Saturday · September 12, 2026·full·gamePk 822927free Saturday
refreshed 319h 22m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · George M. Steinbrenner Field
gametime 6:10 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
86°F
humidity 73%
wind
4 mph
cross RF to LF
precip
24%
partly cloudy
park
TB
open · HP→CF 45°
wind impact on total
-0.05 R/Gnone cross
Cross wind, but too light to move the total.
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Peter LambertRHP · HOU
Ian SeymourLHP · TB
xERA 2026
3.66
3.63
xwOBA 2026
0.296
0.295
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.001
0.018
xERA 2025
—
3.93
xwOBA 2025
—
0.308
Outs/TB 25-26
2.37
1.98
FIP 25-26
3.90
3.80
kwERA 25-26
3.77
2.89
K% 25-26
23.0%
28.0%
BB% 25-26
9.4%
7.1%
IP 25+26 combined
139.7
173.3
ERA actual 2026
3.67
4.33
ERA (L4)
6.86
5.31
WHIP (L4)
1.67
1.28
K% (L4)
19.8%
33.0%
BB% (L4)
9.9%
3.4%
IP/gm (L4)
5.25
5.08
L4 window
08/20→09/06 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/15→09/06 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
92 (−0)
99 (−4)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
4.98 (+0.47)
3.15 (−0.93)
Arsenal RV/100
0.12
0.22
away arsenal — HOU
RV/100 0.12
4-Seam Fastball—-0.50xwOBA 0.331
Changeup—+0.10xwOBA 0.248
Slider—+0.50xwOBA 0.279
Cutter—+0.30xwOBA 0.344
Sinker—+0.60xwOBA 0.290
Sweeper—+0.30xwOBA 0.262
Slurve—+1.50xwOBA 0.342
home arsenal — TB
RV/100 0.22
Changeup—+0.60xwOBA 0.251
4-Seam Fastball—-0.10xwOBA 0.312
Sweeper—+0.00xwOBA 0.286
Sinker—+0.40xwOBA 0.379
Slider—+0.10xwOBA 0.264
away · HOU vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.661
Σ match
2.465
Σ FRV
-3.9
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
SS
Jeremy Peña
0.323
0.301
-3.3
2
3B
Isaac Paredes
0.322
0.298
+0.8
3
2B
Jose Altuve
0.273
0.251
-9.7
4
DH
Yainer Diaz
0.302
0.278
-4.7
5
CF
Daulton Varsho
0.290
0.284
+4.2
6
1B
Christian Walker
0.304
0.281
+5.0
7
RF
Cam Smith
0.324
0.285
+2.2
8
LF
Taylor Trammell
0.286
0.263
-1.6
9
C
Christian Vázquez
0.237
0.223
+3.3
home · TB vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.838
Σ match
2.740
Σ FRV
+8.0
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
DH
Yandy Díaz
0.353
0.329
—
2
1B
Jonathan Aranda
0.346
0.330
-0.5
3
3B
Junior Caminero
0.364
0.356
-8.8
4
C
Liam Hicks
0.317
0.306
+1.6
5
RF
Victor Mesa Jr.
0.329
0.321
+9.1
6
LF
Chandler Simpson
0.264
0.253
+2.8
7
CF
Cedric Mullins
0.265
0.254
+9.3
8
2B
Richie Palacios
0.307
0.309
-4.5
9
SS
Jorge Mateo
0.293
0.282
-1.0
defense · HOU catcher (Savant FRV)
Christian Vázquez
FRV+3.3
framing+5.8
blocking-1.4
throwing-1.2
defense · TB catcher (Savant FRV)
Liam Hicks
FRV+1.6
framing-0.3
blocking-0.5
throwing+1.5
HOU · Peter Lambert
Last outing 2026-09-06 vs AZ · 7.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
92
97(+5)
92
Location+
100
97(-3)
96
Pitching+
93
90(-3)
88
botStf
47
47(+1)
46
botCmd
55
59(+4)
52
botOvr
51
54(+3)
48
SIERA
4.51
4.37(-0.14)
4.98
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-26 → 2026-09-06. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.97
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-06; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
TB · Ian Seymour
Last outing 2026-09-06 vs TEX · 3.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
103
96(-7)
99
Location+
101
101(-0)
105
Pitching+
102
95(-7)
101
botStf
51
41(-10)
45
botCmd
55
49(-6)
54
botOvr
53
42(-11)
48
SIERA
4.07
5.57(+1.50)
3.15
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-20 → 2026-09-06. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 6.15
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-06; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
0.092 R/PA · 0.131 R/out · worst: Steven Matz (4.26)
HOU
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Josh Hader
CLOSER
CL
1.59
35.8
7.3
0.91
25/0/14
stable
Bryan Abreu
CLOSER
SU
4.58
30.3
15.9
0.92
8/14/21
stable
Enyel De Los Santos
SETUP
MR
3.64
22.2
6.5
1.07
5/10/13
stable
AJ Blubaugh
SETUP
SU
4.14
24.4
9.8
1.68
1/10/6
ramping up
Bryan King
SETUP
MR
4.74
17.5
7.6
1.07
6/12/11
stable
Miguel Ullola
MR
MR
4.22
33.3
3.3
2.00
0/0/1
insufficient data
Bennett Sousa
MOP_UP
MR
4.41
23.2
13.4
0.67
0/9/2
stable
Tatsuya Imai
SP
LR
4.43
28.0
15.4
3.86
0/0/0
ramping down
TB
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Bryan Baker
CLOSER
CL
3.08
27.2
9.4
0.96
39/2/28
stable
Kevin Kelly
SETUP
SU
3.27
21.0
4.3
1.10
4/30/9
stable
Tyler Wells
SETUP
SU
3.39
25.6
6.2
1.26
6/15/13
stable
Casey Legumina
OPENER
MR
3.54
17.7
6.1
1.25
0/7/7
stable
Cole Sulser
OPENER
MR
3.86
23.4
7.2
1.11
2/11/9
stable
Steven Matz
SWING
LR
5.15
17.1
7.6
3.53
1/1/1
ramping down
Cam Booser
MR
MR
3.18
29.6
4.4
1.11
0/10/5
stable
Ty Johnson
unknown
MR
3.09
37.5
25.0
—
0/0/0
—
glossary
Pitcher metrics
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.