Friday · September 11, 2026·full·gamePk 822767free Saturday
refreshed 343h 14m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Rogers Centre
gametime 7:07 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
67°F
humidity 62%
wind
5 mph
cross LF to RF
precip
0%
clear
park
TOR
retractable · HP→CF 0°
wind impact on total
neutralnone cross
Cross wind, but too light to move the total.
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Chris BassittRHP · BAL
Max ScherzerRHP · TOR
xERA 2026
5.05
4.21
xwOBA 2026
0.343
0.316
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
0.011
0.017
xERA 2025
4.16
4.64
xwOBA 2025
0.316
0.332
Outs/TB 25-26
1.81
1.64
FIP 25-26
4.17
5.27
kwERA 25-26
3.87
3.87
K% 25-26
20.3%
20.7%
BB% 25-26
7.5%
7.9%
IP 25+26 combined
255.7
147.7
ERA actual 2026
4.96
6.03
ERA (L4)
4.56
4.98
WHIP (L4)
1.48
1.15
K% (L4)
20.4%
18.7%
BB% (L4)
7.8%
11.0%
IP/gm (L4)
5.92
5.42
L4 window
08/19→09/05 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/19→09/05 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
102 (+6)
96 (+2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
4.61 (−0.33)
4.97 (−0.53)
Arsenal RV/100
-0.74
-0.42
away arsenal — BAL
RV/100 -0.74
Sinker—-0.30xwOBA 0.351
Curveball—-0.20xwOBA 0.303
Cutter—-2.00xwOBA 0.396
4-Seam Fastball—-4.30xwOBA 0.423
Sweeper—+1.90xwOBA 0.249
Changeup—-1.10xwOBA 0.392
Slider—+2.40xwOBA 0.238
home arsenal — TOR
RV/100 -0.42
4-Seam Fastball—+0.70xwOBA 0.345
Slider—-4.70xwOBA 0.349
Changeup—-0.50xwOBA 0.242
Curveball—+0.80xwOBA 0.282
Cutter—+0.90xwOBA 0.293
away · BAL vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.853
Σ match
2.982
Σ FRV
-6.6
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
LF
Dylan Beavers
0.298
0.310
-6.8
2
1B
Pete Alonso
0.394
0.417
-3.4
3
2B
Jackson Holliday
0.303
0.302
-3.0
4
DH
Coby Mayo
0.326
0.344
-1.9
5
SS
Gunnar Henderson
0.314
0.304
+1.3
6
C
Samuel Basallo
0.320
0.326
-2.2
7
3B
Christian Encarnacion-Strand
0.345
0.344
+2.2
8
RF
Heston Kjerstad
0.236
0.298
-0.1
9
CF
Colton Cowser
0.317
0.336
+7.3
home · TOR vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.677
Σ match
3.009
Σ FRV
+29.4
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
CF
Brett Bateman
0.304
0.342
+3.2
2
DH
George Springer
0.305
0.358
-0.3
3
1B
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
0.333
0.383
+5.4
4
C
Alejandro Kirk
0.303
0.337
+9.6
5
RF
Nathan Lukes
0.288
0.306
+6.3
6
3B
Kazuma Okamoto
0.322
0.340
-2.8
7
LF
Josh Smith
0.285
0.332
-3.7
8
SS
Andrés Giménez
0.274
0.318
+15.1
9
2B
Ernie Clement
0.263
0.294
-3.4
defense · BAL catcher (Savant FRV)
Samuel Basallo
FRV-2.2
framing-4.6
blocking+0.8
throwing+2.1
defense · TOR catcher (Savant FRV)
Alejandro Kirk
FRV+9.6
framing+7.0
blocking+3.3
throwing-0.7
BAL · Chris Bassitt
Last outing 2026-09-05 vs BOS · 5.2 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
97
99(+2)
102
Location+
99
96(-4)
97
Pitching+
96
95(-1)
97
botStf
46
49(+3)
47
botCmd
54
54(+0)
55
botOvr
53
50(-3)
54
SIERA
4.94
4.97(+0.03)
4.61
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-25 → 2026-09-05. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.76
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-05; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
TOR · Max Scherzer
Last outing 2026-09-05 vs KC · 5.2 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
94
93(-1)
96
Location+
104
100(-5)
103
Pitching+
98
91(-7)
97
botStf
49
47(-3)
49
botCmd
54
58(+4)
54
botOvr
51
53(+1)
51
SIERA
5.49
6.06(+0.57)
4.97
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-25 → 2026-09-05. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.28
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-05; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
BAL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera
0.39R / inningband [0.35–0.44]
0.092 R/PA · 0.131 R/out · worst: Luis De León (4.60)
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.