7.9
1.79
0/0/6
ramping down
Riley Cornelio
MR
LR
4.46
23.3
18.1
2.04
0/0/2
ramping down
Yovanny Cruz
MR
MR
4.55
23.4
14.9
1.44
0/2/1
insufficient data
Erik Tolman
unknown
MR
2.45
23.7
10.5
—
2/1/0
—
Jared Simpson
unknown
MR
3.35
28.6
21.4
—
0/0/0
—
Jack Sinclair
unknown
MR
4.71
22.2
16.7
—
0/0/0
—
Luis Perales
unknown
SU
8.67
24.3
16.2
—
0/0/0
—
glossary
Pitcher metrics
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.