Friday · September 11, 2026·full·gamePk 822684free Saturday
refreshed 344h 18m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Nationals Park
gametime 6:45 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
79°F
humidity 67%
wind
4 mph
in from CF
precip
0%
mostly clear
park
WSH
open · HP→CF 30°
wind impact on total
-0.13 R/Gminor in
Minor wind in: -0.13 R/G vs neutral. _Nationals Park has noticeable wind variability — open bowl on Anacostia, weather matters_
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Yusei KikuchiLHP · LAA
Cade CavalliRHP · WSH
xERA 2026
5.16
3.71
xwOBA 2026
0.346
0.298
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
0.007
-0.002
xERA 2025
4.48
4.13
xwOBA 2025
0.327
0.315
Outs/TB 25-26
1.80
2.09
FIP 25-26
4.22
3.58
kwERA 25-26
3.82
3.15
K% 25-26
22.6%
25.6%
BB% 25-26
9.4%
6.9%
IP 25+26 combined
227.3
207.3
ERA actual 2026
4.96
3.12
ERA (L4)
3.50
1.64
WHIP (L4)
1.28
0.77
K% (L4)
21.6%
40.0%
BB% (L4)
6.8%
5.9%
IP/gm (L4)
6.00
5.50
L4 window
08/23→09/05 (3 st) · 3/3 dates verified
08/19→09/05 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
98 (+1)
99 (−3)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
4.06 (−0.47)
2.52 (−1.09)
Arsenal RV/100
-0.41
0.37
away arsenal — LAA
RV/100 -0.41
4-Seam Fastball—+0.10xwOBA 0.287
Slider—-1.20xwOBA 0.371
Split-Finger—-0.50xwOBA 0.356
Curveball—+2.70xwOBA 0.266
Cutter—-4.50xwOBA 0.581
home arsenal — WSH
RV/100 0.37
4-Seam Fastball—-0.70xwOBA 0.334
Curveball—+0.90xwOBA 0.243
Sweeper—+2.00xwOBA 0.236
Sinker—+0.30xwOBA 0.344
Changeup—-1.10xwOBA 0.349
Cutter—+2.00xwOBA 0.352
away · LAA vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.667
Σ match
2.569
Σ FRV
-5.4
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
SS
Zach Neto
0.311
0.300
-1.3
2
CF
Mike Trout
0.375
0.352
-2.8
3
LF
Wade Meckler
0.315
0.301
+1.2
4
1B
Vaughn Grissom
0.312
0.307
-4.5
5
C
Moisés Ballesteros
0.291
0.273
-1.0
6
2B
Christian Moore
0.245
0.254
-1.7
7
RF
Josh Lowe
0.292
0.283
+5.1
8
3B
Denzer Guzman
0.270
0.248
+1.0
9
DH
Adam Frazier
0.256
0.250
-1.4
home · WSH vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.965
Σ match
3.231
Σ FRV
-16.2
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
RF
James Wood
0.415
0.444
-8.5
2
DH
Andrés Chaparro
0.342
0.389
-3.7
3
3B
Brady House
0.335
0.352
-2.3
4
SS
CJ Abrams
0.327
0.356
-12.3
5
LF
Dylan Crews
0.312
0.347
+1.1
6
1B
Yohandy Morales
0.329
0.331
-0.1
7
C
Harry Ford
0.289
0.325
-1.7
8
2B
Jorbit Vivas
0.300
0.326
+2.7
9
CF
Jacob Young
0.316
0.361
+8.5
defense · LAA catcher (Savant FRV)
Moisés Ballesteros
FRV-1.0
framing-1.2
blocking-0.4
throwing+0.5
defense · WSH catcher (Savant FRV)
Harry Ford
FRV-1.7
framing-0.3
blocking-0.7
throwing-0.7
LAA · Yusei Kikuchi
Last outing 2026-09-05 vs PIT · 6.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
97
103(+7)
98
Location+
100
107(+6)
101
Pitching+
99
108(+9)
98
botStf
54
58(+4)
55
botCmd
52
60(+8)
56
botOvr
52
61(+9)
55
SIERA
4.53
4.38(-0.15)
4.06
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-23 → 2026-09-05. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 2.87
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-05; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
WSH · Cade Cavalli
Last outing 2026-09-05 vs LAD · 6.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
102
99(-3)
99
Location+
97
121(+24)
112
Pitching+
98
120(+22)
112
botStf
53
55(+3)
55
botCmd
51
59(+8)
58
botOvr
52
58(+6)
57
SIERA
3.61
1.09(-2.51)
2.52
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-24 → 2026-09-05. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.40
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-05; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
LAA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.38R / inningband [0.30–0.46]
0.090 R/PA · 0.127 R/out · worst: Luke Murphy (4.18)
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.