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today's slate

TEX @ AZ

Friday · September 11, 2026·full·gamePk 825036free Saturday

refreshed 342h 36m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Chase Field

gametime 9:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

99°F

humidity 27%

wind

6 mph

cross RF to LF

precip

clear

park

retractable · HP→CF 23°

wind impact on total

neutralnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	MacKenzie GoreLHP · TEX	Merrill KellyRHP · AZ
xERA 2026	3.92	6.72
xwOBA 2026	0.306	0.387
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.011	-0.032
xERA 2025	4.33	4.16
xwOBA 2025	0.322	0.316
Outs/TB 25-26	1.96	1.88
FIP 25-26	3.74	4.53
kwERA 25-26	3.39	4.05
K% 25-26	26.0%	19.3%
BB% 25-26	9.3%	8.0%
IP 25+26 combined	317.3	331.7
ERA actual 2026	4.51	5.06
ERA (L4)	6.62	7.84
WHIP (L4)	2.32	1.69
K% (L4)	15.2%	12.5%
BB% (L4)	14.1%	10.4%
IP/gm (L4)	4.42	5.17
L4 window	08/15→09/06 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified	08/12→09/04 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
Arsenal RV/100	0.27	-0.76

away arsenal — TEX

RV/100 0.27

4-Seam Fastball—+0.90xwOBA 0.309
Curveball—-1.20xwOBA 0.323
Changeup—+0.80xwOBA 0.215
Slider—+1.00xwOBA 0.263
Cutter—-1.70xwOBA 0.409
Sinker—-0.50xwOBA 0.365

home arsenal — AZ

RV/100 -0.76

Changeup—-0.40xwOBA 0.360
4-Seam Fastball—-1.30xwOBA 0.474
Cutter—-2.10xwOBA 0.410
Curveball—+0.90xwOBA 0.322
Slider—-0.60xwOBA 0.309
Sinker—-0.60xwOBA 0.381

away · TEX vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.776

Σ match

3.457

Σ FRV

+17.0

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Joc Pederson	0.343	0.422	-2.2
2	SS	Corey Seager	0.352	0.448	-1.3
3	3B	Ezequiel Duran	0.305	0.374	+14.0
4	RF	Brandon Nimmo	0.348	0.424	-5.1
5	LF	Wyatt Langford	0.315	0.389	+2.9
6	CF	Evan Carter	0.278	0.343	+7.3
7	1B	Jake Burger	0.320	0.409	+4.5
8	2B	Nicky Lopez	0.260	0.319	+0.9
9	C	Danny Jansen	0.255	0.329	-3.9

home · AZ vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.846

Σ match

2.830

Σ FRV

+36.5

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	1B	Ildemaro Vargas	0.299	0.294	+3.3
2	2B	Ketel Marte	0.348	0.349	+3.9
3	C	Gabriel Moreno	0.363	0.348	+7.3
4	SS	Geraldo Perdomo	0.326	0.319	+11.0
5	RF	Corbin Carroll	0.343	0.336	+4.3
6	3B	Nolan Arenado	0.291	0.301	+3.2
7	DH	Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	0.272	0.271	-2.0
8	CF	Jordan Lawlar	0.302	0.300	+1.6
9	LF	Ryan Waldschmidt	0.302	0.313	+3.9

defense · TEX catcher (Savant FRV)

Danny Jansen

FRV-3.9
framing-4.6
blocking+1.5
throwing-0.8

defense · AZ catcher (Savant FRV)

Gabriel Moreno

FRV+7.3
framing+4.2
blocking+1.3
throwing+1.8

TEX · MacKenzie Gore

Last outing 2026-09-06 vs TB · 3.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-26 → 2026-09-06. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-01: Stuff+ 96 · Location+ 99 · Pitching+ 93 · botStf 48 · botCmd 51 · botOvr 50 · SIERA 5.10

2026-08-26: Stuff+ 84 · Location+ 98 · Pitching+ 89 · botStf 49 · botCmd 47 · botOvr 47 · SIERA 6.25

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-06; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

AZ · Merrill Kelly

Last outing 2026-09-04 vs HOU · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-18 → 2026-09-04. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-08-24: Stuff+ 88 · Location+ 93 · Pitching+ 91 · botStf 49 · botCmd 50 · botOvr 52 · SIERA 5.40

2026-08-18: Stuff+ 93 · Location+ 96 · Pitching+ 91 · botStf 46 · botCmd 54 · botOvr 50 · SIERA 7.38

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-04; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

TEX · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.43R / inningband [0.38–0.47]

0.101 R/PA · 0.143 R/out · worst: Robert Garcia (4.80)

AZ · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.42R / inningband [0.37–0.46]

0.099 R/PA · 0.140 R/out · worst: Derek Law (4.48)

TEX

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Jacob Latz	CLOSER	CL	2.65	29.7	8.5	1.28	28/3/26	stable
Jakob Junis	SETUP	SU	3.70	16.8	5.8	1.12	6/17/9	stable
Chase Silseth	SETUP	MR	4.01	26.1	14.1	0.85	0/15/7	stable
Tyler Alexander	OPENER	MR	2.78	20.4	6.5	0.95	4/12/11	stable
Robert Garcia	MR	SU	3.39	22.5	17.5	0.89	0/2/1	stable
Adam Macko	MR	MR	4.04	22.9	9.2	1.04	0/5/2	stable
Robby Ahlstrom	MR	MR	5.05	21.2	8.1	0.82	0/6/3	stable
Trevor Williams	unknown	MR	3.99	27.1	9.4	—	0/1/0	—
Jordan Montgomery	unknown	LR	4.96	19.7	6.1	—	0/0/0	—

AZ

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Brandyn Garcia	SETUP	CL	2.28	32.3	6.1	0.83	5/16/6	stable
Juan Morillo	SETUP	CL	2.75	28.3	8.9	0.92	3/18/9	stable
Jonathan Loáisiga	SETUP	MR	2.87	19.0	4.8	0.93	1/10/11	stable
Kevin Ginkel	SETUP	SU	3.37	24.9	6.5	0.93	3/11/5	stable
Taylor Clarke	SETUP	MR	3.74	15.9	4.8	1.00	0/13/6	stable
Dennis Santana	SETUP	MR	5.15	21.4	10.2	0.95	3/5/22	stable
Derek Law	unknown	LR	3.09	11.5	3.8	—	0/0/0	—
Justin Martinez	unknown	MR	3.39	28.6	17.9	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

1 TEX · 9 AZ

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

TEX

1 R

5H · 0HR · 4BB · 8K · 19LOB

OBPe 0.297 · SLGe 0.200 · K% 21.6

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 9 ER · 3 K · relief 4.0 IP · 5 arms

AZ

9 R

11H · 2HR · 5BB · 3K · 15LOB

OBPe 0.415 · SLGe 0.629 · K% 7.3

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 1 ER · 8 K · relief 4.7 IP · 5 arms

TEX · standout lines

tough nights

Corey Seager (SS) · 0-40-for-4
Evan Carter (CF) · 0-3 | BB, 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K
Jake Burger (1B) · 0-3 | BB, 2 K, R0-for-3 · 2 K

AZ · standout lines

big nights

Ketel Marte (2B) · 2-5 | 2 2B, 3 RBI, 2 R4 TB
Corbin Carroll (RF) · 1-4 | HR, K, 2 RBIHR
Nolan Arenado (3B) · 2-3 | HR, 2B, BBHR

tough nights

Geraldo Perdomo (SS) · 0-4 | BB0-for-4