Baseball Daily

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today's slate

SD @ SF

Friday · September 11, 2026·full·gamePk 823173free Saturday

refreshed 342h 5m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Oracle Park

gametime 10:15 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

62°F

humidity 81%

wind

16 mph

out to CF

precip

clear

park

open · HP→CF 91°

wind impact on total

+0.54 R/Gmoderate out

Moderate wind out: +0.54 R/G vs neutral. _Oracle Park — the famous wind park. McCovey Cove wind blows IN HARD from west most days, suppresses HR violently. Calm summer warm games (rare) let ball fly to LF_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Robbie RayLHP · SD	Anthony MolinaRHP · SF
xERA 2026	4.79	3.81
xwOBA 2026	0.335	0.302
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.021	-0.053
xERA 2025	3.71	7.44
xwOBA 2025	0.300	0.405
Outs/TB 25-26	2.14	1.56
FIP 25-26	4.27	5.89
kwERA 25-26	3.99	3.84
K% 25-26	22.5%	16.9%
BB% 25-26	10.8%	3.9%
IP 25+26 combined	333.7	54.0
ERA actual 2026	3.39	2.79
ERA (L4)	4.12	1.88
WHIP (L4)	1.42	0.70
K% (L4)	16.7%	24.5%
BB% (L4)	14.3%	3.8%
IP/gm (L4)	4.92	4.78
L4 window	08/18→09/05 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified	08/25→09/05 (3 outs) · 2/3 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
Arsenal RV/100	0.26	1.04

away arsenal — SD

RV/100 0.26

4-Seam Fastball—-0.40xwOBA 0.380
Slider—-0.30xwOBA 0.348
Changeup—+1.60xwOBA 0.259
Sinker—-0.40xwOBA 0.399
Curveball—+1.80xwOBA 0.235

home arsenal — SF

RV/100 1.04

4-Seam Fastball—+1.60xwOBA 0.319
Changeup—+0.20xwOBA 0.320
Curveball—+0.50xwOBA 0.224

away · SD vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.881

Σ match

2.811

Σ FRV

+29.1

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	2B	Fernando Tatis Jr.	0.374	0.367	+5.0
2	1B	Jake Cronenworth	0.269	0.274	-2.3
3	3B	Manny Machado	0.337	0.342	+5.7
4	DH	Luis Campusano	0.346	0.334	-3.0
5	CF	Jackson Merrill	0.345	0.323	+9.1
6	SS	Xander Bogaerts	0.322	0.316	+4.5
7	LF	Samad Taylor	0.304	0.301	-0.7
8	RF	Dustin Harris	0.309	0.290	+0.5
9	C	Freddy Fermin	0.275	0.264	+10.4

home · SF vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.644

Σ match

2.854

Σ FRV

-15.0

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Jonah Cox	0.256	0.275	+1.5
2	DH	Rafael Devers	0.341	0.354	-4.9
3	1B	Bryce Eldridge	0.357	0.405	+1.6
4	2B	Osleivis Basabe	0.277	0.289	-5.5
5	LF	Turner Hill	0.331	0.351	-0.8
6	3B	Shay Whitcomb	0.262	0.304	+0.4
7	RF	Jung Hoo Lee	0.316	0.328	-6.0
8	C	Andrew Knizner	0.255	0.290	-3.7
9	SS	Christian Koss	0.249	0.260	+2.2

defense · SD catcher (Savant FRV)

Freddy Fermin

FRV+10.4
framing+3.7
blocking+2.1
throwing+4.6

defense · SF catcher (Savant FRV)

Andrew Knizner

FRV-3.7
framing-1.8
blocking-0.9
throwing-1.0

SD · Robbie Ray

Last outing 2026-09-05 vs NYY · 2.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-24 → 2026-09-05. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-08-30: Stuff+ 94 · Location+ 85 · Pitching+ 85 · botStf 47 · botCmd 43 · botOvr 42 · SIERA 5.92

2026-08-24: Stuff+ 88 · Location+ 94 · Pitching+ 86 · botStf 41 · botCmd 51 · botOvr 44 · SIERA 4.08

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-05; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

SF · Anthony Molina

Last outing 2026-09-05 vs NYM · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 outings: 2026-08-25 → 2026-09-05. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-08-31: Stuff+ 100 · Location+ 109 · Pitching+ 108 · botStf 53 · botCmd 60 · botOvr 58 · SIERA 3.46

2026-08-25: Stuff+ 97 · Location+ 87 · Pitching+ 86 · botStf 53 · botCmd 46 · botOvr 47 · SIERA 5.76

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

SD · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.34–0.47]

0.094 R/PA · 0.133 R/out · worst: Wandy Peralta (4.45)

SF · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.47R / inningband [0.37–0.57]

0.111 R/PA · 0.157 R/out · worst: Philip Abner (5.74)

SD

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Mason Miller	CLOSER	CL	0.96	48.5	9.0	1.04	34/0/34	stable
Adrian Morejon	SETUP	SU	2.42	29.8	7.5	1.16	3/23/6	stable
Kyle Hart	SETUP	MR	3.37	22.9	7.6	1.40	0/8/5	stable
Bradgley Rodriguez	OPENER	SU	2.31	27.1	6.8	1.09	2/13/5	stable
Wandy Peralta	OPENER	MR	3.96	15.8	7.9	1.17	0/4/14	stable
David Morgan	MR	MR	4.22	23.4	13.3	1.22	0/2/5	stable
Yuki Matsui	MR	MR	4.30	26.7	13.8	1.35	0/8/5	ramping down
Griffin Canning	SP	MR	4.74	22.8	10.4	4.24	0/1/0	ramping down

SF

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Joel Kuhnel	SETUP	CL	5.28	13.5	7.6	1.01	7/6/16	stable
Dylan Smith	MR	MR	3.42	27.7	10.8	0.88	4/7/5	stable
Jason Foley	MR	MR	3.76	13.8	9.2	1.00	0/2/0	insufficient data
Reiver Sanmartin	MR	MR	4.30	18.2	6.8	1.67	0/4/1	insufficient data
Philip Abner	MR	MR	5.48	9.9	12.7	1.87	0/0/1	stable
Carson Seymour	MR	MR	6.05	16.2	11.7	2.17	1/7/0	insufficient data
Trent Harris	unknown	MR	1.78	31.3	10.4	—	1/4/0	—
Matt Wilkinson	unknown	MR	5.73	14.1	5.6	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

7 SD · 5 SF

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

SD

7 R

12H · 0HR · 4BB · 8K · 21LOB

OBPe 0.372 · SLGe 0.538 · K% 18.6

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 5 ER · 11 K · relief 4.0 IP · 5 arms

SF

5 R

6H · 1HR · 6BB · 11K · 12LOB

OBPe 0.308 · SLGe 0.333 · K% 28.2

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 7 ER · 8 K · relief 6.0 IP · 3 arms

SD · standout lines

big nights

Jackson Merrill (CF) · 3-5 | 2B, 2 R, SB3 H · 4 TB
Dustin Harris (RF) · 2-3 | 3B, BB, 2 RBI4 TB
Freddy Fermin (C) · 2-4 | 2 2B, K, 2 RBI4 TB

tough nights

Manny Machado (3B) · 0-5 | K0-for-5

SF · standout lines

big nights

Rafael Devers (DH) · 1-4 | HR, BB, KHR · 4 RBI

tough nights

Turner Hill (LF) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Jung Hoo Lee (RF) · 0-40-for-4