SD @ SF

Saturday · September 12, 2026·full·gamePk 823170free Saturday
refreshed 322h 16m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Oracle Park

gametime 4:05 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
68°F
humidity 64%
wind
18 mph
out to CF
precip
0%
clear
park
SF
open · HP→CF 91°
CFHP1B3BOUT
wind impact on total
+0.57 R/Gmoderate out

Moderate wind out: +0.57 R/G vs neutral. _Oracle Park — the famous wind park. McCovey Cove wind blows IN HARD from west most days, suppresses HR violently. Calm summer warm games (rare) let ball fly to LF_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metricMichael KingRHP · SDCesar PerdomoLHP · SF
xERA 20264.363.14
xwOBA 20260.3210.275
wOBA−xwOBA 2026-0.029-0.039
xERA 20254.24—
xwOBA 20250.319—
Outs/TB 25-262.323.00
FIP 25-264.243.39
kwERA 25-263.863.34
K% 25-2622.1%22.9%
BB% 25-269.3%5.7%
IP 25+26 combined241.310.0
ERA actual 20263.000.90
ERA (L4)0.700.90
WHIP (L4)1.050.80
K% (L4)19.8%22.9%
BB% (L4)9.9%5.7%
IP/gm (L4)6.425.00
L4 window08/19→09/06 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified09/01→09/06 (2 outs) · 2/2 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)95 (−1)88 (−2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)4.64 (+0.20)3.38 (+0.11)
Arsenal RV/1000.642.26

away arsenal — SD

RV/100 0.64
  • Sinker—-0.10xwOBA 0.391
  • Changeup—+1.30xwOBA 0.286
  • 4-Seam Fastball—-0.10xwOBA 0.342
  • Sweeper—+1.10xwOBA 0.270
  • Slider—+2.20xwOBA 0.279

home arsenal — SF

RV/100 2.26
  • 4-Seam Fastball—-0.90xwOBA 0.445
  • Changeup—+8.30xwOBA 0.183

away · SD vs LHP

confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.904
Σ match
3.469
Σ FRV
+16.8
#posbatterxwOBAmatchFRV
12BFernando Tatis Jr.0.3730.435+5.0
2RFDustin Harris0.3280.364+0.5
33BManny Machado0.3350.431+5.7
4CLuis Campusano0.3440.389-3.0
5CFJackson Merrill0.3450.387+9.1
6DHAustin Hays0.2860.338-1.9
7SSXander Bogaerts0.3200.407+4.5
81BJake Cronenworth0.2700.371-2.3
9LFSamad Taylor0.3030.347-0.7

home · SF vs RHP

confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.744
Σ match
2.886
Σ FRV
-4.5
#posbatterxwOBAmatchFRV
1CFDrew Gilbert0.3240.332+3.2
2DHRafael Devers0.3410.339-4.9
31BBryce Eldridge0.3570.388+1.6
42BJonah Cox0.2630.284+1.5
5LFTurner Hill0.3190.326-0.8
6RFJung Hoo Lee0.3170.328-6.0
73BShay Whitcomb0.2540.282+0.5
8CDrew Cavanaugh0.3140.337-1.9
9SSChristian Koss0.2550.269+2.3

defense · SD catcher (Savant FRV)

Luis Campusano
  • FRV-3.0
  • framing-4.5
  • blocking-0.5
  • throwing+2.1

defense · SF catcher (Savant FRV)

Drew Cavanaugh
  • FRV-1.9
  • framing-2.7
  • blocking+0.6
  • throwing+0.2

SD · Michael King

Last outing 2026-09-06 vs NYY · 6.0 IP

MetricPrior gamesLatest (Δ)Last 3
Stuff+9688(-8)95
Location+10198(-3)98
Pitching+9790(-7)91
botStf5153(+2)50
botCmd5346(-8)50
botOvr5145(-7)48
SIERA4.456.07(+1.63)4.64

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-25 → 2026-09-06. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.

Latest botERA 5.62

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-06; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

SF · Cesar Perdomo

Last outing 2026-09-06 vs NYM · 6.0 IP

MetricPrior gamesLatest (Δ)Last 2
Stuff+9085(-5)88
Location+106105(-0)105
Pitching+9398(+5)96
botStf4749(+2)49
botCmd4949(+0)49
botOvr4844(-4)46
SIERA3.273.48(+0.22)3.38

Last 2 outings: 2026-09-01 → 2026-09-06. 2/2 outings have verified ratings.

Latest botERA 5.78

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-06; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

SD · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera
0.40R / inningband [0.33–0.47]
0.094 R/PA · 0.133 R/out · worst: Wandy Peralta (4.45)
SF · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera
0.47R / inningband [0.37–0.57]
0.111 R/PA · 0.157 R/out · worst: Philip Abner (5.72)

SD

PitcherDerivedCardFIPK%BB%Mean IPSV/HD/GFTrend
Mason MillerCLOSERCL1.0248.19.61.0435/0/34stable
Adrian MorejonSETUPSU2.3830.27.41.163/24/6stable
Kyle HartSETUPMR3.3722.97.61.400/8/5stable
Bradgley RodriguezOPENERSU2.2627.46.71.092/14/5stable
Wandy PeraltaOPENERMR3.9615.87.91.170/4/14stable
David MorganMRMR4.2223.413.31.220/2/5stable
Yuki MatsuiMRMR4.2826.413.61.350/9/5ramping down
Griffin CanningSPMR4.7422.810.44.240/1/0ramping down

SF

PitcherDerivedCardFIPK%BB%Mean IPSV/HD/GFTrend
Joel KuhnelSETUPCL5.2813.57.61.017/6/16stable
Dylan SmithMRMR3.4227.710.80.884/7/5stable
Jason FoleyMRMR3.7713.89.21.000/2/0insufficient data
Reiver SanmartinMRMR4.3018.26.81.670/4/1insufficient data
Philip AbnerMRMR5.349.512.21.870/0/1stable
Carson SeymourMRMR6.0516.211.72.171/7/0insufficient data
Trent HarrisunknownMR1.7831.310.4—1/4/0—
Matt WilkinsonunknownMR5.7314.15.6—0/0/0—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

  • xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
  • xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
  • wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
  • Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
  • FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
  • kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
  • K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
  • IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
  • Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

  • AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
  • vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
  • xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
  • xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
  • FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
  • Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
  • Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

  • 🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
  • 🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

  • MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
  • Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
  • Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
  • Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected
Final total
13
7 SD · 6 SF
Projected total
—
Delta
—
actual − projected
Band cover
—

SD

7 R

13H · 2HR · 6BB · 4K · 25LOB

OBPe 0.404 · SLGe 0.538 · K% 8.5

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 6 ER · 8 K · relief 2.0 IP · 4 arms

SF

6 R

8H · 4HR · 0BB · 8K · 2LOB

OBPe 0.235 · SLGe 0.588 · K% 23.5

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 6 ER · 4 K · relief 4.3 IP · 6 arms

SD · standout lines

big nights
  • Fernando Tatis Jr. (RF) · 2-3 | HR, 3 BB, RBIHR
  • Jackson Merrill (CF) · 1-4 | HR, BB, KHR
  • Xander Bogaerts (SS) · 4-5 | 2B, 2 R, SB4 H · 5 TB
tough nights
  • Manny Machado (3B) · 0-4 | BB0-for-4

SF · standout lines

big nights
  • Drew Gilbert (CF) · 2-4 | HR, K, 2 RBIHR
  • Rafael Devers (DH) · 1-4 | HR, K, 2 RBIHR
  • Shay Whitcomb (3B) · 1-3 | HR, RBI, RHR
  • Drew Cavanaugh (C) · 1-3 | HR, RBI, RHR
tough nights
  • Bryce Eldridge (1B) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
  • Turner Hill (LF) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
sources · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant · Baseball Prospectus · Open-Meteo · reference, not picks