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today's slate

TEX @ AZ

Saturday · September 12, 2026·full·gamePk 825035free Saturday

refreshed 318h 11m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Chase Field

gametime 8:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

102°F

humidity 30%

wind

3 mph

cross RF to LF

precip

mostly clear

park

retractable · HP→CF 23°

wind impact on total

neutralnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Kumar RockerRHP · TEX	Brandon PfaadtRHP · AZ
xERA 2026	4.61	3.77
xwOBA 2026	0.329	0.300
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.009	-0.006
xERA 2025	5.73	5.27
xwOBA 2025	0.364	0.351
Outs/TB 25-26	1.69	1.79
FIP 25-26	4.59	4.16
kwERA 25-26	3.97	3.89
K% 25-26	20.8%	17.9%
BB% 25-26	8.9%	5.3%
IP 25+26 combined	199.0	294.0
ERA actual 2026	4.61	3.53
ERA (L4)	4.34	5.11
WHIP (L4)	1.71	1.22
K% (L4)	23.6%	15.5%
BB% (L4)	14.6%	4.9%
IP/gm (L4)	4.67	6.17
L4 window	08/14→08/30 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified	08/19→09/05 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	86 (−5)	—
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.30 (−0.07)	—
Arsenal RV/100	-0.27	0.75

away arsenal — TEX

RV/100 -0.27

Slider—+0.40xwOBA 0.227
Sinker—-1.10xwOBA 0.384
Cutter—-0.90xwOBA 0.425
4-Seam Fastball—+0.10xwOBA 0.334
Changeup—+0.60xwOBA 0.491

home arsenal — AZ

RV/100 0.75

4-Seam Fastball—+1.20xwOBA 0.301
Sinker—-0.20xwOBA 0.346
Changeup—-0.30xwOBA 0.329
Curveball—+0.20xwOBA 0.305
Sweeper—+1.30xwOBA 0.206
Cutter—+2.60xwOBA 0.294

away · TEX vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.856

Σ match

2.739

Σ FRV

+9.8

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Joc Pederson	0.344	0.333	-2.3
2	SS	Corey Seager	0.350	0.332	-1.3
3	3B	Josh Jung	0.347	0.332	-4.0
4	RF	Brandon Nimmo	0.349	0.329	-5.1
5	CF	Ezequiel Duran	0.305	0.296	+14.0
6	LF	Wyatt Langford	0.314	0.298	+2.7
7	1B	Jake Burger	0.319	0.316	+4.3
8	2B	Nicky Lopez	0.257	0.247	+0.9
9	C	Elias Díaz	0.271	0.255	+0.4

home · AZ vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.883

Σ match

3.108

Σ FRV

+35.4

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Lars Nootbaar	0.347	0.356	+1.6
2	2B	Ketel Marte	0.348	0.385	+3.9
3	C	Gabriel Moreno	0.361	0.381	+7.3
4	SS	Geraldo Perdomo	0.326	0.339	+11.1
5	RF	Corbin Carroll	0.344	0.369	+4.3
6	3B	Nolan Arenado	0.292	0.322	+3.1
7	1B	Tim Tawa	0.306	0.342	-1.2
8	DH	Pavin Smith	0.255	0.274	+1.3
9	CF	Ryan Waldschmidt	0.304	0.341	+4.0

defense · TEX catcher (Savant FRV)

Elias Díaz

FRV+0.4
framing-0.5
blocking+0.2
throwing+0.7

defense · AZ catcher (Savant FRV)

Gabriel Moreno

FRV+7.3
framing+4.2
blocking+1.3
throwing+1.8

TEX · Kumar Rocker

Last outing 2026-09-04 vs TB · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	86
Location+	—	—	89
Pitching+	—	—	77
botStf	—	—	48
botCmd	—	—	47
botOvr	—	—	46
SIERA	—	—	4.30

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-19 → 2026-08-30. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-04; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

AZ · Brandon Pfaadt

Last outing 2026-09-05 vs HOU · 6.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-25 → 2026-09-05. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-08-31: Stuff+ 92 · Location+ 119 · Pitching+ 114 · botStf 50 · botCmd 62 · botOvr 59 · SIERA 5.64

2026-08-25: Stuff+ 91 · Location+ 106 · Pitching+ 105 · botStf 53 · botCmd 55 · botOvr 54 · SIERA 5.79

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-05; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

TEX · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.43R / inningband [0.38–0.48]

0.102 R/PA · 0.144 R/out · worst: Robert Garcia (4.80)

AZ · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.42R / inningband [0.36–0.47]

0.098 R/PA · 0.139 R/out · worst: Derek Law (4.48)

TEX

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Jacob Latz	CLOSER	CL	2.65	29.7	8.5	1.28	28/3/26	stable
Jakob Junis	SETUP	SU	3.75	16.4	6.1	1.12	6/17/9	stable
Chase Silseth	SETUP	MR	4.06	25.6	13.8	0.85	0/15/7	stable
Tyler Alexander	OPENER	MR	2.78	20.4	6.5	0.95	4/12/11	stable
Robert Garcia	MR	SU	3.39	22.5	17.5	0.89	0/2/1	stable
Robby Ahlstrom	MR	MR	5.05	21.2	8.1	0.82	0/6/3	stable
Trevor Williams	unknown	MR	3.99	27.1	9.4	—	0/1/0	—
Jordan Montgomery	unknown	LR	4.62	19.4	5.6	—	0/0/0	—

AZ

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Brandyn Garcia	SETUP	CL	2.29	32.3	6.1	0.83	5/16/6	stable
Juan Morillo	SETUP	CL	2.75	28.3	8.9	0.92	3/18/9	stable
Jonathan Loáisiga	SETUP	MR	2.87	19.0	4.8	0.93	1/10/11	stable
Kevin Ginkel	SETUP	SU	3.42	24.6	6.5	0.93	3/11/5	stable
Taylor Clarke	SETUP	MR	3.74	15.7	4.7	1.00	0/13/6	stable
Dennis Santana	SETUP	MR	5.05	21.5	10.3	0.95	3/5/22	stable
Justin Martinez	unknown	MR	2.57	35.5	16.1	—	0/1/0	—
Derek Law	unknown	LR	3.09	11.5	3.8	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

6 TEX · 2 AZ

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

TEX

6 R

13H · 1HR · 1BB · 9K · 14LOB

OBPe 0.366 · SLGe 0.526 · K% 21.9

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 10 K · relief 5.0 IP · 4 arms

AZ

2 R

6H · 0HR · 2BB · 10K · 17LOB

OBPe 0.250 · SLGe 0.250 · K% 27.8

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 6 ER · 9 K · relief 2.3 IP · 4 arms

TEX · standout lines

big nights

Brandon Nimmo (RF) · 2-5 | 2 2B, 2 K, RBI4 TB
Wyatt Langford (LF) · 2-4 | HR, 2B, 2 KHR
Elias Díaz (C) · 3-4 | K, RBI, R3 H

AZ · standout lines

tough nights

Ketel Marte (2B) · 0-40-for-4
Corbin Carroll (RF) · 0-3 | 3 K, RBI0-for-3 · 3 K
Ryan Waldschmidt (LF) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K