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CIN @ LAD

Wednesday · September 9, 2026·full·gamePk 823900free Saturday

refreshed 392h 10m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Dodger Stadium

gametime 10:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

91°F

humidity 40%

wind

5 mph

out to RF

precip

clear

park

LAD

open · HP→CF 28°

wind impact on total

+0.07 R/Gnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Rhett LowderRHP · CIN	Yoshinobu YamamotoRHP · LAD
xERA 2026	5.18	3.03
xwOBA 2026	0.347	0.271
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.004	-0.023
xERA 2025	—	2.71
xwOBA 2025	—	0.258
Outs/TB 25-26	1.69	2.82
FIP 25-26	4.65	3.14
kwERA 25-26	4.41	2.99
K% 25-26	17.2%	27.4%
BB% 25-26	9.0%	7.3%
IP 25+26 combined	116.0	338.7
ERA actual 2026	5.43	2.67
ERA (L4)	6.65	2.16
WHIP (L4)	1.52	0.96
K% (L4)	13.1%	31.6%
BB% (L4)	7.1%	8.2%
IP/gm (L4)	5.42	6.25
L4 window	08/17→09/04 (4 st)	08/08→09/02 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	89 (+3)	100 (−2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.93 (+0.11)	3.04 (−0.38)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.50	1.43

away arsenal — CIN

RV/100 -0.50

Sinker—+0.50xwOBA 0.405
Slider—-2.00xwOBA 0.292
4-Seam Fastball—+0.50xwOBA 0.360
Changeup—-1.00xwOBA 0.299

home arsenal — LAD

RV/100 1.43

Split-Finger—+0.70xwOBA 0.219
4-Seam Fastball—+2.60xwOBA 0.324
Cutter—+0.80xwOBA 0.294
Sinker—+1.90xwOBA 0.263
Curveball—+0.70xwOBA 0.302
Slider—+1.60xwOBA 0.247

away · CIN vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.501

Σ match

2.503

Σ FRV

+5.6

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Carlos Jorge	0.260	0.280	+0.1
2	SS	Elly De La Cruz	0.371	0.320	+4.7
3	1B	Sal Stewart	0.350	0.311	-4.3
4	DH	JJ Bleday	0.343	0.313	-0.6
5	RF	Héctor Rodríguez	0.277	0.250	+0.5
6	2B	Juan Brito	0.277	0.275	-1.1
7	C	Will Banfield	0.070	0.249	-0.0
8	LF	TJ Friedl	0.248	0.231	+2.6
9	3B	Ke'Bryan Hayes	0.305	0.274	+3.7

home · LAD vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.889

Σ match

3.248

Σ FRV

-0.8

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Tommy Edman	0.314	0.363	+1.5
2	DH	Will Smith	0.379	0.426	-0.5
3	SS	Mookie Betts	0.331	0.373	+8.2
4	3B	Max Muncy	0.350	0.408	+2.9
5	LF	Teoscar Hernández	0.332	0.377	-6.1
6	RF	Kyle Tucker	0.324	0.347	-7.6
7	C	Hunter Feduccia	0.316	0.340	+0.7
8	2B	Alex Freeland	0.283	0.325	+1.0
9	1B	Enrique Hernández	0.260	0.289	-1.0

defense · CIN catcher (Savant FRV)

Will Banfield

FRV-0.0
framing-0.1
blocking+0.1
throwing—

defense · LAD catcher (Savant FRV)

Hunter Feduccia

FRV+0.7
framing+3.9
blocking-0.9
throwing-2.3

CIN · Rhett Lowder

Last outing 2026-09-04 vs MIL · 4.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	89
Location+	—	—	108
Pitching+	—	—	97
botOvr	—	—	55
SIERA	—	—	4.93

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-22 → 2026-09-04. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-04; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

LAD · Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Last outing 2026-09-02 vs STL · 7.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	100
Location+	—	—	105
Pitching+	—	—	106
botOvr	—	—	54
SIERA	—	—	3.04

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-14 → 2026-09-02. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-02; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

CIN · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.43R / inningband [0.38–0.48]

0.101 R/PA · 0.143 R/out · worst: Tony Santillan (4.70)

LAD · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.39R / inningband [0.31–0.47]

0.091 R/PA · 0.130 R/out · worst: Seth Halvorsen (5.30)

CIN

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Emilio Pagán	CLOSER	CL	4.69	24.3	6.6	0.91	22/0/15	stable
Graham Ashcraft	SETUP	MR	3.50	28.6	15.1	1.04	1/11/5	stable
Brock Burke	SETUP	SU	3.85	24.2	13.3	0.95	2/18/10	stable
Pierce Johnson	SETUP	MR	4.44	19.8	9.3	0.88	1/8/8	stable
Tony Santillan	SETUP	MR	6.88	19.2	13.4	0.91	5/11/11	stable
Luis Mey	MR	MR	3.38	32.2	14.0	1.24	0/4/0	ramping down
Tejay Antone	MR	SU	3.89	24.6	7.2	1.00	1/9/6	stable
Julian Garcia	MR	MR	4.61	24.2	9.6	1.62	2/3/2	stable

LAD

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Tanner Scott	CLOSER	CL	2.23	31.6	5.7	0.94	22/12/21	stable
Edgardo Henriquez	SETUP	SU	2.49	29.9	10.4	1.05	2/10/5	stable
Alex Vesia	SETUP	MR	3.38	30.2	14.4	0.76	3/19/6	stable
Blake Treinen	SETUP	MR	3.50	25.0	10.6	0.79	1/6/5	stable
Jack Dreyer	MR	MR	3.40	29.4	8.7	1.01	2/11/9	stable
Brock Stewart	MR	MR	3.78	23.2	11.0	1.06	1/7/2	stable
Evan Phillips	MR	MR	4.15	27.9	5.8	1.00	1/6/3	stable
Seth Halvorsen	MOP_UP	MR	6.54	15.0	14.2	0.90	0/2/4	stable
Justin Wrobleski	SP	LR	4.29	20.3	5.5	6.02	0/0/1	ramping down

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

1 CIN · 14 LAD

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

CIN

1 R

6H · 1HR · 1BB · 13K · 11LOB

OBPe 0.212 · SLGe 0.281 · K% 39.4

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 14 ER · 10 K · relief 4.7 IP · 6 arms

LAD

14 R

14H · 4HR · 6BB · 10K · 19LOB

OBPe 0.455 · SLGe 0.789 · K% 22.7

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 1 ER · 13 K · relief 2.0 IP · 3 arms

CIN · standout lines

big nights

Elly De La Cruz (SS) · 1-3 | HR, K, RBIHR

tough nights

Carlos Jorge (CF) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Héctor Rodríguez (RF) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
Juan Brito (2B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4

LAD · standout lines

big nights

Mookie Betts (SS) · 3-5 | HR, K, 2 RBIHR · 3 H
Max Muncy (3B) · 1-5 | HR, 3 K, 2 RBIHR
Kyle Tucker (RF) · 3-5 | HR, 2B, KHR · 3 H · 7 TB
Enrique Hernández (CF) · 2-4 | HR, 2B, KHR · 4 RBI

tough nights

Hunter Feduccia (C) · 0-4 | BB, R0-for-4