Friday · September 11, 2026·full·gamePk 823736free Saturday
refreshed 344h 16m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · American Family Field
gametime 7:45 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
71°F
humidity 59%
wind
7 mph
in from CF
precip
0%
clear
park
MIL
retractable · HP→CF 137°
wind impact on total
neutralnone in
In wind, but too light to move the total.
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Andrew AbbottLHP · CIN
Dustin MayRHP · MIL
xERA 2026
4.89
4.30
xwOBA 2026
0.338
0.319
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.011
-0.002
xERA 2025
3.56
5.20
xwOBA 2025
0.294
0.349
Outs/TB 25-26
2.01
1.91
FIP 25-26
4.19
4.19
kwERA 25-26
4.00
3.84
K% 25-26
20.0%
21.8%
BB% 25-26
8.3%
8.8%
IP 25+26 combined
318.7
264.7
ERA actual 2026
4.43
4.69
ERA (L4)
6.52
11.32
WHIP (L4)
1.45
2.23
K% (L4)
20.9%
18.2%
BB% (L4)
7.0%
9.1%
IP/gm (L4)
4.83
2.58
L4 window
08/18→09/05 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/19→09/05 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
91 (−3)
92 (−8)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
4.52 (−0.67)
4.69 (+0.25)
Arsenal RV/100
-0.30
-0.10
away arsenal — CIN
RV/100 -0.30
4-Seam Fastball—-0.60xwOBA 0.400
Sweeper—+0.20xwOBA 0.236
Changeup—+0.40xwOBA 0.281
Curveball—-1.20xwOBA 0.326
Cutter—+0.30xwOBA 0.404
home arsenal — MIL
RV/100 -0.10
4-Seam Fastball—+0.00xwOBA 0.316
Cutter—+0.90xwOBA 0.313
Sweeper—-1.20xwOBA 0.304
Sinker—+0.80xwOBA 0.351
Curveball—-0.90xwOBA 0.265
Changeup—-2.70xwOBA 0.361
away · CIN vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.802
Σ match
2.946
Σ FRV
-6.2
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
RF
Héctor Rodríguez
0.270
0.283
+0.5
2
SS
Elly De La Cruz
0.374
0.378
+4.1
3
1B
Sal Stewart
0.351
0.360
-4.4
4
LF
JJ Bleday
0.342
0.366
-1.3
5
C
Tyler Stephenson
0.334
0.353
-6.9
6
DH
Eugenio Suárez
0.290
0.304
-6.3
7
CF
Carlos Jorge
0.233
0.283
+0.2
8
2B
Matt McLain
0.304
0.316
+3.7
9
3B
Ke'Bryan Hayes
0.304
0.302
+4.1
home · MIL vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.978
Σ match
3.181
Σ FRV
+17.7
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
LF
Jackson Chourio
0.339
0.370
+6.6
2
2B
Brice Turang
0.338
0.348
+12.6
3
C
William Contreras
0.333
0.343
-3.7
4
DH
Andrew Vaughn
0.332
0.383
-6.1
5
1B
Jake Bauers
0.376
0.412
-9.3
6
RF
Luis Lara
0.307
0.344
+1.4
7
SS
Cooper Pratt
0.307
0.319
+2.6
8
CF
Garrett Mitchell
0.350
0.355
+3.8
9
3B
Joey Ortiz
0.296
0.307
+9.6
defense · CIN catcher (Savant FRV)
Tyler Stephenson
FRV-6.9
framing-9.0
blocking+3.1
throwing-1.0
defense · MIL catcher (Savant FRV)
William Contreras
FRV-3.7
framing-5.4
blocking-1.1
throwing+2.8
CIN · Andrew Abbott
Last outing 2026-09-05 vs MIL · 4.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
94
95(+1)
91
Location+
98
116(+17)
105
Pitching+
93
107(+14)
99
botStf
51
51(-0)
49
botCmd
53
63(+10)
57
botOvr
51
59(+8)
54
SIERA
5.19
2.24(-2.95)
4.52
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-23 → 2026-09-05. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.24
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-05; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
MIL · Dustin May
Last outing 2026-09-05 vs CIN · 3.2 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
100
104(+4)
92
Location+
102
126(+23)
116
Pitching+
103
133(+30)
114
botStf
57
55(-2)
53
botCmd
52
62(+9)
65
botOvr
56
67(+11)
65
SIERA
4.44
2.24(-2.20)
4.69
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-26 → 2026-09-05. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 1.77
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-05; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
CIN · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera
0.43R / inningband [0.38–0.49]
0.102 R/PA · 0.144 R/out · worst: Tony Santillan (4.66)
MIL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera
0.41R / inningband [0.36–0.46]
0.097 R/PA · 0.138 R/out · worst: Antonio Senzatela (4.15)
CIN
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Emilio Pagán
CLOSER
CL
4.70
24.3
6.6
0.91
22/0/15
stable
Graham Ashcraft
SETUP
MR
3.51
28.6
15.1
1.04
1/11/5
stable
Brock Burke
SETUP
SU
3.85
24.2
13.3
0.95
2/18/10
stable
Pierce Johnson
SETUP
MR
4.79
19.1
9.6
0.88
1/8/8
stable
Tony Santillan
SETUP
MR
7.10
19.7
13.5
0.91
5/11/11
stable
Luis Mey
MR
MR
3.34
32.5
14.3
1.24
0/4/0
ramping down
Tejay Antone
MR
SU
3.90
24.6
7.2
1.00
1/9/6
stable
Julian Garcia
MR
MR
4.60
24.2
9.9
1.62
2/3/2
stable
MIL
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Trevor Megill
CLOSER
CL
1.92
28.8
6.8
0.97
27/7/21
stable
Abner Uribe
SETUP
SU
2.90
25.9
8.8
0.99
6/20/13
stable
Aaron Ashby
SETUP
SU
3.04
31.2
11.2
1.23
2/15/5
stable
JoJo Romero
SETUP
MR
4.17
21.9
8.6
0.98
0/21/4
stable
Chad Patrick
SWING
MR
4.02
20.8
9.9
2.46
5/10/5
ramping down
Garrett Stallings
MR
MR
1.97
30.0
10.0
1.50
0/0/2
insufficient data
Antonio Senzatela
MR
MR
3.62
19.2
8.7
1.61
3/10/11
ramping down
DL Hall
MR
MR
3.84
27.6
15.6
1.29
0/5/5
stable
glossary
Pitcher metrics
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.
Post-game
actual vs projected
Final total
20
0 CIN · 20 MIL
Projected total
—
Delta
—
actual − projected
Band cover
—
CIN
0 R
2H · 0HR · 2BB · 8K · 8LOB
OBPe 0.125 · SLGe 0.067 · K% 25.0
Their pitching
8.0 IP · 20 ER · 6 K · relief 6.0 IP · 6 arms
MIL
20 R
23H · 4HR · 2BB · 6K · 14LOB
OBPe 0.510 · SLGe 0.848 · K% 12.2
Their pitching
9.0 IP · 0 ER · 8 K · relief 3.0 IP · 2 arms
CIN · standout lines
tough nights
Héctor Rodríguez (RF) · 0-40-for-4
Elly De La Cruz (SS) · 0-3 | BB, 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K
MIL · standout lines
big nights
Jackson Chourio (LF) · 4-6 | 2 2B, K, 2 RBI4 H · 6 TB