Saturday · September 12, 2026·full·gamePk 823496free Saturday
refreshed 324h 48m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Yankee Stadium
gametime 1:35 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
81°F
humidity 43%
wind
10 mph
cross LF to RF
precip
0%
overcast
park
NYY
open · HP→CF 75°
wind impact on total
neutralnone cross
Cross wind, but too light to move the total.
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Zac ThorntonLHP · NYM
Gerrit ColeRHP · NYY
xERA 2026
4.67
3.66
xwOBA 2026
0.331
0.296
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.013
0.000
xERA 2025
—
—
xwOBA 2025
—
—
Outs/TB 25-26
1.90
1.91
FIP 25-26
4.48
3.70
kwERA 25-26
3.78
2.99
K% 25-26
19.1%
24.9%
BB% 25-26
5.6%
4.9%
IP 25+26 combined
66.3
111.0
ERA actual 2026
3.53
3.41
ERA (L4)
5.14
4.07
WHIP (L4)
1.33
1.11
K% (L4)
24.4%
21.0%
BB% (L4)
2.2%
3.0%
IP/gm (L4)
5.25
6.08
L4 window
08/18→09/05 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified
08/20→09/06 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
100 (+2)
105 (+2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
3.31 (−1.00)
4.99 (+1.35)
Arsenal RV/100
0.06
0.62
away arsenal — NYM
RV/100 0.06
Cutter—+0.30xwOBA 0.374
4-Seam Fastball—+0.80xwOBA 0.303
Sweeper—+0.20xwOBA 0.254
Slider—-3.50xwOBA 0.402
Sinker—+2.30xwOBA 0.369
Curveball—-2.00xwOBA 0.220
Changeup—-1.40xwOBA 0.295
home arsenal — NYY
RV/100 0.62
4-Seam Fastball—+1.50xwOBA 0.283
Slider—+1.00xwOBA 0.284
Curveball—-2.20xwOBA 0.345
Changeup—+0.50xwOBA 0.256
Sinker—-2.20xwOBA 0.546
away · NYM vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.970
Σ match
2.858
Σ FRV
+11.0
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
SS
Francisco Lindor
0.334
0.318
-0.3
2
DH
Juan Soto
0.415
0.404
-2.9
3
3B
Bo Bichette
0.328
0.311
-2.3
4
RF
Carson Benge
0.334
0.315
+5.8
5
1B
Jared Young
0.311
0.302
+0.0
6
2B
Marcus Semien
0.307
0.298
-7.0
7
CF
A.J. Ewing
0.327
0.306
+6.8
8
C
Luis Torrens
0.295
0.295
+9.7
9
LF
Nick Morabito
0.319
0.310
+1.2
home · NYY vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.879
Σ match
3.101
Σ FRV
+9.2
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
1B
Paul Goldschmidt
0.314
0.324
+6.1
2
DH
Aaron Judge
0.407
0.411
-1.2
3
LF
Cody Bellinger
0.339
0.356
+10.0
4
RF
Heliot Ramos
0.329
0.360
-5.4
5
3B
Amed Rosario
0.312
0.340
-7.6
6
CF
Spencer Jones
0.332
0.386
-3.0
7
SS
George Lombard Jr.
0.265
0.289
-0.5
8
2B
Anthony Volpe
0.292
0.297
+5.2
9
C
Austin Wells
0.289
0.339
+5.8
defense · NYM catcher (Savant FRV)
Luis Torrens
FRV+9.7
framing+5.8
blocking+1.5
throwing+2.3
defense · NYY catcher (Savant FRV)
Austin Wells
FRV+5.8
framing+5.7
blocking+1.5
throwing-1.5
NYM · Zac Thornton
Last outing 2026-09-05 vs SF · 5.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
98
102(+4)
100
Location+
95
92(-3)
100
Pitching+
93
94(+1)
99
botStf
48
53(+5)
50
botCmd
52
47(-5)
53
botOvr
52
52(-0)
53
SIERA
4.32
3.59(-0.73)
3.31
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-25 → 2026-09-05. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.45
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-05; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
NYY · Gerrit Cole
Last outing 2026-09-06 vs SD · 7.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
103
104(+1)
105
Location+
105
119(+14)
113
Pitching+
105
121(+16)
114
botStf
52
53(+1)
52
botCmd
57
64(+7)
61
botOvr
57
65(+9)
61
SIERA
3.64
7.20(+3.56)
4.99
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-27 → 2026-09-06. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 2.09
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-06; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.
Post-game
actual vs projected
Final total
14
12 NYM · 2 NYY
Projected total
—
Delta
—
actual − projected
Band cover
—
NYM
12 R
14H · 6HR · 2BB · 7K · 8LOB
OBPe 0.381 · SLGe 0.850 · K% 16.7
Their pitching
9.0 IP · 2 ER · 6 K · relief 2.0 IP · 2 arms
NYY
2 R
7H · 1HR · 1BB · 6K · 14LOB
OBPe 0.235 · SLGe 0.333 · K% 17.6
Their pitching
9.0 IP · 12 ER · 7 K · relief 4.7 IP · 4 arms
NYM · standout lines
big nights
Francisco Lindor (SS) · 3-5 | 2 HR, K, 5 RBI2-HR night · 3 H · 9 TB · 5 RBI