Saturday · September 12, 2026·full·gamePk 824630free Saturday
refreshed 323h 52m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Wrigley Field
gametime 2:20 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
86°F
humidity 46%
wind
11 mph
out to CF
precip
1%
clear
park
CHC
open · HP→CF 36°
wind impact on total
+0.44 R/Gmoderate out
Moderate wind out: +0.44 R/G vs neutral. _THE wind park — Lake Michigan lake-effect dominates. Wind OUT (south) → HR feast. Wind IN (north off lake) → pitcher's paradise. April/Oct often wind-in cold, June/July often wind-out warm._
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Paul SkenesRHP · PIT
Clay HolmesRHP · CHC
xERA 2026
3.25
4.07
xwOBA 2026
0.280
0.311
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
0.015
-0.049
xERA 2025
2.65
4.33
xwOBA 2025
0.255
0.322
Outs/TB 25-26
2.45
2.45
FIP 25-26
2.68
3.88
kwERA 25-26
2.69
4.29
K% 25-26
28.9%
18.4%
BB% 25-26
6.3%
9.1%
IP 25+26 combined
342.7
251.7
ERA actual 2026
3.83
2.83
ERA (L4)
3.54
3.57
WHIP (L4)
1.33
1.24
K% (L4)
17.2%
17.0%
BB% (L4)
9.2%
9.6%
IP/gm (L4)
5.08
5.67
L4 window
08/19→09/06 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/19→09/06 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
101 (+3)
88 (−10)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
4.61 (+1.05)
3.92 (+0.07)
Arsenal RV/100
0.45
1.17
away arsenal — PIT
RV/100 0.45
4-Seam Fastball—+1.00xwOBA 0.280
Sweeper—+0.80xwOBA 0.232
Changeup—-1.90xwOBA 0.256
Sinker—+0.00xwOBA 0.319
Split-Finger—+0.40xwOBA 0.339
Slider—+1.50xwOBA 0.252
home arsenal — CHC
RV/100 1.17
Sinker—+1.20xwOBA 0.370
Sweeper—+1.60xwOBA 0.216
Changeup—+1.60xwOBA 0.216
Cutter—-0.60xwOBA 0.362
Curveball—+1.70xwOBA 0.213
away · PIT vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.852
Σ match
2.917
Σ FRV
+2.4
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
CF
Oneil Cruz
0.356
0.357
+1.7
2
2B
Brandon Lowe
0.322
0.323
+11.5
3
LF
Bryan Reynolds
0.362
0.373
-3.2
4
SS
Konnor Griffin
0.304
0.316
-3.7
5
DH
Ryan O'Hearn
0.321
0.349
-2.7
6
1B
Spencer Horwitz
0.310
0.302
-4.6
7
RF
Jake Mangum
0.285
0.282
+2.2
8
3B
Jacob Gonzalez
0.306
0.298
-1.4
9
C
Henry Davis
0.286
0.316
+2.6
home · CHC vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.913
Σ match
2.560
Σ FRV
+46.9
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
CF
Pete Crow-Armstrong
0.373
0.330
+27.0
2
3B
Alex Bregman
0.320
0.284
+6.4
3
1B
Michael Busch
0.330
0.286
+1.2
4
LF
Ian Happ
0.313
0.272
+5.1
5
SS
Nico Hoerner
0.324
0.283
+7.7
6
DH
Michael Conforto
0.336
0.291
-1.8
7
C
Carson Kelly
0.312
0.277
+0.4
8
2B
Pedro Ramírez
0.289
0.253
-0.3
9
RF
Tyrone Taylor
0.316
0.283
+1.1
defense · PIT catcher (Savant FRV)
Henry Davis
FRV+2.6
framing+0.2
blocking+0.5
throwing+1.9
defense · CHC catcher (Savant FRV)
Carson Kelly
FRV+0.4
framing+1.6
blocking+1.6
throwing-2.7
PIT · Paul Skenes
Last outing 2026-09-06 vs LAA · 5.1 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
98
108(+9)
101
Location+
107
106(-1)
108
Pitching+
105
103(-2)
106
botStf
52
51(-1)
52
botCmd
56
54(-3)
55
botOvr
56
55(-1)
57
SIERA
3.57
4.73(+1.17)
4.61
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-25 → 2026-09-06. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.85
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-06; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
CHC · Clay Holmes
Last outing 2026-09-06 vs MIA · 4.1 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
98
80(-18)
88
Location+
100
102(+2)
104
Pitching+
98
92(-5)
97
botStf
51
49(-2)
49
botCmd
51
43(-9)
50
botOvr
54
48(-6)
51
SIERA
3.85
5.53(+1.68)
3.92
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-25 → 2026-09-06. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 5.16
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-06; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.