Friday · September 11, 2026·full·gamePk 822930free Saturday
refreshed 344h 11m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · George M. Steinbrenner Field
gametime 7:10 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
86°F
humidity 73%
wind
1 mph
out to RF
precip
26%
overcast
park
TB
open · HP→CF 45°
wind impact on total
+0.01 R/Gnone calm
Calm air — wind not a factor.
opener / bulk pattern
HOU: Miguel Ullola opens → bulk: AJ Blubaugh· predicted bulk based on 1/5 prior short outings
both opener + bulk shown side-by-side below — lineup matchup keys to the bulk pitcher (who batters see for most of the game)
openers + bulk pitchers · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Miguel UllolaRHP · opener · HOU
AJ BlubaughRHP · bulk · HOU
Drew RasmussenRHP · TB
xERA 2026
3.73
4.09
3.11
xwOBA 2026
0.299
0.312
0.274
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.009
-0.007
-0.029
xERA 2025
—
3.19
3.48
xwOBA 2025
—
0.279
0.291
Outs/TB 25-26
1.75
2.21
2.56
FIP 25-26
4.38
4.21
3.37
kwERA 25-26
1.40
3.49
3.18
K% 25-26
37.0%
25.4%
23.9%
BB% 25-26
3.7%
9.5%
5.4%
IP 25+26 combined
7.0
121.0
303.3
ERA actual 2026
3.86
3.34
2.88
ERA (L4)
—
9.82
3.38
WHIP (L4)
—
1.91
0.88
K% (L4)
—
22.2%
25.0%
BB% (L4)
—
5.6%
4.3%
IP/gm (L4)
—
0.92
6.00
L4 window
—
09/03→09/09 (4 outs) · 4/4 dates verified
08/19→09/05 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
—
115 (+10)
112 (+2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
—
5.89 (+1.69)
3.39 (+0.02)
Arsenal RV/100
0.70
0.57
1.42
away arsenal · BULK AJ Blubaugh — HOU
RV/100 0.57
4-Seam Fastball—+0.60xwOBA 0.334
Sweeper—+1.80xwOBA 0.272
Changeup—-0.80xwOBA 0.281
home arsenal — TB
RV/100 1.42
Cutter—+1.00xwOBA 0.287
4-Seam Fastball—+0.90xwOBA 0.278
Sinker—+2.70xwOBA 0.265
Changeup—+2.30xwOBA 0.193
Curveball—+0.80xwOBA 0.401
Sweeper—-2.80xwOBA 0.424
away · HOU vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.677
Σ match
2.445
Σ FRV
-8.5
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
DH
Jose Altuve
0.274
0.258
-9.5
2
SS
Jeremy Peña
0.323
0.311
-3.5
3
3B
Isaac Paredes
0.322
0.302
+0.7
4
CF
Daulton Varsho
0.290
0.251
+4.1
5
C
Yainer Diaz
0.302
0.262
-4.8
6
1B
Christian Walker
0.303
0.264
+4.4
7
RF
Cam Smith
0.325
0.289
+2.2
8
LF
Taylor Trammell
0.286
0.276
-1.6
9
2B
Nick Allen
0.252
0.230
-0.5
home · TB vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.835
Σ match
2.824
Σ FRV
+9.1
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
DH
Yandy Díaz
0.355
0.341
—
2
1B
Jonathan Aranda
0.348
0.349
-0.7
3
3B
Junior Caminero
0.363
0.372
-8.3
4
C
Liam Hicks
0.318
0.317
+1.8
5
RF
Victor Mesa Jr.
0.322
0.313
+9.1
6
LF
Chandler Simpson
0.264
0.258
+3.6
7
CF
Cedric Mullins
0.267
0.264
+9.1
8
2B
Richie Palacios
0.305
0.323
-4.5
9
SS
Jorge Mateo
0.293
0.287
-1.0
defense · HOU catcher (Savant FRV)
Yainer Diaz
FRV-4.8
framing-4.5
blocking-0.2
throwing-0.2
defense · TB catcher (Savant FRV)
Liam Hicks
FRV+1.8
framing-0.3
blocking-0.3
throwing+1.5
HOU · AJ Blubaugh
Last outing 2026-09-09 vs Philadelphia Phillies · 0.1 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
105
106(+1)
115
Location+
96
87(-9)
92
Pitching+
99
98(-1)
105
botStf
56
60(+4)
62
botCmd
52
45(-7)
55
botOvr
55
54(-1)
58
SIERA
4.20
7.29(+3.09)
5.89
Last 3 outings: 2026-09-05 → 2026-09-09. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.01
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-09; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
TB · Drew Rasmussen
Last outing 2026-09-05 vs TEX · 7.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
110
106(-4)
112
Location+
107
108(+1)
112
Pitching+
114
114(+0)
121
botStf
54
50(-4)
53
botCmd
56
58(+2)
58
botOvr
60
61(+0)
62
SIERA
3.37
3.40(+0.03)
3.39
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-24 → 2026-09-05. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 2.90
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-05; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
0.093 R/PA · 0.132 R/out · worst: Alex Cook (5.40)
HOU
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Josh Hader
CLOSER
CL
1.59
35.8
7.3
0.91
25/0/14
stable
Bryan Abreu
CLOSER
SU
4.40
30.2
16.1
0.92
8/14/21
stable
Enyel De Los Santos
SETUP
MR
3.64
22.2
6.5
1.07
5/10/13
stable
AJ Blubaugh
SETUP
SU
4.14
24.4
9.8
1.68
1/10/6
ramping up
Bryan King
SETUP
MR
4.78
17.9
7.7
1.07
6/12/11
stable
Miguel Ullola
MR
MR
4.38
37.0
3.7
2.00
0/0/1
insufficient data
Bennett Sousa
MOP_UP
MR
4.41
23.2
13.4
0.67
0/9/2
stable
Tatsuya Imai
SP
LR
4.43
28.0
15.4
3.86
0/0/0
ramping down
TB
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Bryan Baker
CLOSER
CL
3.06
27.3
9.1
0.96
39/2/28
stable
Kevin Kelly
SETUP
SU
3.27
21.0
4.3
1.10
4/30/9
stable
Tyler Wells
SETUP
SU
3.42
25.6
6.3
1.26
6/15/13
stable
Casey Legumina
OPENER
MR
3.54
17.7
6.1
1.25
0/7/7
stable
Cole Sulser
OPENER
MR
3.86
23.4
7.2
1.11
2/11/9
stable
Steven Matz
SWING
LR
5.15
17.1
7.6
3.53
1/1/1
ramping down
Cam Booser
MR
MR
3.18
29.6
4.4
1.11
0/10/5
stable
Ty Johnson
unknown
MR
3.09
37.5
25.0
—
0/0/0
—
Alex Cook
unknown
MR
7.18
11.8
11.8
—
0/0/0
—
glossary
Pitcher metrics
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.