Saturday · September 12, 2026·full·gamePk 823009free Saturday
refreshed 319h 21m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Busch Stadium
gametime 7:15 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
89°F
humidity 42%
wind
3 mph
out to RF
precip
1%
clear
park
STL
open · HP→CF 4°
wind impact on total
+0.05 R/Gnone out
Out wind, but too light to move the total.
opener / bulk pattern
CWS: Sean Newcomb opens → bulk: José Urquidy· predicted bulk based on 2/49 prior short outings
both opener + bulk shown side-by-side below — lineup matchup keys to the bulk pitcher (who batters see for most of the game)
openers + bulk pitchers · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Sean NewcombLHP · opener · CWS
José UrquidyRHP · bulk · CWS
Kyle LeahyRHP · STL
xERA 2026
3.90
3.40
4.86
xwOBA 2026
0.305
0.286
0.337
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.035
0.075
-0.012
xERA 2025
3.88
8.62
4.42
xwOBA 2025
0.306
0.429
0.325
Outs/TB 25-26
2.48
1.52
2.07
FIP 25-26
2.98
4.37
3.36
kwERA 25-26
3.68
4.21
3.60
K% 25-26
22.6%
16.4%
22.1%
BB% 25-26
8.2%
6.5%
7.2%
IP 25+26 combined
175.3
31.3
220.0
ERA actual 2026
2.71
5.28
3.41
ERA (L4)
0.00
5.54
3.68
WHIP (L4)
0.60
1.54
1.23
K% (L4)
31.0%
6.7%
31.1%
BB% (L4)
10.3%
8.3%
4.9%
IP/gm (L4)
2.08
3.25
3.67
L4 window
06/20→08/23 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/24→09/08 (4 outs) · 4/4 dates verified
08/18→09/06 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
102 (−3)
97 (−2)
95 (+3)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
4.92 (+0.52)
5.43 (+0.48)
3.37 (−0.60)
Arsenal RV/100
1.23
-1.34
0.12
away arsenal · BULK José Urquidy — CWS
RV/100 -1.34
Changeup—-3.90xwOBA 0.272
4-Seam Fastball—+1.40xwOBA 0.310
Sinker—-1.10xwOBA 0.368
Curveball—-1.80xwOBA 0.234
Sweeper—-0.20xwOBA 0.235
home arsenal — STL
RV/100 0.12
4-Seam Fastball—-1.00xwOBA 0.432
Curveball—-0.10xwOBA 0.294
Slider—+1.90xwOBA 0.328
Changeup—-0.40xwOBA 0.307
Sweeper—-0.50xwOBA 0.311
Sinker—+1.60xwOBA 0.329
away · CWS vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.936
Σ match
3.190
Σ FRV
+11.4
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
LF
Sam Antonacci
0.339
0.370
-8.2
2
C
Kyle Teel
0.312
0.324
-1.6
3
3B
Miguel Vargas
0.382
0.415
-4.7
4
1B
Munetaka Murakami
0.344
0.389
-2.7
5
DH
Andrew Benintendi
0.311
0.349
-1.6
6
CF
Tristan Peters
0.317
0.344
+9.4
7
2B
Chase Meidroth
0.297
0.312
+10.3
8
SS
Colson Montgomery
0.302
0.308
+9.4
9
RF
Braden Montgomery
0.332
0.378
+1.1
home · STL vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.873
Σ match
2.626
Σ FRV
+13.3
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
LF
José Fermín
0.288
0.270
-2.1
2
DH
Iván Herrera
0.331
0.298
-4.5
3
1B
Alec Burleson
0.377
0.353
+4.5
4
RF
Joshua Báez
0.322
0.285
-2.6
5
C
Leo Bernal
0.380
0.334
-0.2
6
3B
Nolan Gorman
0.279
0.250
+1.1
7
2B
Thomas Saggese
0.312
0.293
-0.1
8
SS
Masyn Winn
0.299
0.280
+15.7
9
CF
Nathan Church
0.285
0.262
+1.6
defense · CWS catcher (Savant FRV)
Kyle Teel
FRV-1.6
framing-1.5
blocking-1.1
throwing+0.9
defense · STL catcher (Savant FRV)
Leo Bernal
FRV-0.2
framing+0.4
blocking+0.0
throwing+0.1
CWS · José Urquidy
Last outing 2026-09-08 vs Pittsburgh Pirates · 4.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
99
95(-4)
97
Location+
108
117(+10)
110
Pitching+
104
104(-0)
105
botStf
48
46(-2)
48
botCmd
61
67(+6)
58
botOvr
57
61(+4)
53
SIERA
4.95
5.94(+0.99)
5.43
Last 3 outings: 2026-08-30 → 2026-09-08. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 2.90
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-08; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
STL · Kyle Leahy
Last outing 2026-09-06 vs COL · 2.2 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
93
93(+1)
95
Location+
106
122(+17)
105
Pitching+
101
111(+10)
102
botStf
53
52(-1)
54
botCmd
53
63(+10)
52
botOvr
52
59(+7)
51
SIERA
3.98
1.48(-2.50)
3.37
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-23 → 2026-09-06. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.15
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-06; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
0.106 R/PA · 0.150 R/out · worst: Gordon Graceffo (4.55)
CWS
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Sean Newcomb
SETUP
MR
2.92
21.8
8.6
1.51
4/11/6
ramping up
Grant Taylor
OPENER
CL
2.63
32.4
8.7
1.33
8/10/11
stable
Bryan Hudson
OPENER
CL
3.11
22.4
6.7
0.98
7/9/8
stable
Chris Murphy
OPENER
MR
3.84
22.4
11.2
1.05
1/1/6
stable
Jordan Hicks
MR
MR
3.73
28.8
14.6
0.91
1/8/6
stable
Trevor Richards
MR
MR
4.03
22.3
7.7
1.46
1/1/16
stable
Tyler Schweitzer
MR
MR
4.14
11.7
7.8
1.86
1/2/6
ramping up
Hagen Smith
unknown
SU
2.59
37.1
14.3
—
0/1/0
—
STL
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Riley O'Brien
CLOSER
CL
3.62
22.8
10.2
0.99
36/1/33
stable
Justin Bruihl
SETUP
MR
3.94
15.9
8.4
1.11
0/10/5
ramping up
Ryne Stanek
SETUP
SU
4.61
24.5
11.6
0.89
2/25/5
stable
George Soriano
SETUP
MR
4.79
22.8
11.0
0.98
3/21/7
stable
Brycen Mautz
BULK
MR
6.54
22.9
14.6
3.00
0/0/1
insufficient data
Gordon Graceffo
MR
SU
3.97
18.3
11.2
1.18
1/6/10
stable
Luis Gastelum
MR
MR
4.33
29.7
8.6
1.00
0/1/1
stable
Cooper Hjerpe
unknown
LR
0.09
50.0
0.0
—
0/0/0
—
Cade Winquest
unknown
MR
3.09
20.7
10.3
—
0/1/0
—
glossary
Pitcher metrics
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.