Saturday · September 12, 2026·full·gamePk 824224free Saturday
refreshed 325h 14m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Comerica Park
gametime 1:10 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
78°F
humidity 73%
wind
8 mph
in from LF
precip
1%
overcast
park
DET
open · HP→CF 150°
wind impact on total
-0.13 R/Gminor in
Minor wind in: -0.13 R/G vs neutral. _Comerica's huge CF + upper-deck overhang creates dead-air zone in deep CF_
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Tanner GordonRHP · COL
Andrew SearsLHP · DET
xERA 2026
4.42
3.25
xwOBA 2026
0.323
0.280
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
0.045
0.044
xERA 2025
5.88
—
xwOBA 2025
0.368
—
Outs/TB 25-26
1.37
1.85
FIP 25-26
4.71
3.82
kwERA 25-26
3.72
4.22
K% 25-26
18.6%
15.7%
BB% 25-26
4.6%
5.9%
IP 25+26 combined
168.7
12.3
ERA actual 2026
5.40
4.38
ERA (L4)
4.91
4.38
WHIP (L4)
1.36
1.22
K% (L4)
14.9%
15.7%
BB% (L4)
4.3%
5.9%
IP/gm (L4)
5.50
4.11
L4 window
08/21→09/06 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/23→09/04 (3 outs) · 3/3 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
87 (+0)
103 (+1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
4.28 (+0.25)
4.99 (+0.13)
Arsenal RV/100
-0.80
-0.05
away arsenal — COL
RV/100 -0.80
4-Seam Fastball—-0.40xwOBA 0.338
Changeup—+0.20xwOBA 0.308
Slider—-1.50xwOBA 0.304
Curveball—-3.80xwOBA 0.264
Cutter—-0.30xwOBA 0.324
home arsenal — DET
RV/100 -0.05
4-Seam Fastball—+2.00xwOBA 0.230
Slider—-3.10xwOBA 0.441
away · COL vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.724
Σ match
2.662
Σ FRV
+2.3
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
LF
Jake McCarthy
0.322
0.309
-1.0
2
2B
Connor Norby
0.301
0.273
-0.8
3
C
Hunter Goodman
0.319
0.329
-1.4
4
1B
TJ Rumfield
0.334
0.317
+5.5
5
CF
Cole Carrigg
0.316
0.314
+1.8
6
3B
Kyle Karros
0.338
0.341
+0.4
7
RF
Jordan Beck
0.248
0.239
-3.2
8
DH
Adael Amador
0.270
0.285
+0.3
9
SS
Ezequiel Tovar
0.276
0.255
+0.6
home · DET vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.968
Σ match
2.958
Σ FRV
-18.0
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
3B
Kevin McGonigle
0.350
0.356
-0.0
2
2B
Hao-Yu Lee
0.299
0.309
-8.3
3
DH
Colt Keith
0.334
0.329
-0.9
4
LF
Riley Greene
0.374
0.373
-5.6
5
C
Eduardo Valencia
0.323
0.316
+1.3
6
CF
Max Clark
0.318
0.314
+2.3
7
1B
Spencer Torkelson
0.309
0.318
-6.2
8
RF
Brett Callahan
0.291
0.304
-1.0
9
SS
John Peck
0.370
0.338
+0.4
defense · COL catcher (Savant FRV)
Hunter Goodman
FRV-1.4
framing-0.1
blocking-0.6
throwing-0.8
defense · DET catcher (Savant FRV)
Eduardo Valencia
FRV+1.3
framing+0.7
blocking+0.6
throwing+0.1
COL · Tanner Gordon
Last outing 2026-09-06 vs STL · 4.2 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
87
84(-3)
87
Location+
110
113(+4)
115
Pitching+
94
94(-0)
99
botStf
42
37(-5)
41
botCmd
60
54(-6)
58
botOvr
52
46(-7)
50
SIERA
4.02
4.31(+0.28)
4.28
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-26 → 2026-09-06. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 5.46
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-06; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
DET · Andrew Sears
Last outing 2026-09-04 vs CLE · 5.2 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
102
106(+4)
103
Location+
99
89(-10)
96
Pitching+
102
94(-8)
100
botStf
50
49(-1)
49
botCmd
55
49(-7)
53
botOvr
51
48(-3)
50
SIERA
4.86
5.25(+0.38)
4.99
Last 3 outings: 2026-08-23 → 2026-09-04. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 5.13
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-04; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.