Friday · September 11, 2026·full·gamePk 824227free Saturday
refreshed 344h 21m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Comerica Park
gametime 6:40 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
73°F
humidity 62%
wind
5 mph
in from RF
precip
0%
clear
park
DET
open · HP→CF 150°
wind impact on total
-0.06 R/Gnone cross
Cross wind, but too light to move the total.
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Mason AdamsRHP · COL
Framber ValdezLHP · DET
xERA 2026
5.99
4.45
xwOBA 2026
0.369
0.324
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
0.041
-0.005
xERA 2025
—
3.77
xwOBA 2025
—
0.302
Outs/TB 25-26
1.32
2.15
FIP 25-26
5.73
3.74
kwERA 25-26
3.16
3.94
K% 25-26
28.8%
20.6%
BB% 25-26
10.2%
8.5%
IP 25+26 combined
13.7
349.7
ERA actual 2026
3.95
4.17
ERA (L4)
3.95
3.65
WHIP (L4)
1.61
1.22
K% (L4)
28.8%
12.9%
BB% (L4)
10.2%
7.9%
IP/gm (L4)
4.56
6.17
L4 window
08/25→09/05 (3 st) · 3/3 dates verified
08/17→09/05 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
96 (−1)
104 (+1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
3.82 (−0.74)
4.31 (−0.19)
Arsenal RV/100
-1.42
0.09
away arsenal — COL
RV/100 -1.42
4-Seam Fastball—-1.60xwOBA 0.376
Sinker—-1.20xwOBA 0.351
home arsenal — DET
RV/100 0.09
Sinker—+0.40xwOBA 0.373
Curveball—-0.40xwOBA 0.270
Changeup—+0.40xwOBA 0.327
Slider—+0.00xwOBA 0.158
4-Seam Fastball—-1.30xwOBA 0.254
away · COL vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.713
Σ match
2.868
Σ FRV
-5.4
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
LF
Jake McCarthy
0.322
0.326
-1.0
2
1B
Connor Norby
0.302
0.327
-0.8
3
CF
Cole Carrigg
0.313
0.326
+1.8
4
C
Hunter Goodman
0.319
0.357
-1.2
5
3B
Kyle Karros
0.339
0.324
+0.4
6
2B
Adael Amador
0.268
0.298
+0.3
7
DH
Troy Johnston
0.326
0.335
-2.5
8
RF
Jordan Beck
0.247
0.266
-3.2
9
SS
Ezequiel Tovar
0.277
0.311
+0.6
home · DET vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.906
Σ match
3.567
Σ FRV
+15.3
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
3B
Kevin McGonigle
0.350
0.465
-0.0
2
DH
Gleyber Torres
0.326
0.407
+0.3
3
1B
Colt Keith
0.335
0.403
-0.9
4
LF
Riley Greene
0.370
0.452
-5.6
5
C
Dillon Dingler
0.340
0.438
+11.7
6
CF
Max Clark
0.311
0.370
+2.3
7
SS
John Peck
0.332
0.343
+0.2
8
RF
Zach McKinstry
0.284
0.345
+10.2
9
2B
Javier Báez
0.258
0.344
-2.8
defense · COL catcher (Savant FRV)
Hunter Goodman
FRV-1.2
framing+0.2
blocking-0.6
throwing-0.8
defense · DET catcher (Savant FRV)
Dillon Dingler
FRV+11.7
framing+6.3
blocking+2.8
throwing+2.6
COL · Mason Adams
Last outing 2026-09-05 vs STL · 4.2 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
97
94(-2)
96
Location+
107
103(-4)
106
Pitching+
102
93(-9)
99
botStf
48
48(+0)
48
botCmd
60
59(-1)
60
botOvr
53
55(+2)
54
SIERA
4.56
2.34(-2.22)
3.82
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-25 → 2026-09-05. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.84
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-05; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
DET · Framber Valdez
Last outing 2026-09-05 vs CLE · 7.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
103
99(-3)
104
Location+
96
114(+18)
101
Pitching+
100
109(+9)
104
botStf
49
45(-5)
48
botCmd
52
58(+6)
53
botOvr
51
56(+5)
52
SIERA
4.50
4.08(-0.42)
4.31
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-24 → 2026-09-05. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.66
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-05; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.