Thursday · September 10, 2026·full·gamePk 824550free Saturday
refreshed 369h 10m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Rate Field
gametime 7:40 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
68°F
humidity 78%
wind
5 mph
in from CF
precip
0%
overcast
park
CWS
open · HP→CF 38°
wind impact on total
-0.16 R/Gminor in
Minor wind in: -0.16 R/G vs neutral. _Open bowl on south side; Chicago summer wind off the lake can swirl_
opener / bulk pattern
CWS: Hagen Smith opens → bulk: Erick Fedde· predicted bulk based on 2/8 prior short outings
both opener + bulk shown side-by-side below — lineup matchup keys to the bulk pitcher (who batters see for most of the game)
openers + bulk pitchers · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Jared JonesRHP · PIT
Hagen SmithLHP · opener · CWS
Erick FeddeRHP · bulk · CWS
xERA 2026
3.63
2.88
4.64
xwOBA 2026
0.295
0.264
0.330
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
0.017
-0.055
-0.001
xERA 2025
—
—
5.37
xwOBA 2025
—
—
0.354
Outs/TB 25-26
1.89
5.33
1.78
FIP 25-26
3.88
2.90
5.14
kwERA 25-26
3.09
2.88
4.79
K% 25-26
27.6%
37.1%
14.7%
BB% 25-26
8.4%
16.1%
9.7%
IP 25+26 combined
78.7
16.0
269.3
ERA actual 2026
4.46
0.56
4.00
ERA (L4)
2.75
0.00
2.79
WHIP (L4)
1.32
1.00
1.03
K% (L4)
32.1%
32.3%
18.2%
BB% (L4)
10.7%
12.9%
6.5%
IP/gm (L4)
4.92
2.00
4.83
L4 window
08/15→09/04 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/25→09/06 (4 outs) · 4/4 dates verified
07/26→09/04 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
103 (+2)
112 (+4)
89 (−0)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
3.81 (−0.17)
1.90 (−1.93)
4.44 (−0.53)
Arsenal RV/100
-0.07
2.73
-0.26
away arsenal — PIT
RV/100 -0.07
4-Seam Fastball—-0.20xwOBA 0.334
Slider—+0.70xwOBA 0.251
Changeup—-1.60xwOBA 0.296
Curveball—-0.50xwOBA 0.272
home arsenal · BULK Erick Fedde — CWS
RV/100 -0.26
Sweeper—+1.00xwOBA 0.291
Sinker—-0.40xwOBA 0.354
Cutter—-1.20xwOBA 0.383
Changeup—-2.30xwOBA 0.324
away · PIT vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.905
Σ match
3.026
Σ FRV
-6.1
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
DH
Konnor Griffin
0.305
0.326
-3.8
2
CF
Oneil Cruz
0.350
0.381
+1.6
3
LF
Bryan Reynolds
0.361
0.392
-3.4
4
3B
Nick Gonzales
0.326
0.336
-9.7
5
2B
Brandon Lowe
0.324
0.327
+11.0
6
C
Rafael Flores Jr.
0.356
0.347
-0.4
7
RF
Jake Mangum
0.284
0.301
+2.5
8
1B
Spencer Horwitz
0.310
0.307
-4.2
9
SS
Jared Triolo
0.289
0.310
+0.2
home · CWS vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.893
Σ match
2.701
Σ FRV
+10.6
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
LF
Sam Antonacci
0.339
0.316
-8.3
2
3B
Miguel Vargas
0.382
0.347
-4.8
3
1B
Munetaka Murakami
0.345
0.340
-2.3
4
DH
Andrew Benintendi
0.314
0.295
-1.6
5
SS
Colson Montgomery
0.302
0.256
+9.1
6
RF
Braden Montgomery
0.331
0.342
+0.9
7
2B
Chase Meidroth
0.292
0.274
+9.8
8
CF
Tristan Peters
0.319
0.299
+9.3
9
C
Jake Rogers
0.269
0.233
-1.5
defense · PIT catcher (Savant FRV)
Rafael Flores Jr.
FRV-0.4
framing+0.3
blocking-0.3
throwing-1.0
defense · CWS catcher (Savant FRV)
Jake Rogers
FRV-1.5
framing-0.9
blocking-1.5
throwing+0.8
PIT · Jared Jones
Last outing 2026-09-04 vs LAA · 6.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
101
104(+4)
103
Location+
104
117(+13)
100
Pitching+
107
122(+15)
104
botStf
58
60(+3)
59
botCmd
53
60(+7)
51
botOvr
56
62(+6)
55
SIERA
3.99
1.66(-2.33)
3.81
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-22 → 2026-09-04. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 2.69
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-04; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
CWS · Erick Fedde
Last outing 2026-09-04 vs MIN · 5.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
89
89(-1)
89
Location+
108
107(-2)
112
Pitching+
100
100(+1)
103
botStf
50
53(+3)
50
botCmd
56
51(-5)
56
botOvr
53
50(-3)
53
SIERA
4.97
6.58(+1.61)
4.44
Last 3 starts: 2026-07-31 → 2026-09-04. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.76
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-04; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.