Saturday · September 12, 2026·full·gamePk 823819free Saturday
refreshed 322h 9m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · loanDepot park
gametime 4:10 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
84°F
humidity 79%
wind
3 mph
out to LF
precip
23%
partly cloudy
park
MIA
retractable · HP→CF 40°
wind impact on total
+0.01 R/Gnone out
Out wind, but too light to move the total.
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Tyler GlasnowRHP · LAD
Tyler PhillipsRHP · MIA
xERA 2026
2.65
4.61
xwOBA 2026
0.253
0.329
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.019
-0.014
xERA 2025
3.33
3.66
xwOBA 2025
0.285
0.298
Outs/TB 25-26
2.83
2.14
FIP 25-26
3.33
4.35
kwERA 25-26
3.01
4.31
K% 25-26
30.1%
18.0%
BB% 25-26
10.2%
8.9%
IP 25+26 combined
148.0
193.0
ERA actual 2026
3.12
3.51
ERA (L4)
4.00
3.60
WHIP (L4)
1.00
1.10
K% (L4)
29.6%
25.0%
BB% (L4)
5.6%
8.8%
IP/gm (L4)
6.00
5.00
L4 window
08/25→09/05 (3 st) · 3/3 dates verified
08/13→09/06 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
98 (−5)
96 (−2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
3.04 (+0.19)
4.20 (−0.33)
Arsenal RV/100
1.45
0.04
away arsenal — LAD
RV/100 1.45
4-Seam Fastball—+0.50xwOBA 0.330
Curveball—+0.90xwOBA 0.142
Sinker—+2.60xwOBA 0.316
Slider—+2.60xwOBA 0.232
home arsenal — MIA
RV/100 0.04
Sinker—-1.20xwOBA 0.390
Sweeper—+0.80xwOBA 0.276
Split-Finger—+1.90xwOBA 0.258
Curveball—+0.10xwOBA 0.347
4-Seam Fastball—-4.00xwOBA 0.385
away · LAD vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.930
Σ match
2.944
Σ FRV
+2.8
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
CF
Tommy Edman
0.315
0.329
+1.5
2
1B
Freddie Freeman
0.369
0.370
+2.0
3
SS
Mookie Betts
0.333
0.357
+7.8
4
3B
Max Muncy
0.350
0.324
+3.0
5
RF
Kyle Tucker
0.330
0.341
-7.4
6
LF
Teoscar Hernández
0.330
0.323
-6.2
7
DH
Josue De Paula
0.302
0.313
—
8
C
Hunter Feduccia
0.314
0.296
+0.7
9
2B
Alex Freeland
0.287
0.291
+1.3
home · MIA vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.807
Σ match
2.504
Σ FRV
+15.0
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
1B
Kyle Stowers
0.331
0.282
-2.7
2
LF
Heriberto Hernández
0.355
0.309
+0.3
3
DH
Griffin Conine
0.365
0.334
-1.8
4
SS
Otto Lopez
0.326
0.318
+10.0
5
CF
Jakob Marsee
0.308
0.251
+3.5
6
2B
Javier Sanoja
0.292
0.261
+3.0
7
RF
Owen Caissie
0.300
0.266
-8.9
8
3B
Graham Pauley
0.237
0.220
+1.4
9
C
Joe Mack
0.293
0.262
+10.1
defense · LAD catcher (Savant FRV)
Hunter Feduccia
FRV+0.7
framing+3.8
blocking-0.9
throwing-2.3
defense · MIA catcher (Savant FRV)
Joe Mack
FRV+10.1
framing+5.7
blocking-0.1
throwing+4.5
LAD · Tyler Glasnow
Last outing 2026-09-05 vs WSH · 6.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
103
97(-5)
98
Location+
100
96(-3)
105
Pitching+
106
101(-4)
109
botStf
57
58(+1)
57
botCmd
53
47(-5)
52
botOvr
54
50(-4)
54
SIERA
2.86
3.98(+1.13)
3.04
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-25 → 2026-09-05. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.79
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-05; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
MIA · Tyler Phillips
Last outing 2026-09-06 vs CHC · 5.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
97
103(+5)
96
Location+
98
109(+11)
105
Pitching+
95
104(+8)
98
botStf
54
53(-1)
52
botCmd
52
54(+2)
51
botOvr
54
57(+3)
54
SIERA
4.53
4.50(-0.03)
4.20
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-25 → 2026-09-06. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.51
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-06; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.