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today's slate

CLE @ BAL

Wednesday · September 9, 2026·full·gamePk 824791free Saturday

refreshed 393h 43m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Oriole Park at Camden Yards

gametime 6:35 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

86°F

humidity 44%

wind

8 mph

out to LF

precip

clear

park

BAL

open · HP→CF 28°

wind impact on total

+0.23 R/Gminor out

Minor wind out: +0.23 R/G vs neutral. _Inner Harbor breeze — wind in from RF cools HR rate in early season; warmer summer = ball flies_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Foster GriffinLHP · CLE	Shane BazRHP · BAL
xERA 2026	4.26	4.03
xwOBA 2026	0.318	0.310
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.015	0.002
xERA 2025	—	3.88
xwOBA 2025	—	0.306
Outs/TB 25-26	2.00	1.92
FIP 25-26	4.10	3.88
kwERA 25-26	3.56	3.69
K% 25-26	21.6%	22.8%
BB% 25-26	6.2%	8.6%
IP 25+26 combined	160.3	329.7
ERA actual 2026	3.26	3.91
ERA (L4)	2.86	5.06
WHIP (L4)	1.36	1.41
K% (L4)	17.2%	22.8%
BB% (L4)	8.6%	8.7%
IP/gm (L4)	5.50	5.33
L4 window	08/12→09/04 (4 st)	08/12→09/04 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	97 (−0)	95 (−4)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.39 (+0.48)	4.43 (+0.13)
Arsenal RV/100	0.25	0.07

away arsenal — CLE

RV/100 0.25

Cutter—+1.40xwOBA 0.331
4-Seam Fastball—-0.20xwOBA 0.325
Sweeper—-0.30xwOBA 0.344
Changeup—+0.50xwOBA 0.267
Sinker—+1.40xwOBA 0.313
Curveball—-3.50xwOBA 0.361
Split-Finger—-0.10xwOBA 0.220

home arsenal — BAL

RV/100 0.07

4-Seam Fastball—+0.10xwOBA 0.329
Curveball—-0.50xwOBA 0.269
Cutter—+1.10xwOBA 0.337
Sinker—+2.70xwOBA 0.296
Changeup—-2.30xwOBA 0.388

away · CLE vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.843

Σ match

2.905

Σ FRV

+13.6

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Steven Kwan	0.321	0.319	+6.8
2	RF	Chase DeLauter	0.343	0.335	+1.3
3	3B	José Ramírez	0.332	0.334	+2.0
4	LF	Jo Adell	0.326	0.347	-8.5
5	DH	Travis Bazzana	0.301	0.320	-2.3
6	1B	Nathaniel Lowe	0.336	0.348	-2.1
7	2B	Angel Genao	0.281	0.293	+0.9
8	C	Patrick Bailey	0.309	0.319	+5.2
9	SS	Brayan Rocchio	0.294	0.289	+10.3

home · BAL vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.671

Σ match

2.755

Σ FRV

-12.5

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Dylan Beavers	0.298	0.287	-6.7
2	1B	Pete Alonso	0.394	0.385	-2.5
3	DH	Coby Mayo	0.322	0.334	-2.0
4	3B	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	0.349	0.345	+2.1
5	SS	Jackson Holliday	0.302	0.314	-3.7
6	CF	Rece Hinds	0.184	0.246	-0.4
7	2B	Jeremiah Jackson	0.286	0.303	-1.0
8	RF	Leody Taveras	0.271	0.260	-2.8
9	C	Carlos Narváez	0.265	0.281	+4.5

defense · CLE catcher (Savant FRV)

Patrick Bailey

FRV+5.2
framing+4.1
blocking-1.7
throwing+2.9

defense · BAL catcher (Savant FRV)

Carlos Narváez

FRV+4.5
framing+2.1
blocking+2.9
throwing-0.5

CLE · Foster Griffin

Last outing 2026-09-04 vs DET · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	97
Location+	—	—	101
Pitching+	—	—	97
botOvr	—	—	50
SIERA	—	—	4.39

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-18 → 2026-09-04. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-04; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

BAL · Shane Baz

Last outing 2026-09-04 vs BOS · 6.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	95
Location+	—	—	106
Pitching+	—	—	103
botOvr	—	—	51
SIERA	—	—	4.43

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-18 → 2026-09-04. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

CLE · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.31–0.50]

0.095 R/PA · 0.134 R/out · worst: Tim Herrin (4.15)

BAL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.39R / inningband [0.34–0.44]

0.092 R/PA · 0.130 R/out · worst: Luis De León (4.60)

CLE

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Cade Smith	CLOSER	CL	2.36	35.7	8.3	1.05	35/0/37	stable
Erik Sabrowski	SETUP	SU	2.75	37.6	14.6	0.78	1/23/2	stable
Matt Festa	SETUP	MR	3.42	24.7	6.8	0.97	1/7/13	stable
Hunter Gaddis	SETUP	SU	3.78	22.4	9.6	0.86	1/28/2	stable
Tim Herrin	SETUP	MR	4.28	22.2	11.8	0.79	0/15/5	stable
Daniel Espino	MR	MR	2.08	43.6	10.3	1.00	0/0/1	stable
Franco Aleman	MR	MR	3.81	27.9	11.6	1.11	0/3/0	stable
Craig Yoho	MR	MR	4.56	25.5	9.4	1.33	0/2/5	stable
Slade Cecconi	SP	LR	4.65	18.2	7.3	5.21	0/0/0	ramping up

BAL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Yennier Cano	SETUP	SU	2.70	22.3	5.4	0.74	3/13/6	stable
Grant Wolfram	SETUP	MR	2.80	26.2	6.9	0.80	1/12/3	stable
Anthony Nunez	SETUP	MR	3.66	25.8	10.9	1.12	3/7/7	stable
Andrew Kittredge	SETUP	CL	3.91	18.4	5.5	0.87	9/9/11	stable
Rico Garcia	SETUP	CL	4.06	25.9	8.4	0.93	6/18/16	stable
Alex Hoppe	MR	MR	3.14	24.4	10.5	1.14	1/5/13	stable
Cam Sanders	MR	MR	3.39	29.1	15.4	1.00	3/1/5	stable
Josh Walker	MR	MR	3.40	24.2	8.4	1.20	1/3/3	ramping down
Luis De León	unknown	MR	6.36	13.3	6.7	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

5 CLE · 9 BAL

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

CLE

5 R

9H · 2HR · 2BB · 8K · 15LOB

OBPe 0.325 · SLGe 0.444 · K% 20.0

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 8 ER · 10 K · relief 5.7 IP · 4 arms

BAL

9 R

10H · 1HR · 3BB · 10K · 9LOB

OBPe 0.368 · SLGe 0.424 · K% 26.3

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 5 ER · 8 K · relief 3.3 IP · 4 arms

CLE · standout lines

big nights

Chase DeLauter (RF) · 2-5 | HR, 2 RBI, RHR
Nathaniel Lowe (1B) · 1-4 | HR, K, 2 RBIHR

tough nights

José Ramírez (3B) · 0-4 | BB, K0-for-4
Brayan Rocchio (SS) · 0-4 | K0-for-4

BAL · standout lines

big nights

Coby Mayo (DH) · 1-3 | HR, BB, KHR

tough nights

Christian Encarnacion-Strand (3B) · 0-3 | HBP, 2 K, RBI0-for-3 · 2 K