Saturday · September 12, 2026·full·gamePk 823737free Saturday
refreshed 319h 22m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · American Family Field
gametime 7:10 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
78°F
humidity 68%
wind
10 mph
out to LF
precip
1%
clear
park
MIL
retractable · HP→CF 137°
wind impact on total
neutralnone out
Out wind, but too light to move the total.
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Brady SingerRHP · CIN
Shane DrohanLHP · MIL
xERA 2026
5.23
3.69
xwOBA 2026
0.348
0.297
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
0.008
0.022
xERA 2025
4.27
—
xwOBA 2025
0.320
—
Outs/TB 25-26
1.82
1.96
FIP 25-26
4.52
3.60
kwERA 25-26
3.89
3.52
K% 25-26
20.7%
23.8%
BB% 25-26
8.1%
8.1%
IP 25+26 combined
316.3
114.3
ERA actual 2026
5.03
4.09
ERA (L4)
7.29
5.59
WHIP (L4)
1.62
1.60
K% (L4)
15.8%
24.7%
BB% (L4)
8.9%
10.6%
IP/gm (L4)
5.25
4.83
L4 window
08/20→09/06 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/13→09/04 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
88 (−4)
101 (+1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
4.79 (+0.32)
3.92 (+0.10)
Arsenal RV/100
-0.90
-0.00
away arsenal — CIN
RV/100 -0.90
Sinker—-0.20xwOBA 0.359
Slider—-0.70xwOBA 0.328
Sweeper—-1.50xwOBA 0.283
Cutter—-3.70xwOBA 0.468
4-Seam Fastball—-7.00xwOBA 0.474
home arsenal — MIL
RV/100 -0.00
4-Seam Fastball—+0.70xwOBA 0.252
Slider—+1.80xwOBA 0.210
Sinker—-1.90xwOBA 0.377
Curveball—-1.50xwOBA 0.342
Cutter—+1.30xwOBA 0.368
Changeup—-2.50xwOBA 0.353
away · CIN vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.843
Σ match
2.798
Σ FRV
-13.1
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
CF
Dane Myers
0.312
0.302
-1.4
2
SS
Elly De La Cruz
0.373
0.369
+4.1
3
1B
Sal Stewart
0.350
0.339
-4.5
4
C
Tyler Stephenson
0.333
0.334
-6.9
5
DH
Eugenio Suárez
0.293
0.287
-6.3
6
LF
JJ Bleday
0.342
0.340
-2.1
7
2B
Juan Brito
0.269
0.276
-0.6
8
RF
Héctor Rodríguez
0.271
0.254
+0.5
9
3B
Ke'Bryan Hayes
0.300
0.295
+4.1
home · MIL vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.931
Σ match
3.351
Σ FRV
+3.5
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
LF
Jackson Chourio
0.342
0.370
+6.9
2
2B
Brice Turang
0.342
0.398
+12.7
3
1B
Jake Bauers
0.378
0.420
-8.9
4
DH
Christian Yelich
0.312
0.344
+0.0
5
C
William Contreras
0.335
0.379
-3.6
6
CF
Garrett Mitchell
0.353
0.426
+3.9
7
RF
Sal Frelick
0.284
0.312
-2.2
8
SS
Cooper Pratt
0.309
0.369
+2.8
9
3B
David Hamilton
0.276
0.331
-8.1
defense · CIN catcher (Savant FRV)
Tyler Stephenson
FRV-6.9
framing-9.0
blocking+3.1
throwing-1.0
defense · MIL catcher (Savant FRV)
William Contreras
FRV-3.6
framing-5.4
blocking-1.1
throwing+2.8
CIN · Brady Singer
Last outing 2026-09-06 vs MIL · 5.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
92
90(-1)
88
Location+
97
75(-22)
94
Pitching+
89
67(-22)
84
botStf
47
47(-1)
48
botCmd
54
49(-5)
54
botOvr
51
44(-7)
50
SIERA
4.47
8.10(+3.63)
4.79
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-25 → 2026-09-06. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 5.77
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-06; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
MIL · Shane Drohan
Last outing 2026-09-04 vs CIN · 4.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
100
101(+1)
101
Location+
103
86(-17)
92
Pitching+
102
85(-17)
90
botStf
51
55(+4)
52
botCmd
56
50(-6)
49
botOvr
54
51(-3)
50
SIERA
3.82
3.84(+0.02)
3.92
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-23 → 2026-09-04. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.58
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-04; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
CIN · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera
0.43R / inningband [0.38–0.48]
0.102 R/PA · 0.144 R/out · worst: Tony Santillan (4.66)
MIL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera
0.41R / inningband [0.37–0.46]
0.097 R/PA · 0.138 R/out · worst: Antonio Senzatela (4.15)
CIN
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Emilio Pagán
CLOSER
CL
4.70
24.3
6.6
0.91
22/0/15
stable
Graham Ashcraft
SETUP
MR
3.51
28.6
15.1
1.04
1/11/5
stable
Brock Burke
SETUP
SU
3.81
24.3
13.2
0.95
2/18/10
stable
Pierce Johnson
SETUP
MR
4.79
19.1
9.6
0.88
1/8/8
stable
Tony Santillan
SETUP
MR
7.10
19.7
13.5
0.91
5/11/11
stable
Luis Mey
MR
MR
3.76
31.2
13.8
1.24
0/4/0
ramping down
Tejay Antone
MR
SU
3.85
25.0
7.2
1.00
1/9/6
stable
Julian Garcia
MR
MR
4.57
23.5
10.0
1.62
2/3/2
stable
MIL
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Trevor Megill
CLOSER
CL
1.93
28.8
6.8
0.97
27/7/21
stable
Abner Uribe
SETUP
SU
2.90
25.9
8.8
0.99
6/20/13
stable
Aaron Ashby
SETUP
SU
3.04
31.2
11.2
1.23
2/15/5
stable
JoJo Romero
SETUP
MR
4.17
21.9
8.6
0.98
0/21/4
stable
Chad Patrick
SWING
MR
4.02
20.8
9.9
2.46
5/10/5
ramping down
Garrett Stallings
MR
LR
2.18
27.5
10.0
1.50
1/0/2
insufficient data
Antonio Senzatela
MR
MR
3.63
19.2
8.7
1.61
3/10/11
ramping down
DL Hall
MR
MR
3.84
27.6
15.6
1.29
0/5/5
stable
glossary
Pitcher metrics
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.