Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

TB @ ATL

Wednesday · September 9, 2026·full·gamePk 824871free Saturday

refreshed 394h 20m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Truist Park

gametime 7:15 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

88°F

humidity 39%

wind

3 mph

in from LF

precip

clear

park

ATL

open · HP→CF 63°

wind impact on total

-0.07 R/Gnone in

In wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Griffin JaxRHP · TB	Reynaldo LópezRHP · ATL
xERA 2026	4.56	4.63
xwOBA 2026	0.328	0.330
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.014	-0.008
xERA 2025	3.26	10.73
xwOBA 2025	0.282	0.465
Outs/TB 25-26	1.98	1.85
FIP 25-26	3.36	4.46
kwERA 25-26	2.81	4.07
K% 25-26	29.4%	20.4%
BB% 25-26	7.8%	9.4%
IP 25+26 combined	160.3	76.7
ERA actual 2026	3.82	3.64
ERA (L4)	2.79	4.50
WHIP (L4)	1.29	1.45
K% (L4)	28.6%	23.0%
BB% (L4)	7.1%	8.0%
IP/gm (L4)	4.83	5.00
L4 window	07/22→09/02 (4 st)	07/06→07/26 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	104 (−2)	94 (+3)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	2.66 (−0.97)	4.14 (−0.16)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.02	0.12

away arsenal — TB

RV/100 -0.02

Sweeper—+0.60xwOBA 0.309
Changeup—+0.20xwOBA 0.284
Sinker—-0.30xwOBA 0.348
4-Seam Fastball—-1.00xwOBA 0.353
Curveball—+0.90xwOBA 0.247
Cutter—-1.60xwOBA 0.661

home arsenal — ATL

RV/100 0.12

4-Seam Fastball—+1.00xwOBA 0.354
Slider—-1.50xwOBA 0.333
Curveball—+0.30xwOBA 0.239

away · TB vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.830

Σ match

3.068

Σ FRV

+5.8

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Yandy Díaz	0.356	0.387	—
2	1B	Jonathan Aranda	0.349	0.361	-1.1
3	3B	Junior Caminero	0.365	0.414	-8.9
4	C	Liam Hicks	0.318	0.346	+1.5
5	RF	Victor Mesa Jr.	0.311	0.322	+7.7
6	LF	Chandler Simpson	0.262	0.290	+3.3
7	CF	Cedric Mullins	0.267	0.281	+9.1
8	2B	Richie Palacios	0.305	0.345	-4.9
9	SS	Jorge Mateo	0.297	0.323	-1.0

home · ATL vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.878

Σ match

2.996

Σ FRV

+13.2

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Drake Baldwin	0.363	0.391	-0.3
2	RF	Ronald Acuña Jr.	0.364	0.386	-3.9
3	1B	Matt Olson	0.353	0.355	+7.8
4	CF	Michael Harris II	0.340	0.349	+11.4
5	SS	Mauricio Dubón	0.304	0.309	+4.5
6	LF	Mike Yastrzemski	0.308	0.318	-1.5
7	2B	Ozzie Albies	0.283	0.288	-2.6
8	3B	Austin Riley	0.299	0.301	-1.3
9	C	Sean Murphy	0.264	0.298	-0.9

defense · TB catcher (Savant FRV)

Liam Hicks

FRV+1.5
framing-0.1
blocking-0.3
throwing+1.1

defense · ATL catcher (Savant FRV)

Sean Murphy

FRV-0.9
framing-1.0
blocking+0.6
throwing-0.4

TB · Griffin Jax

Last outing 2026-09-02 vs NYM · 2.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	104
Location+	—	—	115
Pitching+	—	—	119
botOvr	—	—	63
SIERA	—	—	2.66

Last 3 starts: 2026-07-28 → 2026-09-02. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-02; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

ATL · Reynaldo López

Last outing 2026-07-26 vs BAL · 5.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	94
Location+	—	—	103
Pitching+	—	—	97
botOvr	—	—	49
SIERA	—	—	4.14

Last 3 starts: 2026-07-11 → 2026-07-26. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-07-26; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

TB · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.39R / inningband [0.29–0.50]

0.092 R/PA · 0.131 R/out · worst: Alex Cook (5.40)

ATL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.34R / inningband [0.28–0.41]

0.081 R/PA · 0.115 R/out · worst: Ray Kerr (3.82)

TB

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Bryan Baker	CLOSER	CL	3.05	27.3	9.1	0.96	39/2/28	stable
Kevin Kelly	SETUP	SU	3.26	21.4	4.4	1.10	4/30/9	stable
Tyler Wells	SETUP	SU	3.41	25.6	6.3	1.26	6/15/13	stable
Casey Legumina	OPENER	MR	3.53	17.8	6.2	1.25	0/7/7	stable
Cole Sulser	OPENER	MR	3.87	23.8	7.3	1.11	2/11/9	stable
Steven Matz	SWING	LR	5.18	17.2	7.4	3.53	1/1/1	ramping down
Cam Booser	MR	MR	3.23	29.5	4.5	1.11	0/10/5	stable
Ty Johnson	unknown	MR	2.08	50.0	25.0	—	0/0/0	—
Alex Cook	unknown	MR	7.17	11.8	11.8	—	0/0/0	—

ATL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Raisel Iglesias	CLOSER	CL	3.20	25.7	7.5	1.04	31/0/29	stable
Dylan Lee	SETUP	SU	2.02	31.4	6.3	0.97	0/30/1	stable
Didier Fuentes	SETUP	SU	2.47	31.8	7.2	1.20	3/16/4	ramping down
Dylan Dodd	SETUP	MR	3.79	26.6	7.9	1.18	1/14/4	ramping down
Brent Suter	OPENER	MR	3.53	20.3	7.1	1.54	0/3/13	stable
Victor Mederos	MR	MR	2.94	23.3	9.2	1.87	1/1/4	ramping up
Ray Kerr	unknown	MR	4.08	15.8	2.6	—	0/1/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

7 TB · 2 ATL

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

TB

7 R

10H · 1HR · 3BB · 6K · 9LOB

OBPe 0.359 · SLGe 0.394 · K% 15.4

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 5 K · relief 4.0 IP · 5 arms

ATL

2 R

3H · 1HR · 3BB · 5K · 5LOB

OBPe 0.188 · SLGe 0.250 · K% 15.6

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 7 ER · 6 K · relief 4.3 IP · 4 arms

TB · standout lines

big nights

Victor Mesa Jr. (RF) · 2-3 | HR, BB, RBIHR

tough nights

Jonathan Aranda (1B) · 0-4 | HBP, 2 K, R0-for-4 · 2 K

ATL · standout lines

big nights

Drake Baldwin (DH) · 1-3 | HR, BB, RBIHR