Saturday · September 12, 2026·full·gamePk 822685free Saturday
refreshed 322h 17m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Nationals Park
gametime 4:05 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
83°F
humidity 72%
wind
7 mph
cross LF to RF
precip
4%
overcast
park
WSH
open · HP→CF 30°
wind impact on total
-0.01 R/Gnone cross
Cross wind, but too light to move the total.
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Walbert UreñaRHP · LAA
Andrew AlvarezLHP · WSH
xERA 2026
3.40
4.36
xwOBA 2026
0.286
0.321
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.012
-0.021
xERA 2025
—
2.87
xwOBA 2025
—
0.265
Outs/TB 25-26
2.86
2.55
FIP 25-26
3.76
3.33
kwERA 25-26
4.12
4.01
K% 25-26
22.5%
22.2%
BB% 25-26
11.8%
10.6%
IP 25+26 combined
131.3
118.3
ERA actual 2026
2.74
3.60
ERA (L4)
3.04
3.15
WHIP (L4)
1.01
1.25
K% (L4)
23.7%
26.2%
BB% (L4)
8.6%
11.9%
IP/gm (L4)
5.92
5.00
L4 window
08/19→09/06 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/20→09/06 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
100 (−1)
96 (−0)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
4.25 (−0.37)
3.76 (−0.30)
Arsenal RV/100
0.69
0.36
away arsenal — LAA
RV/100 0.69
Changeup—+2.30xwOBA 0.222
Sinker—+0.00xwOBA 0.353
4-Seam Fastball—-1.00xwOBA 0.320
Sweeper—+0.80xwOBA 0.239
home arsenal — WSH
RV/100 0.36
Curveball—+1.10xwOBA 0.222
4-Seam Fastball—-0.40xwOBA 0.399
Slider—-0.50xwOBA 0.364
Sinker—+1.00xwOBA 0.391
Changeup—+1.80xwOBA 0.197
away · LAA vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.565
Σ match
2.697
Σ FRV
-0.4
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
SS
Zach Neto
0.310
0.325
-1.3
2
CF
Mike Trout
0.377
0.369
-2.8
3
LF
Jose Siri
0.305
0.323
+1.9
4
1B
Vaughn Grissom
0.311
0.321
-4.5
5
2B
Christian Moore
0.249
0.278
-1.7
6
DH
Oswald Peraza
0.273
0.277
+0.9
7
3B
Denzer Guzman
0.269
0.271
+1.0
8
RF
Kyren Paris
0.230
0.286
-1.2
9
C
Tyler Heineman
0.241
0.248
+7.4
home · WSH vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.903
Σ match
2.677
Σ FRV
-7.3
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
DH
James Wood
0.415
0.391
-8.5
2
1B
Abimelec Ortiz
0.285
0.267
-0.4
3
RF
Dylan Crews
0.310
0.274
+1.1
4
SS
CJ Abrams
0.327
0.309
-12.3
5
3B
Brady House
0.338
0.312
-2.3
6
LF
Daylen Lile
0.326
0.314
+2.7
7
C
Keibert Ruiz
0.289
0.269
+1.1
8
2B
Jorbit Vivas
0.298
0.262
+2.7
9
CF
Jacob Young
0.315
0.280
+8.5
defense · LAA catcher (Savant FRV)
Tyler Heineman
FRV+7.4
framing+5.5
blocking-0.1
throwing+2.1
defense · WSH catcher (Savant FRV)
Keibert Ruiz
FRV+1.1
framing+2.9
blocking+0.1
throwing-1.9
LAA · Walbert Ureña
Last outing 2026-09-06 vs PIT · 8.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
101
110(+9)
100
Location+
102
97(-5)
102
Pitching+
105
105(+0)
103
botStf
53
53(-1)
52
botCmd
52
57(+5)
54
botOvr
53
56(+3)
54
SIERA
4.62
3.39(-1.23)
4.25
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-25 → 2026-09-06. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.70
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-06; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
WSH · Andrew Alvarez
Last outing 2026-09-06 vs LAD · 4.1 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
96
92(-4)
96
Location+
99
111(+11)
103
Pitching+
100
112(+12)
104
botStf
56
58(+2)
57
botCmd
49
53(+4)
49
botOvr
51
55(+4)
53
SIERA
4.06
3.92(-0.13)
3.76
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-25 → 2026-09-06. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.81
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-06; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
LAA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.38R / inningband [0.31–0.45]
0.090 R/PA · 0.127 R/out · worst: Luke Murphy (4.24)
WSH · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)10 arms · kwera
0.45R / inningband [0.39–0.51]
0.105 R/PA · 0.149 R/out · worst: Richard Lovelady (4.91)
LAA
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Samy Natera Jr.
MR
SU
1.89
36.6
9.9
1.16
3/5/3
stable
Tayler Saucedo
MR
MR
2.37
29.9
6.0
0.56
0/7/0
stable
José Fermin
MR
MR
3.86
27.3
10.5
1.11
1/7/7
stable
Ryan Watson
MR
SU
4.02
20.0
7.6
1.61
2/7/21
stable
Mitch Farris
MR
LR
4.82
24.7
11.4
2.12
1/1/6
stable
Ben Joyce
unknown
CL
2.48
31.8
13.6
—
4/2/0
—
Blake Weiman
unknown
MR
2.74
19.6
2.0
—
0/2/0
—
Luke Murphy
unknown
MR
3.96
24.2
14.5
—
0/4/0
—
Sammy Peralta
unknown
MR
5.51
28.3
8.3
—
0/1/0
—
WSH
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Brad Lord
SETUP
MR
4.24
21.1
9.1
2.15
1/6/4
stable
Richard Lovelady
OPENER
SU
5.40
18.5
14.4
0.92
4/9/11
ramping down
Eddy Yean
MR
MR
3.82
15.6
4.4
2.00
0/1/0
insufficient data
Will Dion
MR
SU
4.04
28.7
7.5
1.79
0/0/6
ramping down
Riley Cornelio
MR
MR
4.46
23.3
18.1
2.04
0/0/2
ramping down
Yovanny Cruz
MR
MR
4.54
23.4
14.9
1.44
0/2/1
insufficient data
Erik Tolman
unknown
MR
2.45
23.7
10.5
—
2/1/0
—
Jared Simpson
unknown
LR
3.34
28.6
21.4
—
0/0/0
—
Jack Sinclair
unknown
MR
5.09
23.1
15.4
—
0/0/0
—
Luis Perales
unknown
SU
8.66
24.3
16.2
—
0/0/0
—
glossary
Pitcher metrics
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.