Baseball Daily

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today's slate

SEA @ ATH

Friday · September 11, 2026·full·gamePk 824954free Saturday

refreshed 342h 42m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Sutter Health Park

gametime 9:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

80°F

humidity 41%

wind

8 mph

out to CF

precip

clear

park

ATH

open · HP→CF 45°

wind impact on total

+0.30 R/Gmoderate out

Moderate wind out: +0.30 R/G vs neutral. _Sutter Health Park (Sacramento) — open bowl, delta breeze in afternoon_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	George KirbyRHP · SEA	Jeffrey SpringsLHP · ATH
xERA 2026	4.04	4.82
xwOBA 2026	0.310	0.336
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.026	0.029
xERA 2025	3.88	4.30
xwOBA 2025	0.306	0.321
Outs/TB 25-26	1.85	1.70
FIP 25-26	3.61	5.26
kwERA 25-26	3.34	4.13
K% 25-26	22.7%	18.8%
BB% 25-26	5.5%	8.2%
IP 25+26 combined	285.3	301.0
ERA actual 2026	4.18	6.02
ERA (L4)	5.25	5.32
WHIP (L4)	1.46	1.27
K% (L4)	17.3%	17.2%
BB% (L4)	6.7%	8.6%
IP/gm (L4)	6.00	5.50
L4 window	08/14→09/05 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified	08/19→09/05 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
Arsenal RV/100	-0.28	-1.32

away arsenal — SEA

RV/100 -0.28

4-Seam Fastball—+0.40xwOBA 0.323
Sweeper—-0.20xwOBA 0.286
Sinker—+0.30xwOBA 0.287
Curveball—-2.20xwOBA 0.313
Changeup—-2.10xwOBA 0.374
Cutter—+1.20xwOBA 0.398
Split-Finger—-4.50xwOBA 0.368

home arsenal — ATH

RV/100 -1.32

4-Seam Fastball—-1.50xwOBA 0.357
Changeup—-0.80xwOBA 0.267
Slider—-1.50xwOBA 0.383
Sweeper—-2.20xwOBA 0.409
Cutter—+0.30xwOBA 0.221

away · SEA vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.881

Σ match

3.111

Σ FRV

-27.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	J.P. Crawford	0.323	0.352	-7.6
2	LF	Randy Arozarena	0.347	0.365	-6.4
3	RF	Dominic Canzone	0.349	0.391	+0.3
4	C	Cal Raleigh	0.312	0.322	-3.8
5	CF	Julio Rodríguez	0.335	0.373	-0.1
6	1B	Josh Naylor	0.312	0.340	+2.9
7	DH	Taylor Ward	0.335	0.357	-1.6
8	2B	Cole Young	0.315	0.331	-3.4
9	3B	Weston Wilson	0.253	0.279	-8.3

home · ATH vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.773

Σ match

2.772

Σ FRV

-33.8

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Henry Bolte	0.318	0.315	+5.1
2	2B	Jeff McNeil	0.306	0.318	-1.7
3	3B	Zack Gelof	0.308	0.304	-0.5
4	RF	Lawrence Butler	0.315	0.306	-10.9
5	DH	Max Muncy	0.293	0.293	-4.8
6	SS	Donovan Walton	0.339	0.344	-6.1
7	1B	Tommy White	0.299	0.296	-3.2
8	LF	Carlos Cortes	0.305	0.307	-6.0
9	C	Jonah Heim	0.290	0.288	-5.7

defense · SEA catcher (Savant FRV)

Cal Raleigh

FRV-3.8
framing-3.8
blocking+2.7
throwing-2.7

defense · ATH catcher (Savant FRV)

Jonah Heim

FRV-5.7
framing-1.1
blocking-2.1
throwing-1.4

SEA · George Kirby

Last outing 2026-09-05 vs ATH · 6.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-25 → 2026-09-05. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-08-31: Stuff+ 102 · Location+ 122 · Pitching+ 124 · botStf 56 · botCmd 63 · botOvr 65 · SIERA 6.23

2026-08-25: Stuff+ 105 · Location+ 126 · Pitching+ 128 · botStf 56 · botCmd 64 · botOvr 65 · SIERA 2.71

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-05; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

ATH · Jeffrey Springs

Last outing 2026-09-05 vs SEA · 7.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-24 → 2026-09-05. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-08-30: Stuff+ 100 · Location+ 113 · Pitching+ 105 · botStf 47 · botCmd 59 · botOvr 58 · SIERA 3.01

2026-08-24: Stuff+ 96 · Location+ 106 · Pitching+ 103 · botStf 48 · botCmd 56 · botOvr 56 · SIERA 5.35

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

SEA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.43R / inningband [0.38–0.47]

0.100 R/PA · 0.142 R/out · worst: Hoby Milner (4.50)

ATH · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.44R / inningband [0.38–0.51]

0.104 R/PA · 0.148 R/out · worst: Geoff Hartlieb (5.13)

SEA

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Andrés Muñoz	CLOSER	CL	2.96	37.6	10.2	0.93	27/0/29	stable
José A. Ferrer	SETUP	SU	4.00	18.1	6.8	0.89	3/13/7	stable
Gabe Speier	SETUP	MR	4.20	22.4	8.2	0.82	1/20/5	stable
Eduard Bazardo	SETUP	MR	4.49	23.3	8.0	0.94	0/26/2	stable
Hoby Milner	SETUP	MR	4.64	13.1	5.6	0.94	1/6/7	stable
Seranthony Domínguez	SETUP	MR	5.00	25.2	13.5	0.89	12/7/18	stable
Cooper Criswell	MR	LR	3.68	18.7	7.2	1.18	1/3/12	stable
Michael Rucker	MR	MR	4.11	26.9	8.1	1.05	0/1/6	stable
Carlos Vargas	unknown	MR	3.28	23.3	4.7	—	0/0/0	—

ATH

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Luis Medina	SETUP	SU	3.65	29.1	12.1	1.38	0/12/10	stable
Hogan Harris	SETUP	CL	3.99	29.1	13.7	0.93	15/13/13	stable
Geoff Hartlieb	MR	MR	4.21	13.6	11.4	2.13	0/2/3	ramping down
Elvis Alvarado	MR	CL	4.45	28.6	11.6	1.08	6/9/11	stable
Seth Johnson	MR	MR	4.53	26.8	15.2	1.13	0/0/4	stable
Chris Roycroft	MR	MR	6.56	14.2	9.0	1.28	1/1/6	ramping up
Yunior Tur	MR	MR	9.72	21.3	12.8	2.00	0/0/0	insufficient data
Scott Blewett	unknown	MR	2.21	22.2	7.7	—	0/2/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

5 SEA · 6 ATH

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

SEA

5 R

10H · 1HR · 3BB · 4K · 21LOB

OBPe 0.302 · SLGe 0.425 · K% 9.3

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 5 ER · 6 K · relief 3.0 IP · 5 arms

ATH

6 R

14H · 2HR · 2BB · 6K · 21LOB

OBPe 0.381 · SLGe 0.550 · K% 14.3

Their pitching

10.0 IP · 3 ER · 4 K · relief 5.0 IP · 6 arms

SEA · standout lines

big nights

Dominic Canzone (RF) · 2-5 | 3B, K4 TB
Lazaro Montes (DH) · 1-3 | HR, 2 RBI, RHR

tough nights

Cal Raleigh (C) · 0-4 | BB, RBI0-for-4

ATH · standout lines

big nights

Lawrence Butler (RF) · 3-5 | HR, 2B, 2 RBIHR · 3 H · 7 TB
Donovan Walton (2B) · 3-5 | HR, 2 RBI, RHR · 3 H