Thursday · September 10, 2026·full·gamePk 824872free Saturday
refreshed 375h 55m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Truist Park
gametime 12:15 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
83°F
humidity 64%
wind
5 mph
cross LF to RF
precip
0%
overcast
park
ATL
open · HP→CF 63°
wind impact on total
+0.01 R/Gnone cross
Cross wind, but too light to move the total.
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Nick MartinezRHP · TB
Martín PérezLHP · ATL
xERA 2026
4.21
4.76
xwOBA 2026
0.316
0.334
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.022
-0.032
xERA 2025
4.04
5.37
xwOBA 2025
0.312
0.354
Outs/TB 25-26
1.91
2.26
FIP 25-26
4.14
4.29
kwERA 25-26
4.09
4.41
K% 25-26
15.9%
18.4%
BB% 25-26
5.0%
10.1%
IP 25+26 combined
325.7
180.7
ERA actual 2026
3.04
3.25
ERA (L4)
4.91
4.91
WHIP (L4)
1.18
1.96
K% (L4)
18.7%
15.4%
BB% (L4)
4.4%
12.1%
IP/gm (L4)
5.50
4.58
L4 window
08/18→09/04 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/17→09/05 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
97 (−1)
88 (+2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
4.25 (−0.53)
5.70 (+1.32)
Arsenal RV/100
0.74
0.32
away arsenal — TB
RV/100 0.74
Sinker—+0.80xwOBA 0.347
Changeup—+1.70xwOBA 0.228
Cutter—+1.80xwOBA 0.335
4-Seam Fastball—-0.60xwOBA 0.332
Curveball—-1.10xwOBA 0.463
Slider—-6.10xwOBA 0.483
home arsenal — ATL
RV/100 0.32
Sinker—+0.60xwOBA 0.365
Changeup—+0.90xwOBA 0.281
Cutter—-0.20xwOBA 0.354
Curveball—+0.20xwOBA 0.347
4-Seam Fastball—-3.00xwOBA 0.389
away · TB vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.719
Σ match
2.923
Σ FRV
+9.1
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
DH
Yandy Díaz
0.356
0.359
—
2
1B
Ryan Vilade
0.335
0.369
-3.2
3
3B
Junior Caminero
0.364
0.390
-8.5
4
RF
Jonny DeLuca
0.265
0.292
+8.7
5
LF
Chandler Simpson
0.263
0.274
+3.4
6
2B
Nick Madrigal
0.298
0.320
+1.3
7
SS
Jorge Mateo
0.297
0.327
-1.0
8
C
Nick Fortes
0.274
0.294
-0.6
9
CF
Cedric Mullins
0.267
0.298
+9.1
home · ATL vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.916
Σ match
3.044
Σ FRV
+11.4
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
C
Drake Baldwin
0.366
0.386
-0.3
2
RF
Ronald Acuña Jr.
0.364
0.391
-4.6
3
1B
Matt Olson
0.353
0.376
+8.1
4
CF
Michael Harris II
0.339
0.350
+11.4
5
2B
Mauricio Dubón
0.305
0.326
+4.1
6
LF
Lane Thomas
0.311
0.332
-3.6
7
3B
Austin Riley
0.298
0.304
-1.4
8
DH
Brewer Hicklen
0.368
0.339
-0.5
9
SS
Ha-Seong Kim
0.212
0.239
-1.7
defense · TB catcher (Savant FRV)
Nick Fortes
FRV-0.6
framing-1.0
blocking+0.1
throwing+0.3
defense · ATL catcher (Savant FRV)
Drake Baldwin
FRV-0.3
framing+2.6
blocking+0.2
throwing-3.1
TB · Nick Martinez
Last outing 2026-09-04 vs TEX · 6.1 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
99
94(-4)
97
Location+
107
112(+5)
112
Pitching+
104
99(-5)
104
botStf
48
45(-3)
47
botCmd
61
64(+3)
62
botOvr
56
60(+3)
57
SIERA
4.77
4.88(+0.10)
4.25
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-23 → 2026-09-04. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.03
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-04; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
ATL · Martín Pérez
Last outing 2026-09-05 vs PHI · 3.2 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
86
93(+6)
88
Location+
102
94(-8)
95
Pitching+
92
86(-6)
85
botStf
42
46(+4)
44
botCmd
56
52(-5)
50
botOvr
48
43(-5)
44
SIERA
4.38
6.99(+2.61)
5.70
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-22 → 2026-09-05. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 5.91
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-05; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
TB · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.39R / inningband [0.30–0.49]
0.093 R/PA · 0.131 R/out · worst: Alex Cook (5.40)
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.