Saturday · September 12, 2026·full·gamePk 824712free Saturday
refreshed 322h 13m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Fenway Park
gametime 4:10 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
74°F
humidity 47%
wind
9 mph
in from LF
precip
0%
overcast
park
BOS
open · HP→CF 46°
wind impact on total
-0.18 R/Gminor in
Minor wind in: -0.18 R/G vs neutral. _Green Monster blocks LF wind — wind-out games still play big to RF only; foul territory tiny_
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Randy DobnakRHP · KC
Ranger SuarezLHP · BOS
xERA 2026
4.80
3.71
xwOBA 2026
0.335
0.298
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.028
-0.007
xERA 2025
5.73
3.14
xwOBA 2025
0.364
0.277
Outs/TB 25-26
2.21
2.20
FIP 25-26
4.27
3.16
kwERA 25-26
4.62
3.44
K% 25-26
15.2%
22.9%
BB% 25-26
8.7%
6.5%
IP 25+26 combined
69.0
288.0
ERA actual 2026
2.54
3.44
ERA (L4)
4.09
4.37
WHIP (L4)
1.36
1.37
K% (L4)
19.6%
12.2%
BB% (L4)
7.6%
9.2%
IP/gm (L4)
5.50
5.67
L4 window
08/20→09/06 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/18→09/04 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
84 (+1)
92 (−2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
3.98 (−0.70)
5.42 (+1.39)
Arsenal RV/100
0.42
0.76
away arsenal — KC
RV/100 0.42
Sinker—+1.60xwOBA 0.380
Sweeper—-0.80xwOBA 0.355
Changeup—-0.20xwOBA 0.263
4-Seam Fastball—+1.20xwOBA 0.260
Slider—-1.40xwOBA 0.312
home arsenal — BOS
RV/100 0.76
Sinker—+0.30xwOBA 0.347
4-Seam Fastball—+1.80xwOBA 0.309
Cutter—+1.00xwOBA 0.304
Curveball—+0.70xwOBA 0.214
Changeup—-0.30xwOBA 0.282
Slider—+0.10xwOBA 0.270
away · KC vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.664
Σ match
2.709
Σ FRV
+19.1
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
C
Carter Jensen
0.315
0.311
+1.2
2
SS
Bobby Witt Jr.
0.385
0.376
+16.1
3
DH
Salvador Perez
0.311
0.322
-9.1
4
1B
Vinnie Pasquantino
0.328
0.315
+0.3
5
3B
Nick Loftin
0.294
0.281
+0.1
6
2B
Michael Massey
0.311
0.310
+5.8
7
RF
John Rave
0.320
0.301
+1.1
8
LF
Matthew Lugo
0.139
0.249
-0.0
9
CF
Kyle Isbel
0.261
0.244
+3.5
home · BOS vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.881
Σ match
3.143
Σ FRV
+23.0
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
LF
Roman Anthony
0.353
0.364
-0.2
2
DH
Mickey Gasper
0.373
0.391
-1.9
3
C
Adley Rutschman
0.337
0.357
+11.1
4
RF
Wilyer Abreu
0.350
0.392
+4.8
5
SS
Trevor Story
0.249
0.281
-1.4
6
1B
Nick Sogard
0.317
0.339
+2.5
7
CF
Jarren Duran
0.299
0.357
+4.2
8
3B
Caleb Durbin
0.288
0.300
+5.0
9
2B
Anthony Seigler
0.315
0.361
-1.0
defense · KC catcher (Savant FRV)
Carter Jensen
FRV+1.2
framing+2.0
blocking-2.8
throwing+2.0
defense · BOS catcher (Savant FRV)
Adley Rutschman
FRV+11.1
framing+6.9
blocking+0.6
throwing+3.6
KC · Randy Dobnak
Last outing 2026-09-06 vs TOR · 6.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
82
83(+1)
84
Location+
106
98(-9)
105
Pitching+
89
78(-11)
90
botStf
41
41(-1)
42
botCmd
53
45(-8)
52
botOvr
49
40(-9)
48
SIERA
4.67
4.11(-0.56)
3.98
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-26 → 2026-09-06. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 6.53
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-06; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
BOS · Ranger Suarez
Last outing 2026-09-04 vs BAL · 7.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
94
95(+1)
92
Location+
106
103(-3)
98
Pitching+
100
93(-7)
88
botStf
45
44(-1)
44
botCmd
56
55(-1)
52
botOvr
53
51(-2)
49
SIERA
4.03
4.33(+0.30)
5.42
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-24 → 2026-09-04. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.49
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-04; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
KC · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.48R / inningband [0.42–0.54]
0.113 R/PA · 0.160 R/out · worst: Anthony Gose (5.84)
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.