Friday · September 11, 2026·full·gamePk 824631free Saturday
refreshed 349h 2m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Wrigley Field
gametime 2:20 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
74°F
humidity 43%
wind
9 mph
cross LF to RF
precip
0%
clear
park
CHC
open · HP→CF 36°
wind impact on total
+0.01 R/Gnone cross
Cross wind, but too light to move the total.
opener / bulk pattern
PIT: Wilber Dotel opens → bulk: Carmen Mlodzinski· predicted bulk based on 1/11 prior short outings
both opener + bulk shown side-by-side below — lineup matchup keys to the bulk pitcher (who batters see for most of the game)
openers + bulk pitchers · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Wilber DotelRHP · opener · PIT
Carmen MlodzinskiRHP · bulk · PIT
Shota ImanagaLHP · CHC
xERA 2026
3.73
5.02
3.81
xwOBA 2026
0.299
0.342
0.302
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.012
-0.031
0.012
xERA 2025
—
4.07
4.07
xwOBA 2025
—
0.313
0.313
Outs/TB 25-26
2.45
1.98
1.83
FIP 25-26
3.09
3.47
4.76
kwERA 25-26
3.66
3.90
3.33
K% 25-26
24.6%
19.5%
22.3%
BB% 25-26
10.1%
7.0%
5.1%
IP 25+26 combined
32.7
213.0
301.0
ERA actual 2026
4.41
3.87
3.91
ERA (L4)
2.25
9.45
5.21
WHIP (L4)
1.12
2.48
1.26
K% (L4)
25.0%
9.9%
26.5%
BB% (L4)
12.5%
11.3%
7.2%
IP/gm (L4)
2.00
3.33
4.75
L4 window
08/04→09/08 (4 outs) · 4/4 dates verified
05/25→08/17 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/17→09/04 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
105 (+2)
91 (−0)
92 (−0)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
4.56 (+0.88)
5.93 (+1.40)
4.10 (+0.17)
Arsenal RV/100
1.04
0.03
0.06
away arsenal · BULK Carmen Mlodzinski — PIT
RV/100 0.03
4-Seam Fastball—-1.00xwOBA 0.373
Split-Finger—+1.40xwOBA 0.275
Sinker—-0.60xwOBA 0.405
Curveball—+0.00xwOBA 0.338
Sweeper—+1.30xwOBA 0.264
Slider—-0.70xwOBA 0.333
Cutter—-1.70xwOBA 0.466
home arsenal — CHC
RV/100 0.06
4-Seam Fastball—+0.20xwOBA 0.321
Split-Finger—+1.00xwOBA 0.237
Sweeper—-1.90xwOBA 0.370
Sinker—-1.20xwOBA 0.377
away · PIT vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.887
Σ match
2.792
Σ FRV
-12.6
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
SS
Konnor Griffin
0.302
0.303
-3.7
2
CF
Oneil Cruz
0.354
0.340
+1.7
3
DH
Bryan Reynolds
0.360
0.360
-3.2
4
1B
Rafael Flores Jr.
0.349
0.322
+0.2
5
RF
Esmerlyn Valdez
0.334
0.318
-2.5
6
2B
Nick Gonzales
0.326
0.312
-9.7
7
LF
Jake Mangum
0.284
0.271
+2.2
8
3B
Jared Triolo
0.290
0.290
-0.3
9
C
Henry Davis
0.288
0.276
+2.6
home · CHC vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.933
Σ match
3.181
Σ FRV
+53.5
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
CF
Pete Crow-Armstrong
0.373
0.409
+27.0
2
RF
Seiya Suzuki
0.339
0.364
+7.7
3
1B
Michael Busch
0.329
0.367
+1.2
4
3B
Alex Bregman
0.318
0.334
+6.4
5
LF
Ian Happ
0.313
0.350
+5.1
6
SS
Nico Hoerner
0.324
0.350
+7.7
7
DH
Michael Conforto
0.339
0.364
-1.8
8
2B
Pedro Ramírez
0.288
0.310
-0.2
9
C
Carson Kelly
0.310
0.332
+0.4
defense · PIT catcher (Savant FRV)
Henry Davis
FRV+2.6
framing+0.2
blocking+0.5
throwing+1.9
defense · CHC catcher (Savant FRV)
Carson Kelly
FRV+0.4
framing+1.6
blocking+1.6
throwing-2.7
PIT · Carmen Mlodzinski
Last outing 2026-09-09 vs CWS · 1.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
91
96(+5)
91
Location+
105
98(-7)
107
Pitching+
96
81(-15)
98
botStf
46
47(+0)
47
botCmd
55
59(+4)
56
botOvr
51
57(+6)
52
SIERA
4.53
4.65(+0.13)
5.93
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-07 → 2026-08-17. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.57
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-09; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
CHC · Shota Imanaga
Last outing 2026-09-04 vs MIA · 6.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
92
93(+0)
92
Location+
109
108(-2)
102
Pitching+
102
102(+0)
96
botStf
49
51(+3)
49
botCmd
53
49(-4)
50
botOvr
52
51(-1)
50
SIERA
3.93
3.42(-0.51)
4.10
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-23 → 2026-09-04. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.55
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-04; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.
Post-game
actual vs projected
Final total
14
2 PIT · 12 CHC
Projected total
—
Delta
—
actual − projected
Band cover
—
PIT
2 R
7H · 1HR · 3BB · 4K · 15LOB
OBPe 0.278 · SLGe 0.364 · K% 11.1
Their pitching
8.0 IP · 12 ER · 2 K · relief 6.0 IP · 3 arms
CHC
12 R
16H · 1HR · 2BB · 2K · 13LOB
OBPe 0.452 · SLGe 0.722 · K% 4.8
Their pitching
9.0 IP · 2 ER · 4 K · relief 3.0 IP · 4 arms
PIT · standout lines
big nights
Konnor Griffin (SS) · 2-4 | 3B, K, R4 TB
Bryan Reynolds (DH) · 1-3 | HR, BB, RBIHR
tough nights
Esmerlyn Valdez (RF) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K
Jared Triolo (RF) · 0-40-for-4
CHC · standout lines
big nights
Seiya Suzuki (RF) · 3-5 | 3B, RBI, 3 R3 H · 5 TB
Alex Bregman (3B) · 3-4 | HR, 2B, 2 RBIHR · 3 H · 7 TB