Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

MIN @ DET

Wednesday · September 9, 2026·full·gamePk 824226free Saturday

refreshed 401h 10m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Comerica Park

gametime 1:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

77°F

humidity 80%

wind

10 mph

cross LF to RF

precip

13%

overcast

park

DET

open · HP→CF 150°

wind impact on total

-0.09 R/Gnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Zebby MatthewsRHP · MIN	Keider MonteroRHP · DET
xERA 2026	4.56	3.42
xwOBA 2026	0.328	0.287
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.001	-0.015
xERA 2025	4.67	4.64
xwOBA 2025	0.333	0.332
Outs/TB 25-26	1.70	2.05
FIP 25-26	4.40	4.29
kwERA 25-26	3.58	4.09
K% 25-26	21.9%	17.4%
BB% 25-26	6.8%	6.5%
IP 25+26 combined	196.3	233.7
ERA actual 2026	4.69	3.52
ERA (L4)	2.42	6.00
WHIP (L4)	0.88	1.24
K% (L4)	20.0%	15.6%
BB% (L4)	3.0%	7.8%
IP/gm (L4)	6.50	5.25
L4 window	08/18→09/04 (4 st)	08/02→09/04 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	93 (−2)	89 (−6)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	3.50 (−0.71)	6.02 (+1.50)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.15	1.02

away arsenal — MIN

RV/100 -0.15

4-Seam Fastball—+0.10xwOBA 0.379
Slider—+1.80xwOBA 0.251
Changeup—-2.50xwOBA 0.328
Cutter—-1.30xwOBA 0.407
Curveball—-0.70xwOBA 0.195
Sinker—-0.40xwOBA 0.486

home arsenal — DET

RV/100 1.02

4-Seam Fastball—+1.90xwOBA 0.307
Sinker—+1.10xwOBA 0.309
Slider—+1.80xwOBA 0.232
Changeup—+1.20xwOBA 0.228
Curveball—-2.40xwOBA 0.342

away · MIN vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.804

Σ match

2.599

Σ FRV

-18.5

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	RF	Luke Keaschall	0.316	0.289	-10.2
2	3B	Brooks Lee	0.276	0.252	-0.9
3	2B	Kody Clemens	0.340	0.311	-2.7
4	DH	Josh Bell	0.334	0.309	-0.9
5	SS	Kaelen Culpepper	0.309	0.283	+0.0
6	LF	Trevor Larnach	0.324	0.302	-2.2
7	1B	Royce Lewis	0.313	0.282	-2.2
8	C	Victor Caratini	0.319	0.280	+0.6
9	CF	Walker Jenkins	0.273	0.289	-0.1

home · DET vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.968

Σ match

3.164

Σ FRV

-1.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	3B	Kevin McGonigle	0.351	0.389	-0.4
2	2B	Hao-Yu Lee	0.296	0.316	-8.6
3	1B	Colt Keith	0.334	0.358	-1.1
4	DH	Riley Greene	0.370	0.401	-5.6
5	C	Dillon Dingler	0.341	0.372	+11.5
6	LF	Brett Callahan	0.314	0.326	-0.9
7	CF	Max Clark	0.307	0.322	+2.3
8	RF	Ben Malgeri	0.326	0.352	+1.0
9	SS	John Peck	0.329	0.328	-0.1

defense · MIN catcher (Savant FRV)

Victor Caratini

FRV+0.6
framing+2.7
blocking+0.8
throwing-3.6

defense · DET catcher (Savant FRV)

Dillon Dingler

FRV+11.5
framing+6.2
blocking+2.6
throwing+2.6

MIN · Zebby Matthews

Last outing 2026-09-04 vs CWS · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	93
Location+	—	—	113
Pitching+	—	—	108
botOvr	—	—	59
SIERA	—	—	3.50

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-24 → 2026-09-04. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-04; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

DET · Keider Montero

Last outing 2026-09-04 vs CLE · 4.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	89
Location+	—	—	99
Pitching+	—	—	91
botOvr	—	—	52
SIERA	—	—	6.02

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-07 → 2026-09-04. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

MIN · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.33–0.48]

0.095 R/PA · 0.134 R/out · worst: Kody Funderburk (4.50)

DET · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.46R / inningband [0.35–0.57]

0.108 R/PA · 0.153 R/out · worst: Yilber Díaz (5.83)

MIN

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Yoendrys Gómez	CLOSER	CL	4.46	21.4	12.4	1.12	22/6/26	ramping down
Jeff Hoffman	SETUP	SU	2.44	34.3	9.3	0.94	5/18/16	stable
Kody Funderburk	SETUP	MR	3.95	20.0	12.5	0.94	1/11/1	stable
Taylor Rogers	SETUP	MR	4.15	18.9	11.3	0.82	2/9/10	stable
Andrew Morris	OPENER	MR	3.21	21.1	8.3	1.31	4/21/6	ramping down
A.J. Minter	MR	SU	3.69	22.0	4.7	1.00	0/8/8	stable
Tommy Nance	MR	MR	3.81	25.6	8.8	1.04	0/6/4	stable
Travis Adams	MR	LR	4.16	25.9	10.2	1.46	2/1/6	stable

DET

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Kenley Jansen	CLOSER	CL	4.83	27.0	13.5	0.89	18/1/22	stable
Tyler Kinley	SETUP	MR	5.19	22.9	11.9	0.87	1/13/9	stable
Kyle Finnegan	SETUP	SU	5.31	17.9	13.2	1.05	2/14/3	stable
Tyler Holton	OPENER	SU	4.09	18.9	6.0	1.06	2/14/8	stable
Drew Sommers	MR	MR	2.69	36.0	9.4	0.63	0/12/1	stable
Brant Hurter	MR	MR	3.61	18.1	11.4	1.21	0/1/4	ramping up
Beau Brieske	MR	MR	5.13	20.3	8.5	1.17	0/1/6	stable
Jacob Waguespack	MR	MR	5.35	15.9	11.0	1.30	0/5/4	stable
Yilber Díaz	MOP_UP	LR	10.70	14.3	17.9	0.67	0/0/0	insufficient data

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

2 MIN · 7 DET

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

MIN

2 R

5H · 2HR · 2BB · 8K · 8LOB

OBPe 0.242 · SLGe 0.367 · K% 24.2

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 7 ER · 10 K · relief 5.7 IP · 5 arms

DET

7 R

7H · 1HR · 8BB · 10K · 13LOB

OBPe 0.395 · SLGe 0.414 · K% 26.3

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 8 K · relief 5.0 IP · 5 arms

MIN · standout lines

big nights

Kody Clemens (2B) · 1-4 | HR, K, RBIHR
Josh Bell (DH) · 2-4 | HR, RBI, RHR

tough nights

Brooks Lee (3B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
Kaelen Culpepper (SS) · 0-40-for-4
Royce Lewis (1B) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K

DET · standout lines

big nights

Colt Keith (1B) · 1-3 | HR, K, 2 RBIHR

tough nights

Ben Malgeri (RF) · 0-4 | K0-for-4