Friday · September 11, 2026·full·gamePk 824873free Saturday
refreshed 344h 16m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Truist Park
gametime 7:15 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
76°F
humidity 92%
wind
13 mph
out to CF
precip
52%
violent showers
park
ATL
open · HP→CF 63°
wind impact on total
+0.38 R/Gmoderate out
Moderate wind out: +0.38 R/G vs neutral. _Truist's open bowl + foul-territory small footprint — wind out to LF plays significantly_
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Aaron NolaRHP · PHI
Chris SaleLHP · ATL
xERA 2026
3.95
3.06
xwOBA 2026
0.307
0.272
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
0.038
-0.010
xERA 2025
4.13
2.84
xwOBA 2025
0.315
0.264
Outs/TB 25-26
1.60
2.52
FIP 25-26
4.66
2.44
kwERA 25-26
3.39
2.29
K% 25-26
24.3%
31.4%
BB% 25-26
7.5%
5.5%
IP 25+26 combined
249.3
275.7
ERA actual 2026
4.76
2.10
ERA (L4)
1.80
1.67
WHIP (L4)
0.92
0.93
K% (L4)
25.0%
30.8%
BB% (L4)
6.2%
0.9%
IP/gm (L4)
6.25
6.75
L4 window
08/19→09/06 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/14→09/04 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
105 (+1)
118 (−0)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
4.15 (+0.16)
2.61 (−0.25)
Arsenal RV/100
-0.59
1.25
away arsenal — PHI
RV/100 -0.59
Curveball—+1.20xwOBA 0.222
4-Seam Fastball—-1.90xwOBA 0.390
Sinker—-2.60xwOBA 0.376
Changeup—+1.00xwOBA 0.294
Cutter—-2.80xwOBA 0.344
home arsenal — ATL
RV/100 1.25
4-Seam Fastball—+1.00xwOBA 0.303
Slider—+1.30xwOBA 0.220
Changeup—+1.40xwOBA 0.331
Sinker—+2.00xwOBA 0.302
away · PHI vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.897
Σ match
2.580
Σ FRV
-9.3
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
DH
Kyle Schwarber
0.368
0.312
-0.6
2
SS
Trea Turner
0.293
0.260
-7.7
3
RF
Bryce Harper
0.389
0.361
-11.4
4
2B
Luis Arraez
0.307
0.262
+9.8
5
1B
Alec Bohm
0.322
0.282
-5.3
6
3B
Edmundo Sosa
0.330
0.309
+1.4
7
LF
Bryan De La Cruz
0.282
0.250
+1.0
8
C
J.T. Realmuto
0.319
0.280
+1.0
9
CF
Derek Hill
0.287
0.264
+2.4
home · ATL vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.866
Σ match
2.911
Σ FRV
+11.6
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
DH
Drake Baldwin
0.365
0.378
-0.3
2
RF
Ronald Acuña Jr.
0.361
0.364
-4.6
3
1B
Matt Olson
0.354
0.346
+8.3
4
CF
Michael Harris II
0.339
0.328
+11.2
5
SS
Mauricio Dubón
0.304
0.307
+4.1
6
2B
Ozzie Albies
0.284
0.281
-3.4
7
3B
Austin Riley
0.296
0.293
-1.1
8
LF
Mike Yastrzemski
0.307
0.324
-1.5
9
C
Sean Murphy
0.256
0.290
-1.1
defense · PHI catcher (Savant FRV)
J.T. Realmuto
FRV+1.0
framing-0.1
blocking-1.0
throwing+2.1
defense · ATL catcher (Savant FRV)
Sean Murphy
FRV-1.1
framing-1.0
blocking+0.6
throwing-0.8
PHI · Aaron Nola
Last outing 2026-09-06 vs ATL · 7.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
104
106(+2)
105
Location+
103
105(+1)
104
Pitching+
107
111(+4)
108
botStf
51
52(+1)
51
botCmd
58
56(-1)
57
botOvr
56
56(+0)
57
SIERA
3.99
4.07(+0.08)
4.15
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-25 → 2026-09-06. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.63
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-06; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
ATL · Chris Sale
Last outing 2026-09-04 vs PHI · 6.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
118
123(+5)
118
Location+
110
96(-14)
108
Pitching+
122
116(-5)
120
botStf
54
59(+5)
56
botCmd
60
49(-12)
58
botOvr
61
54(-6)
59
SIERA
2.87
3.13(+0.27)
2.61
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-21 → 2026-09-04. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.99
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-04; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.