Friday · September 11, 2026·full·gamePk 823817free Saturday
refreshed 342h 43m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · loanDepot park
gametime 7:10 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
81°F
humidity 87%
wind
2 mph
cross RF to LF
precip
30%
overcast
park
MIA
retractable · HP→CF 40°
wind impact on total
neutralnone cross
Cross wind, but too light to move the total.
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Blake SnellLHP · LAD
Ryan GustoRHP · MIA
xERA 2026
2.11
4.70
xwOBA 2026
0.226
0.332
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
0.011
0.002
xERA 2025
3.28
4.61
xwOBA 2025
0.283
0.331
Outs/TB 25-26
2.99
1.66
FIP 25-26
2.39
4.40
kwERA 25-26
3.07
3.84
K% 25-26
29.8%
20.5%
BB% 25-26
10.4%
7.5%
IP 25+26 combined
93.3
174.0
ERA actual 2026
1.97
4.23
ERA (L4)
0.78
2.89
WHIP (L4)
1.00
1.66
K% (L4)
30.4%
15.3%
BB% (L4)
12.0%
9.4%
IP/gm (L4)
5.75
4.67
L4 window
08/17→09/04 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/21→09/05 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
119 (+3)
98 (+1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
3.40 (+0.11)
4.49 (+0.57)
Arsenal RV/100
1.64
-0.28
away arsenal — LAD
RV/100 1.64
4-Seam Fastball—+1.90xwOBA 0.233
Curveball—+2.50xwOBA 0.138
Changeup—+0.40xwOBA 0.339
Slider—+0.50xwOBA 0.239
home arsenal — MIA
RV/100 -0.28
4-Seam Fastball—-0.40xwOBA 0.348
Changeup—+0.20xwOBA 0.353
Cutter—+2.10xwOBA 0.310
Sinker—-1.20xwOBA 0.344
Sweeper—+0.30xwOBA 0.319
Slider—-1.60xwOBA 0.329
Curveball—-2.10xwOBA 0.299
away · LAD vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.597
Σ match
3.073
Σ FRV
-1.2
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
CF
Tommy Edman
0.313
0.329
+1.5
2
3B
Max Muncy
0.349
0.381
+3.0
3
SS
Mookie Betts
0.332
0.352
+8.0
4
RF
Kyle Tucker
0.326
0.349
-7.4
5
C
Will Smith
0.382
0.412
-0.9
6
LF
Teoscar Hernández
0.333
0.353
-6.2
7
DH
Josue De Paula
—
0.285
—
8
2B
Alex Freeland
0.287
0.312
+1.3
9
1B
Enrique Hernández
0.275
0.301
-0.6
home · MIA vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.919
Σ match
2.202
Σ FRV
+4.7
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
LF
Heriberto Hernández
0.357
0.271
+0.3
2
SS
Otto Lopez
0.326
0.254
+10.0
3
CF
Jakob Marsee
0.311
0.232
+3.5
4
3B
Javier Sanoja
0.292
0.220
+3.0
5
C
Agustín Ramírez
0.272
0.192
-4.1
6
1B
Kyle Stowers
0.330
0.232
-2.7
7
RF
Esteury Ruiz
0.289
0.228
-3.6
8
2B
Jared Serna
0.375
0.298
+0.1
9
DH
Griffin Conine
0.367
0.276
-1.7
defense · LAD catcher (Savant FRV)
Will Smith
FRV-0.9
framing-1.3
blocking+0.6
throwing-0.2
defense · MIA catcher (Savant FRV)
Agustín Ramírez
FRV-4.1
framing-2.2
blocking-1.5
throwing-0.5
LAD · Blake Snell
Last outing 2026-09-04 vs WSH · 6.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
116
125(+9)
119
Location+
104
111(+7)
106
Pitching+
116
131(+15)
120
botStf
58
59(+1)
58
botCmd
55
57(+2)
56
botOvr
59
61(+2)
60
SIERA
3.29
3.09(-0.20)
3.40
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-23 → 2026-09-04. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 2.92
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-04; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
MIA · Ryan Gusto
Last outing 2026-09-05 vs CHC · 4.2 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
97
98(+1)
98
Location+
103
93(-10)
98
Pitching+
100
86(-14)
92
botStf
52
49(-2)
50
botCmd
58
55(-3)
58
botOvr
56
53(-4)
56
SIERA
3.93
4.28(+0.35)
4.49
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-26 → 2026-09-05. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.30
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-05; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.