Thursday · September 10, 2026·full·gamePk 823088free Saturday
refreshed 372h 0m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · T-Mobile Park
gametime 4:10 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
68°F
humidity 69%
wind
6 mph
in from RF
precip
0%
overcast
park
SEA
retractable · HP→CF 36°
wind impact on total
-0.02 R/Gnone cross
Cross wind, but too light to move the total.
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Jacob deGromRHP · TEX
Logan GilbertRHP · SEA
xERA 2026
3.55
3.74
xwOBA 2026
0.292
0.299
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.009
-0.002
xERA 2025
3.36
3.09
xwOBA 2025
0.286
0.275
Outs/TB 25-26
2.25
2.05
FIP 25-26
3.43
3.63
kwERA 25-26
2.68
2.63
K% 25-26
28.7%
29.2%
BB% 25-26
6.0%
6.1%
IP 25+26 combined
316.0
296.0
ERA actual 2026
3.96
3.71
ERA (L4)
3.97
6.86
WHIP (L4)
0.84
1.63
K% (L4)
32.1%
26.7%
BB% (L4)
8.3%
10.0%
IP/gm (L4)
5.67
4.92
L4 window
08/20→09/05 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/19→09/04 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
109 (+0)
113 (+3)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
4.04 (+0.59)
3.60 (−0.04)
Arsenal RV/100
0.61
0.47
away arsenal — TEX
RV/100 0.61
4-Seam Fastball—+0.10xwOBA 0.357
Slider—+1.90xwOBA 0.239
Changeup—+0.50xwOBA 0.235
Curveball—-1.10xwOBA 0.292
Sinker—-3.90xwOBA 0.345
home arsenal — SEA
RV/100 0.47
4-Seam Fastball—+0.50xwOBA 0.356
Slider—+1.10xwOBA 0.312
Split-Finger—+0.20xwOBA 0.189
Changeup—+0.50xwOBA 0.264
Sweeper—-0.50xwOBA 0.230
Cutter—-0.50xwOBA 0.335
away · TEX vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.782
Σ match
2.686
Σ FRV
+17.4
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
DH
Joc Pederson
0.342
0.335
-2.2
2
SS
Corey Seager
0.355
0.343
-0.8
3
3B
Ezequiel Duran
0.306
0.288
+13.9
4
RF
Brandon Nimmo
0.351
0.333
-5.3
5
LF
Wyatt Langford
0.315
0.298
+3.0
6
CF
Evan Carter
0.277
0.287
+7.3
7
1B
Jake Burger
0.320
0.306
+4.3
8
2B
Nicky Lopez
0.261
0.243
+0.8
9
C
Danny Jansen
0.255
0.253
-3.5
home · SEA vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.877
Σ match
2.741
Σ FRV
-22.5
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
SS
J.P. Crawford
0.325
0.309
-7.6
2
LF
Randy Arozarena
0.348
0.313
-6.4
3
DH
Dominic Canzone
0.352
0.351
+0.3
4
C
Cal Raleigh
0.314
0.287
-3.6
5
CF
Julio Rodríguez
0.334
0.322
-0.1
6
1B
Josh Naylor
0.313
0.290
+2.7
7
2B
Cole Young
0.316
0.303
-3.5
8
RF
Lazaro Montes
0.340
0.316
-0.3
9
3B
Brock Rodden
0.235
0.248
-4.0
defense · TEX catcher (Savant FRV)
Danny Jansen
FRV-3.5
framing-4.6
blocking+1.9
throwing-0.8
defense · SEA catcher (Savant FRV)
Cal Raleigh
FRV-3.6
framing-3.6
blocking+2.6
throwing-2.7
TEX · Jacob deGrom
Last outing 2026-09-05 vs TB · 6.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
109
110(+1)
109
Location+
108
119(+11)
103
Pitching+
117
126(+9)
113
botStf
57
56(-1)
57
botCmd
59
67(+9)
56
botOvr
61
68(+7)
59
SIERA
3.45
2.33(-1.12)
4.04
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-25 → 2026-09-05. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 1.71
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-05; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
SEA · Logan Gilbert
Last outing 2026-09-04 vs ATH · 4.2 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
110
114(+5)
113
Location+
104
82(-21)
96
Pitching+
112
97(-15)
107
botStf
58
59(+1)
59
botCmd
57
45(-12)
53
botOvr
59
50(-9)
56
SIERA
3.64
2.14(-1.50)
3.60
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-24 → 2026-09-04. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.66
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-04; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
TEX · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.43R / inningband [0.36–0.49]
0.101 R/PA · 0.143 R/out · worst: Robert Garcia (5.40)
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.