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today's slate

LAA @ BOS

Wednesday · September 9, 2026·full·gamePk 824713free Saturday

refreshed 394h 19m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Fenway Park

gametime 6:45 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

74°F

humidity 69%

wind

12 mph

out to LF

precip

25%

overcast

park

BOS

open · HP→CF 46°

wind impact on total

+0.19 R/Gminor out

Minor wind out: +0.19 R/G vs neutral. _Green Monster blocks LF wind — wind-out games still play big to RF only; foul territory tiny_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Ryan JohnsonRHP · LAA	Jake BennettLHP · BOS
xERA 2026	5.29	3.22
xwOBA 2026	0.350	0.279
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.012	-0.014
xERA 2025	3.53	—
xwOBA 2025	0.293	—
Outs/TB 25-26	1.75	2.41
FIP 25-26	5.81	3.26
kwERA 25-26	4.51	3.49
K% 25-26	17.9%	20.5%
BB% 25-26	10.5%	4.6%
IP 25+26 combined	93.0	99.7
ERA actual 2026	5.17	3.34
ERA (L4)	1.59	5.64
WHIP (L4)	0.93	1.21
K% (L4)	20.7%	25.5%
BB% (L4)	9.2%	5.3%
IP/gm (L4)	5.67	5.58
L4 window	08/11→09/04 (4 st)	08/08→09/03 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	101 (+9)	94 (+1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	5.78 (+0.56)	3.37 (−0.53)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.60	1.24

away arsenal — LAA

RV/100 -0.60

Cutter—+1.10xwOBA 0.331
Split-Finger—+0.50xwOBA 0.243
Sweeper—-1.10xwOBA 0.302
Sinker—-4.50xwOBA 0.510

home arsenal — BOS

RV/100 1.24

4-Seam Fastball—+0.70xwOBA 0.342
Changeup—+1.40xwOBA 0.196
Sinker—+2.50xwOBA 0.266
Sweeper—+0.00xwOBA 0.235
Cutter—+1.60xwOBA 0.300
Curveball—-2.00xwOBA 0.426

away · LAA vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.568

Σ match

2.437

Σ FRV

-2.3

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Zach Neto	0.307	0.296	-1.3
2	CF	Mike Trout	0.375	0.343	-2.8
3	RF	Jose Siri	0.302	0.283	+2.0
4	1B	Vaughn Grissom	0.315	0.292	-4.6
5	DH	Christian Moore	0.249	0.248	-1.8
6	LF	Kyren Paris	0.247	0.270	-1.3
7	2B	Oswald Peraza	0.271	0.249	+0.3
8	3B	Denzer Guzman	0.263	0.228	+0.3
9	C	Tyler Heineman	0.239	0.226	+6.8

home · BOS vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.837

Σ match

3.058

Σ FRV

+16.2

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Roman Anthony	0.352	0.349	-0.3
2	C	Mickey Gasper	0.374	0.379	-2.6
3	RF	Wilyer Abreu	0.347	0.392	+4.6
4	SS	Trevor Story	0.246	0.287	-1.3
5	1B	Nick Sogard	0.321	0.346	+2.1
6	3B	Caleb Durbin	0.291	0.305	+5.0
7	LF	Jarren Duran	0.300	0.364	+3.2
8	2B	Isiah Kiner-Falefa	0.315	0.322	+4.6
9	CF	Nate Eaton	0.291	0.315	+0.9

defense · LAA catcher (Savant FRV)

Tyler Heineman

FRV+6.8
framing+5.0
blocking-0.2
throwing+2.1

defense · BOS catcher (Savant FRV)

Mickey Gasper

FRV-2.6
framing-0.5
blocking-0.0
throwing-1.1

LAA · Ryan Johnson

Last outing 2026-09-04 vs PIT · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	101
Location+	—	—	87
Pitching+	—	—	91
botOvr	—	—	49
SIERA	—	—	5.78

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-16 → 2026-09-04. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-04; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

BOS · Jake Bennett

Last outing 2026-09-03 vs BAL · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	94
Location+	—	—	107
Pitching+	—	—	96
botOvr	—	—	51
SIERA	—	—	3.37

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-14 → 2026-09-03. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-03; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

LAA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.38R / inningband [0.31–0.46]

0.090 R/PA · 0.127 R/out · worst: Luke Murphy (4.18)

BOS · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.35R / inningband [0.28–0.43]

0.083 R/PA · 0.118 R/out · worst: Alec Gamboa (4.14)

LAA

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Samy Natera Jr.	MR	SU	1.84	38.3	10.0	1.16	3/4/3	stable
Tayler Saucedo	MR	MR	2.47	28.8	6.1	0.56	0/6/0	stable
José Fermin	MR	MR	3.91	27.2	10.6	1.11	1/7/7	stable
Ryan Watson	MR	SU	4.10	19.7	7.7	1.61	2/5/21	stable
Mitch Farris	MR	LR	4.81	24.7	11.4	2.12	1/1/6	stable
Ben Joyce	unknown	CL	2.31	33.3	12.8	—	3/2/0	—
Blake Weiman	unknown	MR	2.73	19.6	2.0	—	0/2/0	—
Luke Murphy	unknown	MR	4.01	25.4	15.3	—	0/4/0	—
Sammy Peralta	unknown	MR	5.50	28.3	8.3	—	0/1/0	—

BOS

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Aroldis Chapman	CLOSER	CL	2.51	32.3	10.0	0.96	33/0/27	stable
Garrett Whitlock	SETUP	SU	2.08	30.0	3.9	0.97	3/24/7	stable
Erik Miller	SETUP	SU	2.89	35.2	13.8	0.86	4/13/7	stable
Greg Weissert	SETUP	MR	4.04	24.5	7.9	0.96	1/6/4	stable
Jovani Morán	OPENER	MR	4.48	26.1	12.0	1.53	0/5/6	ramping down
Alec Gamboa	MR	MR	3.16	18.1	7.6	1.60	1/1/5	ramping up
Wyatt Olds	unknown	MR	3.61	33.3	8.3	—	0/0/0	—
Raymond Burgos	unknown	MR	4.19	19.0	1.6	—	1/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

6 LAA · 4 BOS

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

LAA

6 R

12H · 3HR · 2BB · 5K · 6LOB

OBPe 0.417 · SLGe 0.688 · K% 13.9

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 4 ER · 8 K · relief 3.0 IP · 5 arms

BOS

4 R

8H · 2HR · 2BB · 8K · 15LOB

OBPe 0.270 · SLGe 0.400 · K% 21.6

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 6 ER · 5 K · relief 3.7 IP · 4 arms

LAA · standout lines

big nights

Zach Neto (SS) · 2-3 | HR, HBP, 3 RBIHR
Jose Siri (RF) · 2-4 | HR, 2 RBI, RHR
Denzer Guzman (3B) · 3-4 | HR, RBI, 2 RHR · 3 H

tough nights

Vaughn Grissom (1B) · 0-40-for-4
Christian Moore (DH) · 0-3 | BB, 3 K, CS0-for-3 · 3 K

BOS · standout lines

big nights

Roman Anthony (DH) · 1-5 | HR, 3 K, 2 RBIHR
Wilyer Abreu (RF) · 1-3 | HR, BB, RBIHR

tough nights

Mickey Gasper (C) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
Isiah Kiner-Falefa (2B) · 0-40-for-4