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today's slate

PIT @ CWS

Wednesday · September 9, 2026·full·gamePk 824549free Saturday

refreshed 394h 20m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Rate Field

gametime 7:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

73°F

humidity 87%

wind

6 mph

out to CF

precip

overcast

park

CWS

open · HP→CF 38°

wind impact on total

+0.19 R/Gminor out

Minor wind out: +0.19 R/G vs neutral. _Open bowl on south side; Chicago summer wind off the lake can swirl_

opener / bulk pattern

PIT: Lake Bachar opens → bulk: Carmen Mlodzinski· predicted bulk based on 2/41 prior short outings

both opener + bulk shown side-by-side below — lineup matchup keys to the bulk pitcher (who batters see for most of the game)

openers + bulk pitchers · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Lake BacharRHP · opener · PIT	Carmen MlodzinskiRHP · bulk · PIT	Davis MartinRHP · CWS
xERA 2026	3.54	5.01	4.63
xwOBA 2026	0.292	0.342	0.330
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.007	-0.029	-0.009
xERA 2025	4.48	4.07	5.13
xwOBA 2025	0.327	0.313	0.347
Outs/TB 25-26	2.26	1.98	1.91
FIP 25-26	4.44	3.47	4.16
kwERA 25-26	3.58	3.90	4.05
K% 25-26	25.3%	19.5%	18.9%
BB% 25-26	10.1%	7.0%	7.6%
IP 25+26 combined	148.7	212.0	273.3
ERA actual 2026	3.59	3.90	4.13
ERA (L4)	2.08	9.45	4.58
WHIP (L4)	1.62	2.48	1.25
K% (L4)	23.7%	9.9%	16.9%
BB% (L4)	21.1%	11.3%	5.2%
IP/gm (L4)	2.17	3.33	4.42
L4 window	06/19→09/03 (4 st)	05/25→08/17 (4 st)	07/24→09/02 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	91 (−7)	92 (+1)	91 (+0)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	8.23 (+4.43)	4.20 (−0.13)	5.19 (+1.04)
Arsenal RV/100	0.78	-0.01	0.17

away arsenal · BULK Carmen Mlodzinski — PIT

RV/100 -0.01

4-Seam Fastball—-1.00xwOBA 0.373
Split-Finger—+1.40xwOBA 0.277
Sinker—-0.80xwOBA 0.409
Curveball—+0.00xwOBA 0.338
Sweeper—+1.30xwOBA 0.260
Slider—-0.70xwOBA 0.333
Cutter—-1.80xwOBA 0.466

home arsenal — CWS

RV/100 0.17

4-Seam Fastball—-0.30xwOBA 0.313
Sinker—+1.20xwOBA 0.350
Curveball—-0.10xwOBA 0.269
Changeup—+1.70xwOBA 0.338
Slider—-1.40xwOBA 0.301
Cutter—-0.10xwOBA 0.416

away · PIT vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.964

Σ match

3.140

Σ FRV

-13.1

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Konnor Griffin	0.304	0.321	-4.0
2	2B	Brandon Lowe	0.324	0.360	+10.8
3	LF	Bryan Reynolds	0.361	0.385	-3.5
4	DH	Nick Gonzales	0.327	0.347	-9.7
5	CF	Oneil Cruz	0.352	0.379	+1.8
6	RF	Esmerlyn Valdez	0.330	0.349	-2.6
7	1B	Spencer Horwitz	0.311	0.329	-3.6
8	C	Rafael Flores Jr.	0.350	0.354	-0.4
9	3B	Jacob Gonzalez	0.305	0.317	-2.0

home · CWS vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.886

Σ match

3.150

Σ FRV

+12.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	2B	Sam Antonacci	0.340	0.381	-8.4
2	DH	Andrew Benintendi	0.315	0.341	-1.6
3	1B	Munetaka Murakami	0.344	0.376	-2.0
4	LF	Randal Grichuk	0.332	0.350	-1.8
5	3B	Colson Montgomery	0.305	0.334	+8.8
6	RF	Braden Montgomery	0.328	0.368	+0.8
7	CF	Tristan Peters	0.319	0.353	+8.7
8	SS	Chase Meidroth	0.292	0.317	+9.8
9	C	Kyle Teel	0.311	0.329	-1.5

defense · PIT catcher (Savant FRV)

Rafael Flores Jr.

FRV-0.4
framing+0.5
blocking-0.4
throwing-1.0

defense · CWS catcher (Savant FRV)

Kyle Teel

FRV-1.5
framing-1.1
blocking-1.2
throwing+0.8

PIT · Carmen Mlodzinski

Last outing 2026-09-06 vs LAA · 1.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	92
Location+	—	—	104
Pitching+	—	—	95
botOvr	—	—	48
SIERA	—	—	4.20

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-07 → 2026-08-17. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-06; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

CWS · Davis Martin

Last outing 2026-09-02 vs HOU · 5.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	91
Location+	—	—	81
Pitching+	—	—	73
botOvr	—	—	44
SIERA	—	—	5.19

Last 3 starts: 2026-07-29 → 2026-09-02. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-02; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

PIT · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.33–0.46]

0.093 R/PA · 0.132 R/out · worst: Khristian Curtis (5.09)

CWS · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.43R / inningband [0.36–0.50]

0.102 R/PA · 0.144 R/out · worst: Tyler Schweitzer (4.99)

PIT

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Gregory Soto	CLOSER	SU	3.27	27.7	9.6	0.99	14/11/21	stable
Luke Weaver	SETUP	SU	2.67	26.7	7.1	1.05	1/18/4	stable
Yohan Ramírez	SETUP	MR	3.54	27.2	12.8	1.28	2/8/8	stable
Khristian Curtis	BULK	LR	3.45	17.9	15.4	5.00	0/0/0	insufficient data
Mason Montgomery	OPENER	CL	2.30	37.9	9.5	0.97	10/9/7	stable
Brandon Eisert	OPENER	MR	3.97	26.1	7.6	1.05	0/2/5	stable
Lake Bachar	OPENER	MR	4.63	25.2	10.1	1.53	2/1/10	stable
Wilber Dotel	MR	MR	3.08	24.6	10.1	2.13	0/3/1	stable
Camilo Doval	MOP_UP	MR	4.46	23.2	12.2	0.90	1/7/10	stable

CWS

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Sean Newcomb	SETUP	SU	2.88	22.4	8.5	1.51	4/11/6	ramping up
Grant Taylor	OPENER	CL	2.62	32.4	8.7	1.33	8/10/11	stable
Bryan Hudson	OPENER	CL	3.10	22.5	6.7	0.98	7/9/8	stable
Chris Murphy	OPENER	MR	3.92	22.0	11.4	1.05	1/1/6	stable
Jordan Hicks	MR	MR	3.83	28.2	14.9	0.91	1/8/6	stable
Trevor Richards	MR	MR	4.14	22.1	7.8	1.46	1/1/16	stable
Tyler Schweitzer	MR	MR	4.24	11.6	8.2	1.86	1/2/6	ramping up
Hagen Smith	unknown	MR	2.90	37.1	16.1	—	0/1/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

4 PIT · 2 CWS

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

PIT

4 R

10H · 1HR · 3BB · 5K · 19LOB

OBPe 0.368 · SLGe 0.382 · K% 13.2

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 14 K · relief 7.3 IP · 8 arms

CWS

2 R

8H · 1HR · 3BB · 14K · 16LOB

OBPe 0.342 · SLGe 0.394 · K% 36.8

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 4 ER · 5 K · relief 4.0 IP · 4 arms

PIT · standout lines

big nights

Esmerlyn Valdez (RF) · 1-2 | HR, BB, RBIHR

tough nights

Bryan Reynolds (LF) · 0-40-for-4

CWS · standout lines

big nights

Munetaka Murakami (1B) · 1-3 | HR, HBP, 2 KHR

tough nights

Miguel Vargas (DH) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K
Colson Montgomery (3B) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K