Saturday · September 12, 2026·full·gamePk 823657free Saturday
refreshed 322h 10m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Target Field
gametime 4:10 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
74°F
humidity 31%
wind
13 mph
out to RF
precip
0%
clear
park
MIN
open · HP→CF 73°
wind impact on total
+0.28 R/Gminor out
Minor wind out: +0.28 R/G vs neutral. _Northwest summer winds — typically wind-in from LF, suppresses RH HR_
opener / bulk pattern
CLE: Daniel Espino opens → bulk: no confident pattern
both opener + bulk shown side-by-side below — lineup matchup keys to the bulk pitcher (who batters see for most of the game)
openers + bulk pitchers · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Daniel EspinoRHP · CLE
Connor PrielippLHP · MIN
xERA 2026
2.28
4.13
xwOBA 2026
0.235
0.313
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
0.052
0.016
xERA 2025
—
—
xwOBA 2025
—
—
Outs/TB 25-26
2.31
1.88
FIP 25-26
1.99
3.91
kwERA 25-26
1.49
3.45
K% 25-26
41.9%
24.8%
BB% 25-26
9.3%
8.6%
IP 25+26 combined
10.0
108.0
ERA actual 2026
2.70
5.25
ERA (L4)
—
8.44
WHIP (L4)
—
1.69
K% (L4)
—
26.6%
BB% (L4)
—
9.6%
IP/gm (L4)
—
5.33
L4 window
—
08/09→08/26 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
—
103 (−0)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
—
3.87 (−0.10)
Arsenal RV/100
0.49
-0.45
away arsenal · BULK Daniel Espino — CLE
RV/100 0.49
4-Seam Fastball—+1.50xwOBA 0.227
Slider—-1.70xwOBA 0.279
home arsenal — MIN
RV/100 -0.45
Slider—+0.70xwOBA 0.281
4-Seam Fastball—-1.90xwOBA 0.427
Curveball—-0.50xwOBA 0.168
Sinker—-0.40xwOBA 0.336
Changeup—+0.00xwOBA 0.331
away · CLE vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.749
Σ match
2.768
Σ FRV
+8.6
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
CF
Steven Kwan
0.322
0.318
+6.9
2
3B
José Ramírez
0.328
0.334
+0.8
3
DH
Chase DeLauter
0.345
0.351
+1.6
4
RF
Jo Adell
0.323
0.322
-8.2
5
LF
Angel Martínez
0.305
0.319
+2.9
6
1B
David Fry
0.253
0.247
-2.1
7
2B
Travis Bazzana
0.306
0.296
-2.3
8
C
Austin Hedges
0.275
0.281
-1.8
9
SS
Brayan Rocchio
0.292
0.301
+10.7
home · MIN vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.509
Σ match
2.229
Σ FRV
-14.1
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
RF
Luke Keaschall
0.316
0.247
-11.0
2
3B
Brooks Lee
0.275
0.226
-0.3
3
2B
Kody Clemens
0.339
0.255
-2.6
4
DH
Josh Bell
0.335
0.278
-0.9
5
1B
Royce Lewis
0.311
0.217
-2.1
6
SS
Kaelen Culpepper
0.303
0.240
+0.1
7
C
Victor Caratini
0.317
0.240
+0.3
8
LF
Austin Martin
0.313
0.241
+2.3
9
CF
Emmanuel Rodriguez
—
0.285
—
defense · CLE catcher (Savant FRV)
Austin Hedges
FRV-1.8
framing+1.4
blocking-0.9
throwing-2.2
defense · MIN catcher (Savant FRV)
Victor Caratini
FRV+0.3
framing+2.7
blocking+0.8
throwing-3.9
CLE · Daniel Espino: no recent outing on file.
MIN · Connor Prielipp
Last outing 2026-09-07 vs Detroit Tigers · 4.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
103
105(+2)
103
Location+
104
111(+7)
104
Pitching+
104
113(+10)
105
botStf
54
54(-0)
54
botCmd
55
60(+6)
59
botOvr
55
59(+4)
58
SIERA
3.97
2.13(-1.84)
3.87
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-15 → 2026-08-26. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.15
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-07; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
CLE · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.40R / inningband [0.31–0.49]
0.094 R/PA · 0.134 R/out · worst: Tim Herrin (4.12)
MIN · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera
0.40R / inningband [0.33–0.47]
0.094 R/PA · 0.134 R/out · worst: Taylor Rogers (4.45)
CLE
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Cade Smith
CLOSER
CL
2.38
35.3
8.2
1.05
36/0/37
stable
Erik Sabrowski
SETUP
SU
2.84
37.0
14.4
0.78
1/24/2
stable
Matt Festa
SETUP
MR
3.40
24.6
7.0
0.97
1/7/13
stable
Hunter Gaddis
SETUP
SU
3.73
22.3
9.4
0.86
1/28/2
stable
Tim Herrin
SETUP
MR
4.24
22.3
11.6
0.79
0/15/5
stable
Daniel Espino
MR
MR
1.99
41.9
9.3
1.00
0/0/1
stable
Franco Aleman
MR
MR
4.06
28.7
10.6
1.11
0/3/0
stable
Craig Yoho
MR
MR
4.57
25.5
9.4
1.33
0/2/5
stable
Slade Cecconi
SP
LR
4.66
18.2
7.3
5.21
0/0/0
ramping up
MIN
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Yoendrys Gómez
CLOSER
CL
4.56
21.0
12.9
1.12
22/6/26
ramping down
Jeff Hoffman
SETUP
SU
2.42
34.4
9.3
0.94
5/18/16
stable
Kody Funderburk
SETUP
MR
3.87
20.8
12.6
0.94
1/11/1
stable
Taylor Rogers
SETUP
MR
4.10
19.1
11.2
0.82
2/9/10
stable
Andrew Morris
OPENER
MR
3.21
21.1
8.3
1.31
4/21/6
ramping down
Tommy Nance
MR
MR
3.78
25.6
9.0
1.04
0/6/4
stable
A.J. Minter
MR
SU
3.96
21.7
4.5
1.00
0/8/8
stable
Travis Adams
MR
LR
4.11
26.0
10.6
1.46
2/1/6
stable
glossary
Pitcher metrics
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.