Baseball Daily

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today's slate

SEA @ ATH

Saturday · September 12, 2026·full·gamePk 824955free Saturday

refreshed 317h 42m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Sutter Health Park

gametime 9:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

72°F

humidity 41%

wind

12 mph

out to CF

precip

clear

park

ATH

open · HP→CF 45°

wind impact on total

+0.44 R/Gmoderate out

Moderate wind out: +0.44 R/G vs neutral. _Sutter Health Park (Sacramento) — open bowl, delta breeze in afternoon_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Bryan WooRHP · SEA	Gage JumpLHP · ATH
xERA 2026	3.55	4.51
xwOBA 2026	0.292	0.326
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.012	0.007
xERA 2025	3.07	—
xwOBA 2025	0.274	—
Outs/TB 25-26	2.24	1.90
FIP 25-26	3.40	3.73
kwERA 25-26	2.87	3.68
K% 25-26	26.1%	24.9%
BB% 25-26	5.1%	10.6%
IP 25+26 combined	343.0	96.7
ERA actual 2026	4.03	5.12
ERA (L4)	3.38	6.30
WHIP (L4)	0.79	1.35
K% (L4)	28.3%	21.8%
BB% (L4)	5.4%	10.3%
IP/gm (L4)	6.00	5.00
L4 window	08/16→09/06 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified	08/14→09/06 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
Arsenal RV/100	0.79	-0.37

away arsenal — SEA

RV/100 0.79

4-Seam Fastball—+1.10xwOBA 0.316
Sinker—+0.60xwOBA 0.322
Slider—-0.10xwOBA 0.314
Sweeper—+0.30xwOBA 0.208
Changeup—+3.70xwOBA 0.194
Curveball—-4.90xwOBA 0.194

home arsenal — ATH

RV/100 -0.37

4-Seam Fastball—-0.80xwOBA 0.348
Slider—+1.70xwOBA 0.310
Curveball—-0.30xwOBA 0.259
Changeup—-1.90xwOBA 0.298
Sweeper—+0.50xwOBA 0.194
Sinker—-3.80xwOBA 0.520

away · SEA vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.554

Σ match

2.930

Σ FRV

-26.6

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	J.P. Crawford	0.322	0.341	-7.5
2	LF	Randy Arozarena	0.346	0.351	-6.9
3	RF	Dominic Canzone	0.351	0.388	+0.1
4	C	Cal Raleigh	0.313	0.315	-4.2
5	CF	Julio Rodríguez	0.335	0.352	-0.1
6	1B	Josh Naylor	0.313	0.325	+3.2
7	2B	Cole Young	0.317	0.331	-3.3
8	DH	Michael Arroyo	0.005	0.249	+0.3
9	3B	Weston Wilson	0.252	0.277	-8.3

home · ATH vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.790

Σ match

2.679

Σ FRV

-28.4

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Henry Bolte	0.317	0.302	+3.8
2	1B	Jeff McNeil	0.306	0.297	-1.7
3	RF	Lawrence Butler	0.321	0.308	-10.8
4	DH	Shea Langeliers	0.363	0.336	-3.6
5	2B	Donovan Walton	0.342	0.325	-6.0
6	3B	Zack Gelof	0.308	0.291	-0.4
7	LF	Carlos Cortes	0.305	0.306	-6.0
8	C	Jonah Heim	0.289	0.274	-5.7
9	SS	Alika Williams	0.239	0.240	+2.1

defense · SEA catcher (Savant FRV)

Cal Raleigh

FRV-4.2
framing-3.8
blocking+2.5
throwing-2.9

defense · ATH catcher (Savant FRV)

Jonah Heim

FRV-5.7
framing-1.1
blocking-2.1
throwing-1.4

SEA · Bryan Woo

Last outing 2026-09-06 vs ATH · 8.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-26 → 2026-09-06. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-01: Stuff+ 107 · Location+ 110 · Pitching+ 110 · botStf 53 · botCmd 58 · botOvr 57 · SIERA 3.04

2026-08-26: Stuff+ 114 · Location+ 97 · Pitching+ 105 · botStf 53 · botCmd 59 · botOvr 59 · SIERA 3.35

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-06; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

ATH · Gage Jump

Last outing 2026-09-06 vs SEA · 4.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-25 → 2026-09-06. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-08-31: Stuff+ 97 · Location+ 87 · Pitching+ 86 · botStf 50 · botCmd 48 · botOvr 50 · SIERA 7.29

2026-08-25: Stuff+ 108 · Location+ 113 · Pitching+ 120 · botStf 56 · botCmd 62 · botOvr 64 · SIERA 2.70

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

SEA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.43R / inningband [0.38–0.47]

0.100 R/PA · 0.142 R/out · worst: Hoby Milner (4.50)

ATH · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.44R / inningband [0.37–0.51]

0.104 R/PA · 0.148 R/out · worst: Geoff Hartlieb (5.13)

SEA

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Andrés Muñoz	CLOSER	CL	2.96	37.6	10.2	0.93	27/0/29	stable
José A. Ferrer	SETUP	SU	3.99	17.9	6.7	0.89	3/13/7	stable
Gabe Speier	SETUP	MR	4.21	22.4	8.2	0.82	1/20/5	stable
Hoby Milner	SETUP	MR	4.65	13.1	5.6	0.94	1/6/7	stable
Eduard Bazardo	SETUP	MR	4.70	23.2	8.0	0.94	0/26/2	stable
Seranthony Domínguez	SETUP	MR	4.91	25.0	13.1	0.89	12/7/18	stable
Cooper Criswell	MR	LR	3.68	18.7	7.2	1.18	1/3/12	stable
Michael Rucker	MR	MR	4.11	26.9	8.1	1.05	0/1/6	stable
Carlos Vargas	unknown	MR	3.26	21.3	4.3	—	0/0/0	—

ATH

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Luis Medina	SETUP	SU	3.58	29.5	12.0	1.38	0/12/10	stable
Hogan Harris	SETUP	CL	4.02	28.7	13.8	0.93	15/13/13	stable
Geoff Hartlieb	MR	MR	4.21	13.6	11.4	2.13	0/2/3	ramping down
Elvis Alvarado	MR	CL	4.38	28.6	11.3	1.08	6/9/11	stable
Seth Johnson	MR	MR	4.53	26.8	15.2	1.13	0/0/4	stable
Chris Roycroft	MR	MR	6.46	13.8	8.8	1.28	1/1/6	ramping up
Yunior Tur	MR	MR	9.72	21.3	12.8	2.00	0/0/0	insufficient data
Scott Blewett	unknown	MR	2.68	21.3	7.4	—	0/2/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

19 SEA · 1 ATH

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

SEA

19 R

23H · 5HR · 6BB · 4K · 22LOB

OBPe 0.545 · SLGe 0.894 · K% 7.3

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 0 ER · 7 K · relief 3.0 IP · 4 arms

ATH

1 R

5H · 0HR · 3BB · 7K · 16LOB

OBPe 0.222 · SLGe 0.151 · K% 19.4

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 17 ER · 4 K · relief 7.0 IP · 5 arms

SEA · standout lines

big nights

J.P. Crawford (SS) · 2-6 | HR, HBP, 2 RBIHR
Randy Arozarena (LF) · 2-5 | HR, K, 4 RBIHR · 4 RBI
Dominic Canzone (RF) · 2-4 | HR, K, 2 RBIHR
Julio Rodríguez (CF) · 3-5 | 2B, BB, 2 R3 H · 4 TB

tough nights

Cal Raleigh (C) · 0-4 | 2 BB, K, R0-for-4

ATH · standout lines

tough nights

Donovan Walton (2B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
Zack Gelof (3B) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K
Alika Williams (SS) · 0-4 | K0-for-4