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today's slate

CWS @ STL

Friday · September 11, 2026·full·gamePk 823012free Saturday

refreshed 344h 17m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Busch Stadium

gametime 8:15 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

80°F

humidity 73%

wind

2 mph

out to CF

precip

overcast

park

STL

open · HP→CF 4°

wind impact on total

+0.05 R/Gnone out

Out wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Anthony KayLHP · CWS	Matthew LiberatoreLHP · STL
xERA 2026	4.95	4.86
xwOBA 2026	0.340	0.337
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.000	0.016
xERA 2025	—	4.86
xwOBA 2025	—	0.339
Outs/TB 25-26	1.80	1.72
FIP 25-26	4.84	4.26
kwERA 25-26	4.15	3.71
K% 25-26	18.3%	21.1%
BB% 25-26	7.9%	7.1%
IP 25+26 combined	141.0	290.7
ERA actual 2026	4.47	5.57
ERA (L4)	8.05	8.55
WHIP (L4)	1.58	1.35
K% (L4)	17.8%	31.5%
BB% (L4)	6.7%	5.6%
IP/gm (L4)	4.75	5.00
L4 window	08/15→09/05 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified	08/19→09/05 (4 st) · 2/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
Arsenal RV/100	-0.46	-0.72

away arsenal — CWS

RV/100 -0.46

4-Seam Fastball—-0.10xwOBA 0.355
Sweeper—-0.80xwOBA 0.327
Sinker—+0.40xwOBA 0.342
Cutter—-0.50xwOBA 0.444
Changeup—-0.90xwOBA 0.249
Slider—-1.80xwOBA 0.288

home arsenal — STL

RV/100 -0.72

4-Seam Fastball—-0.30xwOBA 0.387
Slider—+0.10xwOBA 0.256
Curveball—-1.00xwOBA 0.250
Changeup—-0.90xwOBA 0.410
Sinker—-2.10xwOBA 0.388
Cutter—-4.90xwOBA 0.379

away · CWS vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.686

Σ match

2.825

Σ FRV

+4.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	2B	Chase Meidroth	0.292	0.312	+10.3
2	LF	Randal Grichuk	0.334	0.340	-1.7
3	1B	Miguel Vargas	0.381	0.400	-4.8
4	3B	Colson Montgomery	0.303	0.312	+9.3
5	DH	Edgar Quero	0.280	0.299	-6.1
6	CF	Brenton Doyle	0.234	0.250	-2.0
7	RF	Braden Montgomery	0.330	0.358	+1.1
8	C	Jake Rogers	0.267	0.277	-1.5
9	SS	Luisangel Acuña	0.265	0.277	+0.2

home · STL vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.906

Σ match

3.128

Σ FRV

+4.3

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	3B	José Fermín	0.289	0.308	-2.0
2	DH	Iván Herrera	0.332	0.358	-4.5
3	RF	Jordan Walker	0.345	0.386	-8.2
4	1B	Alec Burleson	0.377	0.405	+4.4
5	LF	Joshua Báez	0.309	0.331	-1.7
6	C	Leo Bernal	0.360	0.359	-0.0
7	2B	Thomas Saggese	0.313	0.335	+0.1
8	SS	Masyn Winn	0.299	0.337	+15.7
9	CF	Nathan Church	0.282	0.310	+0.6

defense · CWS catcher (Savant FRV)

Jake Rogers

FRV-1.5
framing-0.9
blocking-1.4
throwing+0.8

defense · STL catcher (Savant FRV)

Leo Bernal

FRV-0.0
framing+0.4
blocking+0.2
throwing+0.1

CWS · Anthony Kay

Last outing 2026-09-05 vs MIN · 4.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-25 → 2026-09-05. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-08-31: Stuff+ 106 · Location+ 108 · Pitching+ 110 · botStf 58 · botCmd 56 · botOvr 58 · SIERA 4.29

2026-08-25: Stuff+ 101 · Location+ 110 · Pitching+ 110 · botStf 56 · botCmd 62 · botOvr 62 · SIERA 5.11

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-05; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

STL · Matthew Liberatore

Last outing 2026-09-05 vs COL · 4.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-25 → 2026-09-05. 1/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-08-30: Stuff+ 95 · Location+ 93 · Pitching+ 90 · botStf 50 · botCmd 50 · botOvr 46 · SIERA 3.06

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

CWS · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.43R / inningband [0.35–0.50]

0.101 R/PA · 0.142 R/out · worst: Tyler Schweitzer (4.99)

STL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.45R / inningband [0.27–0.63]

0.106 R/PA · 0.150 R/out · worst: Gordon Graceffo (4.53)

CWS

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Sean Newcomb	SETUP	MR	2.92	21.8	8.6	1.51	4/11/6	ramping up
Grant Taylor	OPENER	CL	2.63	32.4	8.7	1.33	8/10/11	stable
Bryan Hudson	OPENER	CL	3.11	22.4	6.7	0.98	7/9/8	stable
Chris Murphy	OPENER	MR	3.84	22.4	11.2	1.05	1/1/6	stable
Jordan Hicks	MR	MR	3.73	28.8	14.6	0.91	1/8/6	stable
Trevor Richards	MR	MR	4.07	22.5	7.6	1.46	1/1/16	stable
Tyler Schweitzer	MR	MR	4.25	11.6	8.2	1.86	1/2/6	ramping up
Hagen Smith	unknown	SU	2.59	37.1	14.3	—	0/1/0	—

STL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Riley O'Brien	CLOSER	CL	3.66	22.7	10.4	0.99	36/1/33	stable
Justin Bruihl	SETUP	MR	3.89	15.9	8.3	1.11	0/10/5	ramping up
Ryne Stanek	SETUP	SU	4.67	24.4	11.8	0.89	2/25/5	stable
George Soriano	SETUP	MR	4.79	22.8	11.0	0.98	3/21/7	stable
Brycen Mautz	BULK	MR	6.54	22.9	14.6	3.00	0/0/1	insufficient data
Gordon Graceffo	MR	SU	3.92	18.2	11.0	1.18	1/6/10	stable
Luis Gastelum	MR	MR	4.34	30.3	8.2	1.00	0/1/1	stable
Cooper Hjerpe	unknown	LR	0.09	50.0	0.0	—	0/0/0	—
Cade Winquest	unknown	MR	3.09	20.7	10.3	—	0/1/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

3 CWS · 7 STL

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

CWS

3 R

9H · 2HR · 6BB · 7K · 23LOB

OBPe 0.405 · SLGe 0.471 · K% 16.7

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 7 ER · 5 K · relief 4.0 IP · 3 arms

STL

7 R

13H · 0HR · 2BB · 5K · 19LOB

OBPe 0.421 · SLGe 0.514 · K% 13.2

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 3 ER · 7 K · relief 4.7 IP · 6 arms

CWS · standout lines

big nights

Chase Meidroth (2B) · 2-4 | 2 HR, BB, K2-HR night · 8 TB

tough nights

Colson Montgomery (SS) · 0-4 | BB, 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K
Braden Montgomery (RF) · 0-40-for-4

STL · standout lines

big nights

Joshua Báez (LF) · 3-4 | 2 2B, K, 2 RBI3 H · 5 TB
Leo Bernal (C) · 3-4 | 2B, 2 RBI, R3 H · 4 TB

tough nights

Iván Herrera (DH) · 0-4 | HBP, 2 K, R0-for-4 · 2 K
Masyn Winn (SS) · 0-4 | K, RBI0-for-4