Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

AZ @ KC

Wednesday · September 9, 2026·full·gamePk 824064free Saturday

refreshed 394h 19m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Kauffman Stadium

gametime 7:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

82°F

humidity 68%

wind

4 mph

in from CF

precip

24%

overcast

park

open · HP→CF 45°

wind impact on total

-0.15 R/Gminor in

Minor wind in: -0.15 R/G vs neutral. _Open exposed bowl on prairie — summer south winds blow OUT to RF, plays huge_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Zac GallenRHP · AZ	Daniel Lynch IVLHP · KC
xERA 2026	6.59	4.03
xwOBA 2026	0.384	0.310
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.011	-0.035
xERA 2025	4.27	4.55
xwOBA 2025	0.320	0.329
Outs/TB 25-26	1.70	2.17
FIP 25-26	4.77	4.24
kwERA 25-26	4.06	4.44
K% 25-26	18.9%	16.2%
BB% 25-26	7.8%	8.2%
IP 25+26 combined	290.0	134.3
ERA actual 2026	6.34	3.51
ERA (L4)	9.67	7.20
WHIP (L4)	1.66	1.47
K% (L4)	10.7%	7.6%
BB% (L4)	7.8%	9.1%
IP/gm (L4)	5.58	3.75
L4 window	06/20→07/07 (4 st)	08/07→09/04 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	87 (−0)	98 (−8)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	5.91 (+0.97)	4.61 (+0.28)
Arsenal RV/100	-1.21	1.05

away arsenal — AZ

RV/100 -1.21

4-Seam Fastball—-1.10xwOBA 0.440
Slider—-2.10xwOBA 0.360
Curveball—-2.30xwOBA 0.373
Changeup—+1.60xwOBA 0.273
Sinker—-3.80xwOBA 0.491

home arsenal — KC

RV/100 1.05

Sinker—+1.80xwOBA 0.307
Changeup—+1.20xwOBA 0.301
Slider—+3.20xwOBA 0.230
4-Seam Fastball—-3.40xwOBA 0.471
Curveball—+0.70xwOBA 0.327

away · AZ vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.775

Σ match

2.868

Σ FRV

+13.4

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	2B	Ildemaro Vargas	0.298	0.310	+2.9
2	DH	Ketel Marte	0.347	0.379	+3.8
3	SS	Geraldo Perdomo	0.328	0.333	+10.6
4	3B	Nolan Arenado	0.287	0.299	+3.1
5	1B	Tim Tawa	0.306	0.318	-0.2
6	LF	Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	0.273	0.274	-2.0
7	C	James McCann	0.293	0.297	-7.1
8	CF	Jordan Lawlar	0.300	0.317	+0.9
9	RF	Lars Nootbaar	0.343	0.341	+1.5

home · KC vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.797

Σ match

3.434

Σ FRV

+18.8

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	C	Carter Jensen	0.306	0.372	+1.4
2	SS	Bobby Witt Jr.	0.385	0.472	+16.6
3	1B	Vinnie Pasquantino	0.329	0.400	+0.1
4	DH	Salvador Perez	0.310	0.383	-9.1
5	2B	Michael Massey	0.305	0.372	+5.2
6	3B	Nick Loftin	0.294	0.352	-0.7
7	RF	John Rave	0.313	0.396	+0.9
8	CF	Kyle Isbel	0.260	0.324	+3.8
9	LF	Isaac Collins	0.295	0.363	+0.7

defense · AZ catcher (Savant FRV)

James McCann

FRV-7.1
framing-5.5
blocking-0.0
throwing-1.3

defense · KC catcher (Savant FRV)

Carter Jensen

FRV+1.4
framing+2.2
blocking-2.9
throwing+2.0

AZ · Zac Gallen

Last outing 2026-07-07 vs SD · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	87
Location+	—	—	108
Pitching+	—	—	97
botOvr	—	—	52
SIERA	—	—	5.91

Last 3 starts: 2026-06-26 → 2026-07-07. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-07-07; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

KC · Daniel Lynch IV

Last outing 2026-09-04 vs TOR · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	98
Location+	—	—	103
Pitching+	—	—	103
botOvr	—	—	54
SIERA	—	—	4.61

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-18 → 2026-09-04. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-04; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

AZ · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.42R / inningband [0.38–0.46]

0.099 R/PA · 0.140 R/out · worst: Derek Law (4.44)

KC · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.48R / inningband [0.41–0.55]

0.113 R/PA · 0.160 R/out · worst: Anthony Gose (5.92)

AZ

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Brandyn Garcia	SETUP	CL	2.28	32.3	6.1	0.83	5/16/6	stable
Juan Morillo	SETUP	CL	2.74	28.3	8.9	0.92	3/18/9	stable
Jonathan Loáisiga	SETUP	MR	2.86	19.0	4.8	0.93	1/10/11	stable
Kevin Ginkel	SETUP	SU	3.36	24.9	6.5	0.93	3/11/5	stable
Taylor Clarke	SETUP	MR	3.74	15.9	4.8	1.00	0/13/6	stable
Dennis Santana	SETUP	MR	5.14	21.4	10.2	0.95	3/5/22	stable
Derek Law	unknown	MR	3.08	12.0	4.0	—	0/0/0	—
Justin Martinez	unknown	MR	3.38	28.6	17.9	—	0/0/0	—

KC

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Alex Lange	CLOSER	MR	5.01	22.5	11.6	1.03	10/3/20	stable
Connor Thomas	BULK	MR	6.72	13.9	8.9	3.67	0/2/0	insufficient data
Steven Cruz	OPENER	CL	5.08	25.3	8.7	1.06	6/5/7	stable
Jose Cuas	MR	MR	2.73	22.5	12.5	1.27	0/3/4	ramping down
Nolan Hoffman	MR	MR	3.64	12.8	10.3	1.56	0/0/2	insufficient data
Craig Kimbrel	MR	SU	4.07	21.1	10.8	1.03	1/2/15	stable
Easton McGee	MR	LR	6.57	19.1	10.6	1.00	0/0/2	insufficient data
Nate Pearson	unknown	MR	3.37	21.5	11.4	—	3/5/0	—
Anthony Gose	unknown	MR	3.56	0.0	4.3	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

2 AZ · 5 KC

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

AZ

2 R

9H · 1HR · 4BB · 6K · 23LOB

OBPe 0.342 · SLGe 0.394 · K% 15.8

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 4 ER · 5 K · relief 4.7 IP · 3 arms

KC

5 R

7H · 2HR · 3BB · 5K · 7LOB

OBPe 0.313 · SLGe 0.448 · K% 15.6

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 6 K · relief 4.0 IP · 5 arms

AZ · standout lines

big nights

Nolan Arenado (3B) · 2-3 | HR, BB, RBIHR

tough nights

James McCann (C) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K

KC · standout lines

big nights

Carter Jensen (C) · 1-3 | HR, BB, RBIHR
Bobby Witt Jr. (SS) · 2-4 | HR, 3 RBI, RHR

tough nights

Salvador Perez (DH) · 0-40-for-4