Baseball Daily

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today's slate

TOR @ ATH

Wednesday · September 9, 2026·full·gamePk 824956free Saturday

refreshed 398h 15m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Sutter Health Park

gametime 3:05 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

91°F

humidity 23%

wind

8 mph

cross RF to LF

precip

overcast

park

ATH

open · HP→CF 45°

wind impact on total

-0.08 R/Gnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

opener / bulk pattern

TOR: Braydon Fisher opens → bulk: no confident pattern
ATH: Brady Basso opens → bulk: Mason Barnett· predicted bulk based on 2/21 prior short outings

both opener + bulk shown side-by-side below — lineup matchup keys to the bulk pitcher (who batters see for most of the game)

openers + bulk pitchers · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Braydon FisherRHP · TOR	Brady BassoLHP · opener · ATH	Mason BarnettRHP · bulk · ATH
xERA 2026	3.89	3.84	5.29
xwOBA 2026	0.305	0.303	0.350
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.015	0.044	0.038
xERA 2025	3.33	4.16	3.90
xwOBA 2025	0.285	0.316	0.307
Outs/TB 25-26	2.81	1.75	1.51
FIP 25-26	3.70	3.47	6.23
kwERA 25-26	3.60	4.29	4.53
K% 25-26	26.7%	16.0%	19.4%
BB% 25-26	11.7%	6.7%	12.1%
IP 25+26 combined	120.3	45.0	63.0
ERA actual 2026	3.20	4.32	7.08
ERA (L4)	1.93	5.62	11.30
WHIP (L4)	1.29	1.62	2.23
K% (L4)	10.5%	16.2%	14.9%
BB% (L4)	31.6%	2.7%	14.9%
IP/gm (L4)	1.17	2.00	3.58
L4 window	06/17→08/15 (4 st)	07/25→09/01 (4 st)	07/25→08/17 (4 outs)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	102 (+2)	95 (−3)	92 (−5)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.11 (−0.17)	1.75 (−2.26)	4.83 (+0.03)
Arsenal RV/100	0.37	-0.15	-1.70

away arsenal · BULK Braydon Fisher — TOR

RV/100 0.37

Slider—+0.70xwOBA 0.297
Curveball—-0.40xwOBA 0.331
4-Seam Fastball—+0.70xwOBA 0.275

home arsenal · BULK Mason Barnett — ATH

RV/100 -1.70

4-Seam Fastball—-2.00xwOBA 0.387
Slider—+0.70xwOBA 0.315
Sweeper—-3.20xwOBA 0.327
Curveball—-3.70xwOBA 0.340
Changeup—-0.30xwOBA 0.191

away · TOR vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.682

Σ match

2.968

Σ FRV

+42.5

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	RF	Brett Bateman	0.301	0.334	+3.1
2	LF	Charles McAdoo	0.275	0.309	+0.7
3	1B	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	0.333	0.359	+4.8
4	DH	Alejandro Kirk	0.302	0.340	+9.3
5	3B	Kazuma Okamoto	0.324	0.375	-2.2
6	SS	Andrés Giménez	0.274	0.292	+14.3
7	2B	Ernie Clement	0.263	0.285	-3.9
8	C	Brandon Valenzuela	0.312	0.350	+12.0
9	CF	Myles Straw	0.298	0.324	+4.5

home · ATH vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.718

Σ match

2.541

Σ FRV

-22.8

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Henry Bolte	0.315	0.326	+4.9
2	RF	Lawrence Butler	0.318	0.298	-10.9
3	3B	Zack Gelof	0.311	0.260	-0.8
4	LF	Carlos Cortes	0.307	0.283	-5.4
5	1B	Tommy White	0.298	0.309	-2.5
6	DH	Max Muncy	0.288	0.265	-4.8
7	2B	Donovan Walton	0.340	0.289	-5.7
8	C	Brian Serven	0.302	0.306	+0.7
9	SS	Alika Williams	0.239	0.204	+1.8

defense · TOR catcher (Savant FRV)

Brandon Valenzuela

FRV+12.0
framing+8.1
blocking-0.6
throwing+4.7

defense · ATH catcher (Savant FRV)

Brian Serven

FRV+0.7
framing-0.3
blocking+1.3
throwing-0.2

TOR · Braydon Fisher

Last outing 2026-08-16 vs NYY · 1.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	102
Location+	—	—	112
Pitching+	—	—	115
botOvr	—	—	52
SIERA	—	—	4.11

Last 3 starts: 2026-07-01 → 2026-08-15. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-16; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

ATH · Mason Barnett

Last outing 2026-08-17 vs KC · 2.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	92
Location+	—	—	92
Pitching+	—	—	85
botOvr	—	—	51
SIERA	—	—	4.83

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-06 → 2026-08-17. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-17; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

TOR · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)9 arms · kwera

0.44R / inningband [0.36–0.53]

0.105 R/PA · 0.148 R/out · worst: Ricky Tiedemann (5.40)

ATH · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.44R / inningband [0.38–0.51]

0.104 R/PA · 0.147 R/out · worst: Geoff Hartlieb (5.13)

TOR

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Louis Varland	CLOSER	CL	1.89	31.0	7.5	1.11	33/5/31	stable
Paul Sewald	CLOSER	MR	5.25	25.8	6.2	0.91	24/2/33	stable
Tyler Rogers	SETUP	SU	3.24	13.4	7.8	0.97	4/31/6	stable
Mason Fluharty	OPENER	MR	3.70	25.6	10.7	0.76	1/15/5	stable
Braydon Fisher	OPENER	SU	4.19	23.8	13.3	1.05	1/12/7	stable
Spencer Miles	SWING	MR	2.73	23.1	6.0	2.37	2/4/6	ramping up
Joe Mantiply	MR	MR	3.26	22.5	5.6	1.04	0/0/4	ramping down
Brendon Little	MOP_UP	MR	5.37	33.3	18.9	0.95	0/3/2	ramping up
Ricky Tiedemann	unknown	MR	4.70	20.0	20.0	—	0/0/0	—
Michael Lorenzen	SP	LR	5.30	14.6	8.5	4.62	1/0/0	ramping up

ATH

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Luis Medina	SETUP	SU	3.71	28.7	12.2	1.38	0/11/10	stable
Hogan Harris	SETUP	CL	4.00	29.4	13.8	0.93	15/12/13	stable
Brady Basso	MR	MR	3.27	16.6	3.4	1.22	0/3/0	ramping up
Geoff Hartlieb	MR	MR	4.20	13.6	11.4	2.13	0/2/3	ramping down
Seth Johnson	MR	MR	4.52	26.8	15.2	1.13	0/0/4	stable
Elvis Alvarado	MR	CL	4.55	28.2	11.8	1.08	5/9/11	stable
Chris Roycroft	MR	MR	6.55	14.2	9.0	1.28	1/1/6	ramping up
Yunior Tur	MR	MR	9.71	21.3	12.8	2.00	0/0/0	insufficient data
Scott Blewett	unknown	MR	2.10	22.7	7.3	—	0/2/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

0 TOR · 2 ATH

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

TOR

0 R

6H · 0HR · 3BB · 9K · 11LOB

OBPe 0.265 · SLGe 0.226 · K% 26.5

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 2 ER · 5 K · relief 7.0 IP · 6 arms

ATH

2 R

4H · 1HR · 2BB · 5K · 7LOB

OBPe 0.200 · SLGe 0.250 · K% 16.7

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 0 ER · 9 K · relief 5.0 IP · 5 arms

TOR · standout lines

tough nights

Kazuma Okamoto (3B) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K
Brandon Valenzuela (C) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K

ATH · standout lines

big nights

Henry Bolte (LF) · 1-4 | HR, 2 K, RBIHR

tough nights

Lawrence Butler (RF) · 0-40-for-4
Zack Gelof (3B) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K