Friday · September 11, 2026·full·gamePk 824711free Saturday
refreshed 344h 20m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Fenway Park
gametime 7:10 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
72°F
humidity 32%
wind
5 mph
out to RF
precip
0%
clear
park
BOS
open · HP→CF 46°
wind impact on total
+0.06 R/Gnone cross
Cross wind, but too light to move the total.
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Seth LugoRHP · KC
Sonny GrayRHP · BOS
xERA 2026
5.09
3.68
xwOBA 2026
0.344
0.297
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
0.007
0.000
xERA 2025
5.16
3.88
xwOBA 2025
0.348
0.306
Outs/TB 25-26
1.75
1.95
FIP 25-26
4.60
3.43
kwERA 25-26
4.12
3.14
K% 25-26
18.8%
24.6%
BB% 25-26
8.2%
5.7%
IP 25+26 combined
304.3
331.3
ERA actual 2026
5.04
2.69
ERA (L4)
8.24
2.16
WHIP (L4)
1.88
1.20
K% (L4)
12.0%
24.8%
BB% (L4)
5.4%
6.9%
IP/gm (L4)
4.92
6.25
L4 window
08/19→09/05 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/15→09/05 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
94 (+5)
98 (−3)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
5.34 (+0.66)
3.82 (−0.07)
Arsenal RV/100
-0.82
0.61
away arsenal — KC
RV/100 -0.82
Sinker—+0.50xwOBA 0.400
Curveball—-1.60xwOBA 0.263
Cutter—+0.10xwOBA 0.347
4-Seam Fastball—-2.50xwOBA 0.386
Sweeper—-2.50xwOBA 0.361
Slider—-0.50xwOBA 0.311
Changeup—+1.40xwOBA 0.311
Slurve—-4.30xwOBA 0.336
home arsenal — BOS
RV/100 0.61
Sinker—+2.20xwOBA 0.267
Sweeper—+1.10xwOBA 0.192
Cutter—+0.30xwOBA 0.362
4-Seam Fastball—+0.40xwOBA 0.388
Curveball—-1.20xwOBA 0.313
Changeup—-0.10xwOBA 0.327
away · KC vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.801
Σ match
2.753
Σ FRV
+19.7
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
C
Carter Jensen
0.311
0.309
+1.2
2
SS
Bobby Witt Jr.
0.385
0.374
+16.1
3
1B
Vinnie Pasquantino
0.330
0.324
+0.3
4
DH
Salvador Perez
0.310
0.311
-9.1
5
2B
Michael Massey
0.307
0.306
+5.7
6
RF
John Rave
0.307
0.299
+1.1
7
3B
Nick Loftin
0.294
0.287
-0.1
8
CF
Kyle Isbel
0.261
0.251
+3.5
9
LF
Isaac Collins
0.296
0.291
+0.9
home · BOS vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.880
Σ match
3.180
Σ FRV
+27.9
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
LF
Roman Anthony
0.355
0.396
-0.2
2
DH
Mickey Gasper
0.370
0.399
-1.9
3
C
Adley Rutschman
0.337
0.374
+11.1
4
RF
Wilyer Abreu
0.350
0.388
+4.8
5
SS
Trevor Story
0.245
0.280
-1.5
6
1B
Nick Sogard
0.318
0.347
+2.5
7
3B
Caleb Durbin
0.290
0.313
+5.0
8
CF
Jarren Duran
0.301
0.354
+4.2
9
2B
Isiah Kiner-Falefa
0.314
0.329
+4.0
defense · KC catcher (Savant FRV)
Carter Jensen
FRV+1.2
framing+1.9
blocking-2.8
throwing+2.0
defense · BOS catcher (Savant FRV)
Adley Rutschman
FRV+11.1
framing+6.9
blocking+0.6
throwing+3.6
KC · Seth Lugo
Last outing 2026-09-05 vs TOR · 5.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
90
94(+5)
94
Location+
104
94(-10)
97
Pitching+
95
82(-13)
90
botStf
45
43(-2)
45
botCmd
56
52(-3)
51
botOvr
52
47(-5)
48
SIERA
4.68
6.52(+1.84)
5.34
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-25 → 2026-09-05. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 5.25
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-05; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
BOS · Sonny Gray
Last outing 2026-09-05 vs BAL · 7.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
101
101(+0)
98
Location+
97
87(-11)
92
Pitching+
101
94(-7)
95
botStf
53
54(+1)
51
botCmd
55
46(-9)
49
botOvr
56
49(-7)
52
SIERA
3.89
3.95(+0.06)
3.82
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-21 → 2026-09-05. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 5.00
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-05; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
KC · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.48R / inningband [0.42–0.54]
0.113 R/PA · 0.160 R/out · worst: Anthony Gose (5.84)
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.