Thursday · September 10, 2026·full·gamePk 823413free Saturday
refreshed 375h 7m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Citizens Bank Park
gametime 1:05 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
88°F
humidity 55%
wind
10 mph
cross RF to LF
precip
0%
overcast
park
PHI
open · HP→CF 16°
wind impact on total
+0.08 R/Gnone cross
Cross wind, but too light to move the total.
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Cristian JavierRHP · HOU
Zack WheelerRHP · PHI
xERA 2026
4.96
3.04
xwOBA 2026
0.340
0.271
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
0.020
0.016
xERA 2025
3.28
2.49
xwOBA 2025
0.283
0.247
Outs/TB 25-26
1.87
2.29
FIP 25-26
4.35
3.30
kwERA 25-26
3.92
2.41
K% 25-26
22.1%
31.6%
BB% 25-26
9.7%
6.7%
IP 25+26 combined
86.7
286.0
ERA actual 2026
5.98
3.23
ERA (L4)
5.00
5.14
WHIP (L4)
1.39
1.52
K% (L4)
29.1%
28.0%
BB% (L4)
8.9%
15.1%
IP/gm (L4)
4.50
5.25
L4 window
08/09→09/04 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/18→09/05 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
104 (+6)
110 (+4)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
2.90 (−2.15)
4.55 (+1.20)
Arsenal RV/100
-0.70
0.68
away arsenal — HOU
RV/100 -0.70
4-Seam Fastball—-0.90xwOBA 0.412
Sweeper—-0.60xwOBA 0.199
Changeup—-1.70xwOBA 0.294
Cutter—+2.70xwOBA 0.387
home arsenal — PHI
RV/100 0.68
4-Seam Fastball—+0.60xwOBA 0.286
Sinker—+1.50xwOBA 0.279
Split-Finger—+1.20xwOBA 0.233
Sweeper—-0.40xwOBA 0.287
Cutter—+0.20xwOBA 0.335
Curveball—+0.90xwOBA 0.172
away · HOU vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.801
Σ match
2.519
Σ FRV
-0.6
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
SS
Jeremy Peña
0.325
0.303
-3.3
2
DH
Yordan Alvarez
0.445
0.399
-2.7
3
3B
Isaac Paredes
0.322
0.290
+0.7
4
2B
Jose Altuve
0.273
0.243
-8.8
5
CF
Daulton Varsho
0.291
0.259
+4.1
6
1B
Christian Walker
0.302
0.261
+4.7
7
RF
Cam Smith
0.321
0.272
+2.5
8
LF
Taylor Trammell
0.284
0.267
-1.7
9
C
Christian Vázquez
0.238
0.225
+3.8
home · PHI vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.804
Σ match
3.067
Σ FRV
-11.0
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
DH
Kyle Schwarber
0.369
0.376
-0.8
2
SS
Trea Turner
0.294
0.324
-7.7
3
RF
Bryce Harper
0.389
0.463
-11.5
4
2B
Luis Arraez
0.306
0.321
+10.3
5
1B
Alec Bohm
0.322
0.335
-5.4
6
3B
Bryson Stott
0.329
0.361
+5.3
7
LF
Brandon Marsh
0.307
0.335
-5.8
8
CF
Justin Crawford
0.280
0.298
-1.4
9
C
Rafael Marchán
0.208
0.254
+5.8
defense · HOU catcher (Savant FRV)
Christian Vázquez
FRV+3.8
framing+6.1
blocking-1.1
throwing-1.2
defense · PHI catcher (Savant FRV)
Rafael Marchán
FRV+5.8
framing+3.6
blocking+1.1
throwing+1.2
HOU · Cristian Javier
Last outing 2026-09-04 vs AZ · 5.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
98
99(+1)
104
Location+
101
115(+14)
107
Pitching+
97
113(+17)
109
botStf
47
49(+2)
50
botCmd
55
58(+3)
57
botOvr
51
55(+4)
56
SIERA
5.05
3.13(-1.92)
2.90
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-18 → 2026-09-04. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.80
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-04; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
PHI · Zack Wheeler
Last outing 2026-09-05 vs ATL · 6.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
105
112(+7)
110
Location+
105
113(+7)
104
Pitching+
112
121(+9)
112
botStf
58
57(-1)
57
botCmd
56
59(+3)
59
botOvr
59
63(+4)
61
SIERA
3.35
2.76(-0.59)
4.55
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-24 → 2026-09-05. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 2.46
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-05; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.