Friday · September 11, 2026·full·gamePk 823498free Saturday
refreshed 344h 20m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Yankee Stadium
gametime 7:05 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
76°F
humidity 38%
wind
4 mph
cross RF to LF
precip
0%
clear
park
NYY
open · HP→CF 75°
wind impact on total
+0.04 R/Gnone cross
Cross wind, but too light to move the total.
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Nolan McLeanRHP · NYM
Carlos RodónLHP · NYY
xERA 2026
3.63
3.90
xwOBA 2026
0.295
0.305
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.011
-0.032
xERA 2025
3.56
3.33
xwOBA 2025
0.294
0.285
Outs/TB 25-26
2.63
2.64
FIP 25-26
3.43
3.78
kwERA 25-26
3.23
3.51
K% 25-26
27.5%
25.8%
BB% 25-26
9.4%
10.1%
IP 25+26 combined
209.7
259.3
ERA actual 2026
3.06
3.09
ERA (L4)
1.08
2.55
WHIP (L4)
1.20
0.96
K% (L4)
19.4%
24.7%
BB% (L4)
14.6%
11.0%
IP/gm (L4)
6.25
4.42
L4 window
08/17→09/04 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/18→09/05 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
110 (+3)
103 (−4)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
4.94 (+1.11)
4.76 (+0.16)
Arsenal RV/100
0.61
0.50
away arsenal — NYM
RV/100 0.61
Sinker—+2.80xwOBA 0.273
4-Seam Fastball—+0.40xwOBA 0.386
Curveball—+1.20xwOBA 0.158
Sweeper—-3.00xwOBA 0.396
Cutter—-2.00xwOBA 0.380
Changeup—-1.10xwOBA 0.309
Slider—+0.90xwOBA 0.201
home arsenal — NYY
RV/100 0.50
4-Seam Fastball—+1.00xwOBA 0.392
Slider—-0.20xwOBA 0.236
Changeup—-0.50xwOBA 0.280
Sinker—+1.20xwOBA 0.247
away · NYM vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.900
Σ match
3.001
Σ FRV
-8.9
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
SS
Francisco Lindor
0.335
0.342
-0.2
2
LF
Juan Soto
0.416
0.433
-2.9
3
3B
Bo Bichette
0.328
0.331
-2.3
4
DH
Mark Vientos
0.312
0.334
-7.0
5
RF
Carson Benge
0.334
0.348
+5.8
6
2B
Marcus Semien
0.306
0.326
-6.9
7
1B
Christopher Morel
0.223
0.225
-2.9
8
CF
A.J. Ewing
0.322
0.338
+6.8
9
C
Francisco Alvarez
0.324
0.325
+0.8
home · NYY vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.962
Σ match
2.996
Σ FRV
+15.2
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
DH
Ben Rice
0.373
0.374
-4.7
2
LF
Cody Bellinger
0.339
0.324
+10.0
3
RF
Aaron Judge
0.407
0.416
-1.2
4
1B
Luis García Jr.
0.351
0.367
+1.1
5
CF
Spencer Jones
0.334
0.331
-3.0
6
SS
George Lombard Jr.
0.268
0.273
-0.5
7
3B
Ryan McMahon
0.302
0.305
+2.5
8
C
Austin Wells
0.293
0.308
+5.8
9
2B
Anthony Volpe
0.295
0.298
+5.2
defense · NYM catcher (Savant FRV)
Francisco Alvarez
FRV+0.8
framing+1.9
blocking-1.6
throwing+0.6
defense · NYY catcher (Savant FRV)
Austin Wells
FRV+5.8
framing+5.7
blocking+1.5
throwing-1.5
NYM · Nolan McLean
Last outing 2026-09-04 vs SF · 6.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
107
109(+3)
110
Location+
95
78(-17)
83
Pitching+
105
93(-12)
95
botStf
59
61(+1)
58
botCmd
51
44(-6)
48
botOvr
55
47(-8)
52
SIERA
3.83
4.39(+0.56)
4.94
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-23 → 2026-09-04. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 5.22
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-04; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
NYY · Carlos Rodón
Last outing 2026-09-05 vs SD · 5.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
107
103(-5)
103
Location+
86
95(+9)
92
Pitching+
93
94(+2)
94
botStf
55
53(-2)
53
botCmd
46
55(+9)
49
botOvr
49
55(+6)
51
SIERA
4.60
4.06(-0.54)
4.76
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-23 → 2026-09-05. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.86
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-05; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.