Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

CLE @ MIN

Friday · September 11, 2026·full·gamePk 823659free Saturday

refreshed 344h 19m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Target Field

gametime 8:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

79°F

humidity 46%

wind

13 mph

cross LF to RF

precip

overcast

park

MIN

open · HP→CF 73°

wind impact on total

+0.07 R/Gnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Parker MessickLHP · CLE	Taj BradleyRHP · MIN
xERA 2026	3.04	3.92
xwOBA 2026	0.271	0.306
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.002	-0.001
xERA 2025	3.07	4.10
xwOBA 2025	0.274	0.314
Outs/TB 25-26	2.27	2.03
FIP 25-26	3.08	4.17
kwERA 25-26	3.08	3.65
K% 25-26	25.5%	24.3%
BB% 25-26	6.2%	9.7%
IP 25+26 combined	206.7	302.0
ERA actual 2026	2.53	3.95
ERA (L4)	2.19	3.80
WHIP (L4)	1.05	1.10
K% (L4)	31.6%	34.4%
BB% (L4)	5.1%	9.4%
IP/gm (L4)	6.17	5.92
L4 window	08/19→09/05 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified	08/19→09/05 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
Arsenal RV/100	1.07	0.06

away arsenal — CLE

RV/100 1.07

4-Seam Fastball—+2.40xwOBA 0.244
Changeup—+0.40xwOBA 0.212
Sinker—+2.70xwOBA 0.360
Curveball—-2.10xwOBA 0.323
Slider—-2.20xwOBA 0.392
Cutter—-1.80xwOBA 0.340

home arsenal — MIN

RV/100 0.06

4-Seam Fastball—+0.50xwOBA 0.376
Cutter—+0.60xwOBA 0.240
Split-Finger—-0.40xwOBA 0.238
Curveball—-2.70xwOBA 0.242

away · CLE vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.826

Σ match

2.863

Σ FRV

+8.2

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Steven Kwan	0.321	0.309	+6.9
2	DH	Chase DeLauter	0.345	0.341	+1.6
3	3B	José Ramírez	0.331	0.337	+0.8
4	RF	Jo Adell	0.325	0.334	-8.2
5	2B	Travis Bazzana	0.303	0.318	-2.3
6	1B	Nathaniel Lowe	0.338	0.338	-2.5
7	LF	Angel Martínez	0.299	0.322	+2.9
8	C	Austin Hedges	0.272	0.272	-1.8
9	SS	Brayan Rocchio	0.292	0.293	+10.7

home · MIN vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.822

Σ match

2.514

Σ FRV

-18.2

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	RF	Luke Keaschall	0.316	0.277	-11.0
2	SS	Kaelen Culpepper	0.300	0.263	+0.1
3	C	Ryan Jeffers	0.363	0.325	-3.7
4	DH	Josh Bell	0.335	0.300	-0.9
5	2B	Kody Clemens	0.339	0.299	-2.6
6	1B	Royce Lewis	0.312	0.273	-2.1
7	3B	Brooks Lee	0.276	0.242	-0.3
8	LF	Austin Martin	0.311	0.273	+2.3
9	CF	Walker Jenkins	0.270	0.263	-0.1

defense · CLE catcher (Savant FRV)

Austin Hedges

FRV-1.8
framing+1.4
blocking-0.9
throwing-2.2

defense · MIN catcher (Savant FRV)

Ryan Jeffers

FRV-3.7
framing-0.5
blocking+0.1
throwing-3.4

CLE · Parker Messick

Last outing 2026-09-05 vs DET · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-24 → 2026-09-05. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-08-30: Stuff+ 102 · Location+ 93 · Pitching+ 96 · botStf 53 · botCmd 46 · botOvr 49 · SIERA 4.56

2026-08-24: Stuff+ 97 · Location+ 113 · Pitching+ 109 · botStf 54 · botCmd 58 · botOvr 58 · SIERA 3.59

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-05; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

MIN · Taj Bradley

Last outing 2026-09-05 vs CWS · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-25 → 2026-09-05. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-08-31: Stuff+ 108 · Location+ 83 · Pitching+ 89 · botStf 53 · botCmd 50 · botOvr 51 · SIERA 3.26

2026-08-25: Stuff+ 114 · Location+ 110 · Pitching+ 118 · botStf 54 · botCmd 64 · botOvr 62 · SIERA 2.10

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

CLE · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.31–0.49]

0.094 R/PA · 0.134 R/out · worst: Tim Herrin (4.15)

MIN · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.33–0.48]

0.095 R/PA · 0.134 R/out · worst: Kody Funderburk (4.46)

CLE

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Cade Smith	CLOSER	CL	2.37	35.7	8.3	1.05	35/0/37	stable
Erik Sabrowski	SETUP	SU	2.76	37.6	14.6	0.78	1/23/2	stable
Matt Festa	SETUP	MR	3.39	24.6	7.0	0.97	1/7/13	stable
Hunter Gaddis	SETUP	SU	3.79	22.4	9.6	0.86	1/28/2	stable
Tim Herrin	SETUP	MR	4.29	22.2	11.8	0.79	0/15/5	stable
Daniel Espino	MR	MR	1.99	41.9	9.3	1.00	0/0/1	stable
Franco Aleman	MR	MR	4.06	28.7	10.6	1.11	0/3/0	stable
Craig Yoho	MR	MR	4.56	25.5	9.4	1.33	0/2/5	stable
Slade Cecconi	SP	LR	4.66	18.2	7.3	5.21	0/0/0	ramping up

MIN

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Yoendrys Gómez	CLOSER	CL	4.47	21.4	12.4	1.12	22/6/26	ramping down
Jeff Hoffman	SETUP	SU	2.44	34.3	9.3	0.94	5/18/16	stable
Kody Funderburk	SETUP	MR	3.92	20.6	12.7	0.94	1/11/1	stable
Taylor Rogers	SETUP	MR	4.10	19.1	11.2	0.82	2/9/10	stable
Andrew Morris	OPENER	MR	3.21	21.1	8.3	1.31	4/21/6	ramping down
A.J. Minter	MR	SU	3.70	22.0	4.7	1.00	0/8/8	stable
Tommy Nance	MR	MR	3.78	25.6	9.0	1.04	0/6/4	stable
Travis Adams	MR	LR	4.11	26.0	10.6	1.46	2/1/6	stable

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

5 CLE · 2 MIN

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

CLE

5 R

7H · 1HR · 6BB · 9K · 21LOB

OBPe 0.333 · SLGe 0.394 · K% 23.1

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 7 K · relief 3.7 IP · 5 arms

MIN

2 R

6H · 0HR · 2BB · 7K · 17LOB

OBPe 0.278 · SLGe 0.226 · K% 19.4

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 5 ER · 9 K · relief 3.0 IP · 5 arms

CLE · standout lines

big nights

Angel Martínez (RF) · 2-4 | HR, 2B, 2 RBIHR

tough nights

Chase DeLauter (DH) · 0-4 | BB, K0-for-4
José Ramírez (3B) · 0-5 | 2 K0-for-5 · 2 K
Jo Adell (RF) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K

MIN · standout lines

tough nights

Luke Keaschall (RF) · 0-40-for-4
Brooks Lee (3B) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K