Saturday · September 12, 2026·full·gamePk 822768free Saturday
refreshed 324h 15m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Rogers Centre
gametime 3:07 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
77°F
humidity 57%
wind
7 mph
cross LF to RF
precip
0%
overcast
park
TOR
retractable · HP→CF 0°
wind impact on total
neutralnone cross
Cross wind, but too light to move the total.
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Kyle BradishRHP · BAL
Spencer MilesRHP · TOR
xERA 2026
4.27
2.95
xwOBA 2026
0.318
0.267
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
0.014
-0.015
xERA 2025
3.09
—
xwOBA 2025
0.275
—
Outs/TB 25-26
2.05
2.71
FIP 25-26
3.89
2.74
kwERA 25-26
3.69
3.34
K% 25-26
24.2%
23.1%
BB% 25-26
10.0%
6.0%
IP 25+26 combined
184.0
87.7
ERA actual 2026
3.91
2.77
ERA (L4)
5.68
0.00
WHIP (L4)
1.84
0.38
K% (L4)
17.8%
38.9%
BB% (L4)
11.1%
5.6%
IP/gm (L4)
4.75
1.33
L4 window
08/20→09/06 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/30→09/08 (4 outs) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
98 (−2)
94 (−6)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
5.83 (+1.21)
4.67 (+1.25)
Arsenal RV/100
-0.21
1.55
away arsenal — BAL
RV/100 -0.21
Sinker—+0.50xwOBA 0.312
Slider—-1.30xwOBA 0.327
Curveball—-0.50xwOBA 0.263
4-Seam Fastball—+0.20xwOBA 0.382
home arsenal — TOR
RV/100 1.55
Sinker—+3.20xwOBA 0.290
Curveball—+1.00xwOBA 0.280
Slider—-0.20xwOBA 0.230
4-Seam Fastball—-0.50xwOBA 0.195
away · BAL vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.850
Σ match
2.469
Σ FRV
+0.4
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
LF
Dylan Beavers
0.302
0.265
-6.8
2
1B
Pete Alonso
0.392
0.324
-3.4
3
2B
Jackson Holliday
0.299
0.237
-2.9
4
DH
Coby Mayo
0.330
0.280
-1.9
5
SS
Gunnar Henderson
0.316
0.271
+1.3
6
3B
Christian Encarnacion-Strand
0.347
0.284
+2.2
7
RF
Heston Kjerstad
0.284
0.280
-0.1
8
CF
Colton Cowser
0.318
0.282
+7.3
9
C
Carlos Narváez
0.262
0.247
+4.7
home · TOR vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.416
Σ match
2.756
Σ FRV
+32.7
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
CF
Brett Bateman
0.304
0.319
+3.2
2
DH
George Springer
0.306
0.308
-0.3
3
1B
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
0.332
0.338
+5.4
4
C
Alejandro Kirk
0.304
0.310
+9.6
5
RF
Nathan Lukes
0.287
0.289
+6.3
6
3B
Kazuma Okamoto
0.325
0.332
-2.8
7
2B
Josh Smith
0.283
0.293
-3.7
8
SS
Andrés Giménez
0.275
0.282
+15.1
9
LF
Rudy Martin Jr.
—
0.285
—
defense · BAL catcher (Savant FRV)
Carlos Narváez
FRV+4.7
framing+2.2
blocking+2.9
throwing-0.5
defense · TOR catcher (Savant FRV)
Alejandro Kirk
FRV+9.6
framing+7.0
blocking+3.3
throwing-0.7
BAL · Kyle Bradish
Last outing 2026-09-06 vs BOS · 4.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
100
99(-1)
98
Location+
98
87(-11)
95
Pitching+
100
82(-18)
91
botStf
53
51(-2)
51
botCmd
51
51(+0)
51
botOvr
51
50(-2)
50
SIERA
4.62
6.71(+2.09)
5.83
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-26 → 2026-09-06. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.82
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-06; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
TOR · Spencer Miles
Last outing 2026-09-08 vs ATH · 2.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
100
102(+2)
94
Location+
109
119(+10)
117
Pitching+
107
109(+2)
111
botStf
52
51(-2)
50
botCmd
58
68(+10)
63
botOvr
56
69(+13)
60
SIERA
3.43
0.50(-2.93)
4.67
Last 3 starts: 2026-07-07 → 2026-09-01. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 1.48
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-08; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
BAL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera
0.39R / inningband [0.34–0.44]
0.092 R/PA · 0.130 R/out · worst: Luis De León (4.60)
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.