Thursday · September 10, 2026·full·gamePk 823499free Saturday
refreshed 369h 10m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Yankee Stadium
gametime 7:05 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
83°F
humidity 43%
wind
5 mph
out to CF
precip
0%
clear
park
NYY
open · HP→CF 75°
wind impact on total
+0.14 R/Gminor out
Minor wind out: +0.14 R/G vs neutral. _Short RF porch is the story regardless of wind; cross winds barely matter, wind-out to RF supercharges short HR_
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Ryan FeltnerRHP · COL
Max FriedLHP · NYY
xERA 2026
5.23
2.54
xwOBA 2026
0.348
0.248
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
0.024
-0.006
xERA 2025
3.31
3.38
xwOBA 2025
0.284
0.287
Outs/TB 25-26
1.52
2.67
FIP 25-26
5.07
2.93
kwERA 25-26
4.50
3.39
K% 25-26
17.3%
23.6%
BB% 25-26
9.8%
6.9%
IP 25+26 combined
137.0
291.0
ERA actual 2026
5.91
2.73
ERA (L4)
7.84
1.31
WHIP (L4)
1.98
1.02
K% (L4)
15.7%
24.4%
BB% (L4)
12.7%
7.7%
IP/gm (L4)
5.17
5.17
L4 window
08/12→09/04 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/07→09/04 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
89 (−3)
108 (+2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
5.21 (+0.17)
4.09 (+0.32)
Arsenal RV/100
-1.13
1.43
away arsenal — COL
RV/100 -1.13
4-Seam Fastball—-1.70xwOBA 0.421
Slider—-1.30xwOBA 0.413
Changeup—+0.80xwOBA 0.184
Sinker—+0.50xwOBA 0.304
Sweeper—-3.90xwOBA 0.350
Curveball—-2.70xwOBA 0.437
home arsenal — NYY
RV/100 1.43
Cutter—+2.40xwOBA 0.235
Sinker—+1.50xwOBA 0.266
4-Seam Fastball—-0.40xwOBA 0.275
Curveball—+1.50xwOBA 0.207
Changeup—+1.30xwOBA 0.249
Sweeper—+2.50xwOBA 0.219
away · COL vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.726
Σ match
2.223
Σ FRV
+3.6
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
LF
Jake McCarthy
0.322
0.259
-1.0
2
2B
Connor Norby
0.303
0.245
-0.9
3
C
Hunter Goodman
0.322
0.262
-1.0
4
1B
TJ Rumfield
0.335
0.265
+5.6
5
CF
Cole Carrigg
0.316
0.248
+1.7
6
3B
Kyle Karros
0.337
0.260
+0.3
7
DH
Adael Amador
0.273
0.263
+0.1
8
RF
Jordan Beck
0.243
0.197
-1.7
9
SS
Ezequiel Tovar
0.275
0.224
+0.6
home · NYY vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.840
Σ match
3.221
Σ FRV
+15.6
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
DH
Ben Rice
0.374
0.444
-4.1
2
LF
Cody Bellinger
0.340
0.390
+9.9
3
RF
Jasson Domínguez
0.291
0.328
-1.8
4
1B
Luis García Jr.
0.351
0.417
+0.9
5
CF
Spencer Jones
0.329
0.359
-1.9
6
SS
George Lombard Jr.
0.274
0.309
-0.5
7
3B
Ryan McMahon
0.301
0.336
+2.3
8
C
Austin Wells
0.290
0.307
+5.8
9
2B
Anthony Volpe
0.290
0.333
+5.2
defense · COL catcher (Savant FRV)
Hunter Goodman
FRV-1.0
framing+0.2
blocking-0.4
throwing-0.8
defense · NYY catcher (Savant FRV)
Austin Wells
FRV+5.8
framing+5.8
blocking+1.4
throwing-1.5
COL · Ryan Feltner
Last outing 2026-09-04 vs STL · 5.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
92
89(-3)
89
Location+
97
87(-10)
90
Pitching+
93
78(-15)
82
botStf
49
48(-1)
48
botCmd
50
47(-4)
49
botOvr
49
46(-4)
48
SIERA
5.04
4.82(-0.22)
5.21
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-18 → 2026-09-04. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 5.47
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-04; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
NYY · Max Fried
Last outing 2026-09-04 vs SD · 5.2 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
107
106(-0)
108
Location+
101
101(+0)
98
Pitching+
110
107(-2)
105
botStf
53
52(-1)
52
botCmd
51
56(+5)
52
botOvr
53
55(+2)
52
SIERA
3.77
4.20(+0.42)
4.09
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-13 → 2026-09-04. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.87
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-04; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
COL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.48R / inningband [0.44–0.52]
0.113 R/PA · 0.160 R/out · worst: Juan Mejia (4.60)
NYY · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera
0.44R / inningband [0.36–0.52]
0.104 R/PA · 0.147 R/out · worst: Tim Hill (4.75)
COL
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Jordan Romano
CLOSER
CL
3.52
24.8
12.0
0.79
15/1/13
stable
Jaden Hill
SETUP
MR
4.22
22.6
13.2
0.83
2/13/4
stable
Juan Mejia
SETUP
SU
4.49
19.6
12.9
1.10
4/9/16
stable
Brennan Bernardino
OPENER
SU
3.74
17.1
6.2
0.86
1/12/7
stable
Jimmy Herget
OPENER
MR
5.37
20.0
11.5
0.99
3/10/10
stable
Zach Agnos
SWING
MR
4.46
14.9
7.9
2.28
2/1/10
stable
Blas Castaño
MR
LR
4.80
19.4
7.1
2.07
0/0/2
stable
Nick Frasso
unknown
MR
2.36
21.5
7.7
—
0/0/0
—
Mark Manfredi
unknown
MR
2.39
28.3
13.0
—
0/0/0
—
NYY
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
David Bednar
CLOSER
CL
2.43
28.0
7.2
1.10
32/0/35
stable
Brent Headrick
SETUP
SU
2.16
30.7
7.1
1.01
0/26/6
stable
John Schreiber
SETUP
MR
4.77
17.5
11.1
0.91
1/14/5
stable
Tim Hill
SETUP
MR
5.59
10.9
5.5
0.84
2/10/6
stable
Paul Blackburn
OPENER
SU
3.71
21.4
9.4
1.53
1/10/13
stable
Ryan Yarbrough
MR
MR
3.77
17.3
9.3
1.59
3/1/14
stable
Michael Fulmer
unknown
MR
4.31
25.0
12.5
—
0/2/0
—
glossary
Pitcher metrics
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.
Post-game
actual vs projected
Final total
13
3 COL · 10 NYY
Projected total
—
Delta
—
actual − projected
Band cover
—
COL
3 R
8H · 1HR · 5BB · 12K · 24LOB
OBPe 0.317 · SLGe 0.389 · K% 29.3
Their pitching
8.0 IP · 10 ER · 5 K · relief 3.0 IP · 3 arms
NYY
10 R
11H · 2HR · 5BB · 5K · 16LOB
OBPe 0.400 · SLGe 0.559 · K% 12.5
Their pitching
9.0 IP · 2 ER · 12 K · relief 5.7 IP · 6 arms
COL · standout lines
big nights
Jake McCarthy (CF) · 2-5 | 3B, K, RBI4 TB
Kyle Karros (3B) · 1-4 | HR, 3 K, RBIHR
tough nights
Connor Norby (2B) · 0-3 | BB, 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K
Hunter Goodman (C) · 0-5 | K0-for-5
TJ Rumfield (1B) · 0-4 | BB, K0-for-4
NYY · standout lines
big nights
Cody Bellinger (LF) · 2-3 | 2 2B, K, RBI4 TB
Luis García Jr. (1B) · 1-5 | HR, 2 RBI, RHR
Spencer Jones (CF) · 3-4 | 2 RBI, R3 H
Anthony Volpe (2B) · 3-4 | HR, 5 RBI, RHR · 3 H · 5 RBI