Saturday · September 12, 2026·full·gamePk 823170free Saturday
refreshed 322h 16m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Oracle Park
gametime 4:05 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
68°F
humidity 64%
wind
18 mph
out to CF
precip
0%
clear
park
SF
open · HP→CF 91°
wind impact on total
+0.57 R/Gmoderate out
Moderate wind out: +0.57 R/G vs neutral. _Oracle Park — the famous wind park. McCovey Cove wind blows IN HARD from west most days, suppresses HR violently. Calm summer warm games (rare) let ball fly to LF_
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Michael KingRHP · SD
Cesar PerdomoLHP · SF
xERA 2026
4.36
3.14
xwOBA 2026
0.321
0.275
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.029
-0.039
xERA 2025
4.24
—
xwOBA 2025
0.319
—
Outs/TB 25-26
2.32
3.00
FIP 25-26
4.24
3.39
kwERA 25-26
3.86
3.34
K% 25-26
22.1%
22.9%
BB% 25-26
9.3%
5.7%
IP 25+26 combined
241.3
10.0
ERA actual 2026
3.00
0.90
ERA (L4)
0.70
0.90
WHIP (L4)
1.05
0.80
K% (L4)
19.8%
22.9%
BB% (L4)
9.9%
5.7%
IP/gm (L4)
6.42
5.00
L4 window
08/19→09/06 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
09/01→09/06 (2 outs) · 2/2 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
95 (−1)
88 (−2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
4.64 (+0.20)
3.38 (+0.11)
Arsenal RV/100
0.64
2.26
away arsenal — SD
RV/100 0.64
Sinker—-0.10xwOBA 0.391
Changeup—+1.30xwOBA 0.286
4-Seam Fastball—-0.10xwOBA 0.342
Sweeper—+1.10xwOBA 0.270
Slider—+2.20xwOBA 0.279
home arsenal — SF
RV/100 2.26
4-Seam Fastball—-0.90xwOBA 0.445
Changeup—+8.30xwOBA 0.183
away · SD vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.904
Σ match
3.469
Σ FRV
+16.8
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
2B
Fernando Tatis Jr.
0.373
0.435
+5.0
2
RF
Dustin Harris
0.328
0.364
+0.5
3
3B
Manny Machado
0.335
0.431
+5.7
4
C
Luis Campusano
0.344
0.389
-3.0
5
CF
Jackson Merrill
0.345
0.387
+9.1
6
DH
Austin Hays
0.286
0.338
-1.9
7
SS
Xander Bogaerts
0.320
0.407
+4.5
8
1B
Jake Cronenworth
0.270
0.371
-2.3
9
LF
Samad Taylor
0.303
0.347
-0.7
home · SF vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.744
Σ match
2.886
Σ FRV
-4.5
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
CF
Drew Gilbert
0.324
0.332
+3.2
2
DH
Rafael Devers
0.341
0.339
-4.9
3
1B
Bryce Eldridge
0.357
0.388
+1.6
4
2B
Jonah Cox
0.263
0.284
+1.5
5
LF
Turner Hill
0.319
0.326
-0.8
6
RF
Jung Hoo Lee
0.317
0.328
-6.0
7
3B
Shay Whitcomb
0.254
0.282
+0.5
8
C
Drew Cavanaugh
0.314
0.337
-1.9
9
SS
Christian Koss
0.255
0.269
+2.3
defense · SD catcher (Savant FRV)
Luis Campusano
FRV-3.0
framing-4.5
blocking-0.5
throwing+2.1
defense · SF catcher (Savant FRV)
Drew Cavanaugh
FRV-1.9
framing-2.7
blocking+0.6
throwing+0.2
SD · Michael King
Last outing 2026-09-06 vs NYY · 6.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
96
88(-8)
95
Location+
101
98(-3)
98
Pitching+
97
90(-7)
91
botStf
51
53(+2)
50
botCmd
53
46(-8)
50
botOvr
51
45(-7)
48
SIERA
4.45
6.07(+1.63)
4.64
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-25 → 2026-09-06. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 5.62
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-06; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
SF · Cesar Perdomo
Last outing 2026-09-06 vs NYM · 6.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 2
Stuff+
90
85(-5)
88
Location+
106
105(-0)
105
Pitching+
93
98(+5)
96
botStf
47
49(+2)
49
botCmd
49
49(+0)
49
botOvr
48
44(-4)
46
SIERA
3.27
3.48(+0.22)
3.38
Last 2 outings: 2026-09-01 → 2026-09-06. 2/2 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 5.78
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-06; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
0.111 R/PA · 0.157 R/out · worst: Philip Abner (5.72)
SD
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Mason Miller
CLOSER
CL
1.02
48.1
9.6
1.04
35/0/34
stable
Adrian Morejon
SETUP
SU
2.38
30.2
7.4
1.16
3/24/6
stable
Kyle Hart
SETUP
MR
3.37
22.9
7.6
1.40
0/8/5
stable
Bradgley Rodriguez
OPENER
SU
2.26
27.4
6.7
1.09
2/14/5
stable
Wandy Peralta
OPENER
MR
3.96
15.8
7.9
1.17
0/4/14
stable
David Morgan
MR
MR
4.22
23.4
13.3
1.22
0/2/5
stable
Yuki Matsui
MR
MR
4.28
26.4
13.6
1.35
0/9/5
ramping down
Griffin Canning
SP
MR
4.74
22.8
10.4
4.24
0/1/0
ramping down
SF
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Joel Kuhnel
SETUP
CL
5.28
13.5
7.6
1.01
7/6/16
stable
Dylan Smith
MR
MR
3.42
27.7
10.8
0.88
4/7/5
stable
Jason Foley
MR
MR
3.77
13.8
9.2
1.00
0/2/0
insufficient data
Reiver Sanmartin
MR
MR
4.30
18.2
6.8
1.67
0/4/1
insufficient data
Philip Abner
MR
MR
5.34
9.5
12.2
1.87
0/0/1
stable
Carson Seymour
MR
MR
6.05
16.2
11.7
2.17
1/7/0
insufficient data
Trent Harris
unknown
MR
1.78
31.3
10.4
—
1/4/0
—
Matt Wilkinson
unknown
MR
5.73
14.1
5.6
—
0/0/0
—
glossary
Pitcher metrics
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.