Saturday · September 12, 2026·full·gamePk 824870free Saturday
refreshed 319h 23m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Truist Park
gametime 7:15 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
80°F
humidity 87%
wind
3 mph
cross LF to RF
precip
6%
clear
park
ATL
open · HP→CF 63°
wind impact on total
+0.03 R/Gnone cross
Cross wind, but too light to move the total.
opener / bulk pattern
PHI: Tim Mayza opens → bulk: no confident pattern
both opener + bulk shown side-by-side below — lineup matchup keys to the bulk pitcher (who batters see for most of the game)
openers + bulk pitchers · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Tim MayzaLHP · PHI
Tyler MahleRHP · ATL
xERA 2026
3.33
4.10
xwOBA 2026
0.283
0.312
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.008
0.002
xERA 2025
3.07
4.24
xwOBA 2025
0.274
0.319
Outs/TB 25-26
2.18
2.25
FIP 25-26
3.42
3.71
kwERA 25-26
3.35
3.82
K% 25-26
23.3%
21.3%
BB% 25-26
6.3%
8.1%
IP 25+26 combined
78.0
217.7
ERA actual 2026
3.23
4.05
ERA (L4)
0.00
1.48
WHIP (L4)
0.69
1.03
K% (L4)
12.5%
19.6%
BB% (L4)
6.2%
4.1%
IP/gm (L4)
1.08
6.08
L4 window
08/23→09/08 (4 outs) · 4/4 dates verified
08/18→09/06 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
93 (−3)
86 (−2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
3.40 (+0.23)
3.30 (−0.77)
Arsenal RV/100
1.01
0.14
away arsenal · BULK Tim Mayza — PHI
RV/100 1.01
Sinker—+2.20xwOBA 0.276
Slider—-1.80xwOBA 0.323
4-Seam Fastball—+2.90xwOBA 0.223
home arsenal — ATL
RV/100 0.14
4-Seam Fastball—+0.80xwOBA 0.297
Split-Finger—+0.10xwOBA 0.310
Cutter—+0.00xwOBA 0.318
Slider—-4.50xwOBA 0.403
away · PHI vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.904
Σ match
2.891
Σ FRV
-15.1
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
DH
Kyle Schwarber
0.365
0.358
-0.6
2
SS
Trea Turner
0.292
0.290
-7.9
3
RF
Bryce Harper
0.387
0.393
-11.5
4
2B
Luis Arraez
0.307
0.314
+10.3
5
1B
Alec Bohm
0.321
0.318
-5.2
6
3B
Bryson Stott
0.328
0.327
+5.6
7
LF
Brandon Marsh
0.305
0.306
-5.7
8
C
J.T. Realmuto
0.319
0.307
+1.1
9
CF
Justin Crawford
0.280
0.278
-1.0
home · ATL vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.781
Σ match
2.605
Σ FRV
+12.1
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
DH
Drake Baldwin
0.365
0.333
-0.5
2
RF
Ronald Acuña Jr.
0.360
0.354
-4.4
3
1B
Matt Olson
0.355
0.335
+8.6
4
2B
Ozzie Albies
0.282
0.274
-3.4
5
CF
Michael Harris II
0.337
0.306
+11.2
6
LF
Mauricio Dubón
0.305
0.299
+4.1
7
3B
Austin Riley
0.300
0.272
-1.0
8
C
Sean Murphy
0.260
0.230
-1.1
9
SS
Ha-Seong Kim
0.217
0.203
-1.5
defense · PHI catcher (Savant FRV)
J.T. Realmuto
FRV+1.1
framing-0.0
blocking-0.9
throwing+2.1
defense · ATL catcher (Savant FRV)
Sean Murphy
FRV-1.1
framing-1.0
blocking+0.6
throwing-0.8
PHI · Tim Mayza
Last outing 2026-09-08 vs Houston Astros · 1.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
96
89(-7)
93
Location+
115
131(+16)
127
Pitching+
112
109(-3)
117
botStf
51
48(-2)
49
botCmd
59
60(+1)
66
botOvr
57
58(+1)
63
SIERA
3.17
5.97(+2.80)
3.40
Last 3 starts: 2026-06-22 → 2026-07-25. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.41
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-08; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
ATL · Tyler Mahle
Last outing 2026-09-06 vs PHI · 6.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
88
87(-1)
86
Location+
109
121(+11)
117
Pitching+
100
114(+13)
106
botStf
48
50(+3)
48
botCmd
59
54(-5)
57
botOvr
54
53(-1)
52
SIERA
4.08
4.85(+0.77)
3.30
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-23 → 2026-09-06. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.27
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-06; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
PHI · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera
0.37R / inningband [0.31–0.43]
0.087 R/PA · 0.124 R/out · worst: Alex McFarlane (4.11)
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.
Post-game
actual vs projected
Final total
14
2 PHI · 12 ATL
Projected total
—
Delta
—
actual − projected
Band cover
—
PHI
2 R
7H · 2HR · 0BB · 4K · 8LOB
OBPe 0.219 · SLGe 0.406 · K% 12.5
Their pitching
8.0 IP · 6 ER · 8 K · relief 5.0 IP · 6 arms
ATL
12 R
13H · 2HR · 5BB · 8K · 13LOB
OBPe 0.442 · SLGe 0.611 · K% 18.6
Their pitching
9.0 IP · 2 ER · 4 K · relief 2.0 IP · 2 arms
PHI · standout lines
big nights
Bryce Harper (RF) · 1-3 | HR, K, RBIHR
Justin Crawford (CF) · 1-3 | HR, RBI, RHR
tough nights
Kyle Schwarber (DH) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Luis Arraez (2B) · 0-40-for-4
ATL · standout lines
big nights
Ronald Acuña Jr. (RF) · 3-3 | HR, BB, 2 RBIHR · 3 H
Michael Harris II (CF) · 4-5 | HR, 3 RBI, 2 RHR · 4 H · 7 TB